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JeromesNiece Ballot for 2024 Week 9

Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Oct. 20, 2024, 9:28 a.m.

Overall Rationale: These are the teams I believe are the best in college football. In general, I would expect any given team to win more than 50% of the time on a neutral field against all the teams ranked below it. I start with an average of predictive computer models and make subjective adjustments as necessary. I do not believe that the result of one game is sufficient to demonstrate with 100% certainty the superiority of the winning team over the losing team. The transitive property does not exist in college football; the better team can and often does lose to a worse team. I am a Bayesian: I update my prior beliefs about how good each team is based on all new incoming evidence. I'm not going to rank one team over another just because one is undefeated.

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