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70stang Ballot for 2024 Week 6

Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Sept. 30, 2024, 2:54 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Welcome back to the Report Card Poll! THIS IS NOT A PREDICTIVE POLL. The key tenet of this poll is that pre-season polls are bullshit, and poll inertia is extremely bullshit. I endeavor to eliminate as much poll inertia as possible. This poll is entirely resume based. It is not intended to be predictive in any way. We're here to generate a Report Card. What have you accomplished on the field so far this season? That's the only question that matters. The result is generated almost entirely algorithmically. I reserve human input strictly for scenarios where things like head-to-head may be important (last year with Texas and Alabama is a great example). All P5 teams are equal, all G5 teams are equal, and all FCS teams are equal. This is a black box methodology. WEEKLY NOTES: We start to compute ranked wins this week. A ranked win is a win earned against a team that was ranked in the PREVIOUS poll, not necessarily in this one. For example, Alabama gets credit for beating a ranked UGA, but UGA (at 3-1) did not make my rankings this week. This is done to remove poll inertia and vicious circles. Next week, Alabama won't have a ranked win, because UGA is out this week. However, in 2 weeks, that ranked win may come back. As we get more weeks into the season, number of games played won't be different, and UGA would solidly be in this poll with only a single loss. We're still waiting on things to settle out a bit.

Rank Team Reason
1 BYU Cougars TIER 1 - Undefeated teams with 3 P5 wins There is a single team in the FBS that is undefeated with 3 P5 wins. BYU is that team. BYU is 5-0 with 3 P5 wins, including 2 away, as well as 1 G5 away win and 1 FCS win.
2 Texas Longhorns TIER 2 - 5-0 Teams with 2 P5 wins Texas is 5-0 with 2 P5 wins, including one away, as well as 3 G5 wins. Not playing an FCS game places them at the top of this tier.
3 Miami Hurricanes Miami takes second in this tier at 5-0 with 2 P5 wins including one away, 2 G5 wins including one away, and 1 FCS win.
4 Duke Blue Devils Duke is 5-0 with 2 P5 wins including one away, 2 G5 wins including one away, and 1 FCS win. With functionally identical resume, they lose out to Miami due to strength of opponent played. Miami is at 28th, Duke at 89th. However, they are above Indiana due to playing a G5 game away.
5 Indiana Hoosiers Indiana is 5-0 with 2 P5 wins including one away, 2 G5 wins, and 1 FCS win.
6 Alabama Crimson Tide TIER 3 - 4-0 Teams with 2 P5 wins Coming in with the first ranked win of my poll, Alabama tops this tier. I'd like to take a second and explain that they would be at the top of Tier 2 if they had played one more game, and that while this may seem silly, this normalizes over the season, and we won't have many ranked wins in the poll until the next week or two. Alabama is 4-0 with 2 P5 wins including one away and one ranked home win over UGA, and 2 G5 wins. They take this spot over Penn State due to strength of opponent played, at 2nd in the nation to Penn State's 27th. Alabama and Penn State top this tier due to having ranked wins, and not playing FCS teams.
7 Penn State Nittany Lions Penn State is 4-0 with 2 P5 wins including one away and one ranked home win over Illinois, as well as 2 G5 wins.
8 Oregon Ducks Oregon is 4-0 with 2 P5 wins away, as well as 1 G5 and 1 FCS win. Strength of opponents played places them above Iowa State and UNLV, at 32nd.
9 Iowa State Cyclones Iowa State is 4-0 with 2 P5 wins away, as well as 1 G5 and 1 FCS win. Strength of opponents played is 36th.
10 UNLV Rebels UNLV is 4-0 with 2 P5 wins away, as well as 1 G5 and 1 FCS win. Strength of opponents played is 49th.
11 Tennessee Volunteers Tennessee is 4-0 with 2 P5 wins, one neutral and one away, as well as 1 G5 and 1 FCS win.
12 Rutgers Scarlet Knights Rutgers is 4-0 with 2 P5 wins, including one away, as well as 1 G5 and 1 FCS win. They take this spot over Pitt due to strength of opponents played, at 62nd.
13 Pittsburgh Panthers Pitt is 4-0 with 2 P5 wins, including one away, as well as 1 G5 and 1 FCS win. Strength of opponents played is 71st.
14 Missouri Tigers Mizzou is 4-0 with 2 P5 wins, 1 G5, and 1 FCS. They have not played an away game, which lands them at the bottom of this tier.
15 Ohio State Buckeyes TIER 4 - Undefeated teams with 1 P5 win Ohio State tops this tier at 4-0 with 1 P5 win away, and 3 G5 wins.
16 James Madison Dukes JMU is 4-0 with 1 P5 win away, as well as 2 G5 wins including one away, and 1 FCS win.
17 Army West Point TIER 5 - Undefeated teams with 0 P5 wins This is basically the undefeated G5 tier. Army tops this tier at 4-0 with 3 G5 wins including 2 away, and 1 FCS win.
18 Navy Midshipmen Navy is 4-0 with 3 G5 wins including 1 away and 1 FCS win. They take this spot over Liberty due to strength of opponents played, at 104th
19 Liberty Flames Liberty is 4-0 with 3 G5 wins including 1 away and 1 FCS. Strength of opponents plays is 133rd (oof).
20 Notre Dame Fighting Irish TIER 6 - 1 Loss teams with 3 P5 wins Notre Dame is the only team in this tier, with 1 loss to NIU as well as 3 P5 wins, including 2 away wins and 1 ranked win over Louisville, as well as 1 G5 win to be 4-1. It's worth pointing out here that losing a game to NIU will eventually look worse than say, UGA's loss to Alabama, but for right now ND is being held up by the strength of games that they've won, as no other 1-loss teams have 3 P5 wins, and ND has a ranked win over Louisville. It's also worth pointing out that this is the start of the 1-loss teams in this poll; Currently, no 3-1 teams made it in. This will also normalize as more teams have bye weeks, but right now having played the extra game to be 4-1 helps a lot.
21 Oklahoma Sooners TIER 7 - 1 Loss Teams with 2 P5 wins, no FCS played Oklahoma tops this tier at 4-1, with 2 P5 wins including 1 away, as well as 2 G5 wins and a loss to Tennessee.
22 Michigan Wolverines Michigan is 4-1, with 2 P5 wins, 2 G5 wins, and a loss to Texas. They have not played an away game.
23 Colorado Buffaloes TIER 8 - 1 Loss Teams with 2 P5 wins Colorado tops this tier with 2 P5 wins including one ranked win away over UCF, 1 away G5 win, 1 FCS win, and 1 away loss to Nebraska to be 4-1. They are separated from Utah due to Utah losing at home and Colorado on the road. Colorado also beats them in strength of opponents played, with Colorado at 39th and Utah at 43rd.
24 Utah Utes Utah is 4-1 with 2 P5 wins including one away, 1 away G5 win, 1 FCS win, and 1 home loss to Arizona to be 4-1.
25 Illinois Fighting Illini Illinois is 4-1 with 2 P5 wins including one away, 1 G5 win, 1 FCS win, and 1 away loss to Penn State to be 4-1. There are plenty of other teams in this tier, like Kansas State, Boston College, etc, but Illinois came out on top. There are too many to list a "receiving votes"

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