NotSoSuperNerd Ballot for 2024 Week 9
Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Oct. 20, 2024, 12:12 p.m.
Overall Rationale: Bradley-Terry rankings for the expected end-of-season win totals; Pr[A beats B] = 0.5+0.5*tanh(rA-rB). Prediction model is a hybrid Kalman filter, driven by the win margin of each game.
| Rank | Team | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Oregon Ducks
|
1.825 (10.8-1.2) |
| 2 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
1.661 (10.0-2.0) |
| 3 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
1.476 (11.0-1.0) |
| 4 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
1.457 (10.1-1.9) |
| 5 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
1.449 (9.7-2.3) |
| 6 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
1.402 (10.3-1.7) |
| 7 |
Texas Longhorns
|
1.385 (10.1-1.9) |
| 8 |
Iowa State Cyclones
|
1.277 (10.2-1.8) |
| 9 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
1.259 (10.0-2.0) |
| 10 |
BYU Cougars
|
1.252 (10.2-1.8) |
| 11 |
Kansas State Wildcats
|
1.235 (9.7-2.3) |
| 12 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
1.213 (8.9-3.1) |
| 13 |
LSU Tigers
|
1.191 (9.1-2.9) |
| 14 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
1.136 (10.0-2.0) |
| 15 |
SMU Mustangs
|
1.131 (9.7-2.3) |
| 16 |
Clemson Tigers
|
1.093 (9.4-2.6) |
| 17 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
1.030 (8.8-3.2) |
| 18 |
Illinois Fighting Illini
|
0.993 (8.5-3.5) |
| 19 |
Pittsburgh Panthers
|
0.944 (8.8-3.2) |
| 20 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
0.886 (8.6-3.4) |
| 21 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
0.865 (6.4-5.6) |
| 22 |
Wisconsin Badgers
|
0.859 (7.5-4.5) |
| 23 |
South Carolina Gamecocks
|
0.799 (7.3-4.7) |
| 24 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
0.775 (7.2-4.8) |
| 25 |
Missouri Tigers
|
0.732 (8.3-3.7) |
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Oregon Ducks
|
0.00 |
| 2 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
0.18 |
| 3 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
0.29 |
| 4 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
0.00 |
| 5 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
0.00 |
| 6 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
0.00 |
| 7 |
Texas Longhorns
|
0.00 |
| 8 |
Iowa State Cyclones
|
0.00 |
| 9 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
0.00 |
| 10 |
BYU Cougars
|
0.00 |
| 11 |
Kansas State Wildcats
|
0.56 |
| 12 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
0.42 |
| 13 |
LSU Tigers
|
0.00 |
| 14 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
0.00 |
| 15 |
SMU Mustangs
|
0.58 |
| 16 |
Clemson Tigers
|
-0.16 |
| 17 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
0.00 |
| 18 |
Illinois Fighting Illini
|
0.00 |
| 19 |
Pittsburgh Panthers
|
0.00 |
| 20 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
0.00 |
| 21 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
4.23 |
| 22 |
Wisconsin Badgers
|
3.10 |
| 23 |
South Carolina Gamecocks
|
1.98 |
| 24 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
1.11 |
| 25 |
Missouri Tigers
|
-0.41 |
Omissions:
| Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|
Boise State Broncos
|
1.33 |
Army West Point
|
0.45 |
Navy Midshipmen
|
0.39 |
Total Score: 15.19