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Tornadohunter24 Ballot for 2024 Preseason

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Aug. 20, 2024, 6:48 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Intro/Methodology: The wait is (almost) over; CFB season is back, baby! And I’m back to give another terrible list of teams that will end up aging horribly over the course of the next 5 months. While normally this is the part where I have a long-winded explanation that essentially boils down to record + results over brand and vote momentum, leading to a lot of poll fluidity and odd rankings near the beginning, I’m going to skip that. Instead, let me explain my top 25 for this preseason. Ultimately, what I’m trying to consider is not only how good a team is but how likely they’ll be able to remain in the top 25 by the end of the season. Take Florida (or my Yellow Jackets, who have their own gauntlet to run through this year), for example - they’re probably a decent squad who could hang in the top 25 on a weaker schedule. However, they have one of the hardest, if not the hardest, schedule on paper, and so I can’t really consider them as a potential candidate for the list. Oklahoma, while less extreme, is in a similar boat - a good to potentially great team stuck with having to run through a brutal season, where key injuries and close losses are incredibly likely. That’s not even mentioning the sheer amount of turnover many rosters have due to the new rules regarding the transfer portal and NIL. I’m also trying to stick away from being quantitative until we get further into the season and we really start to see what each team is made of. Who are the contenders and who are the pretenders? Who’s the dark horse and who’s the overrated team that falls flat on its face (hint: it’s probably at least one of Texas, Notre Dame, USC, Miami, or A&M)? Who’s a playoff team and who’s scrapping just to make a bowl? There’s a lot of questions, and while stats can probably help better than a more qualitative approach, I don’t want to get myself wrapped up so far I’m missing the forest for the trees. As a result, this ranking is more of an ‘eye-test’ list based upon my preconceptions regarding schedule difficulty, conference strength, and team ability than later in the season, once some games start being played. With all that said, you’ll probably note that I’ve dedicated the last 5 spots of my top 20 to G5 teams. Here, I’m doing my best to predict the team from each of those conferences most likely to be in contention for the Playoffs. Each of the teams there have had successful seasons in recent memory and are seemingly poised to make another run at their respective conference’s title, especially since many of their potential rivals have faltered over the break. Troy, JMU, New Mexico State, Fresno State, and Tulane all lost their coaching staff. Miami (OH), Western Kentucky, and many others lost their best players to the portal. The 5 I’ve listed simply have more resources, more talent, and more stable coaching regimes than the ones left off or kept in honorable mentions. While there’s always room for chaos, these are the 5 I think have the best chance of earning that G5 Playoff spot. What about the next 20, solely containing P5 teams? There, I again tried to combine schedule favorability with team potential, but even then this will likely change quickly and often over the course of the season. The Top 5 seems apparent, and I’m not deviating much from what appears to be the general consensus. Beyond that, though? Penn State and Ole Miss are about where many have them, but I don’t really trust Notre Dame to not find a way to lose a game they shouldn’t, so their ranking takes a slight bump down here. In addition, I actually expect one of the top 5 slots to actually be occupied by a B12 or an ACC team (if not both), but I’m less certain on which one that is, hence those conferences’ lower, more congealed placements. Michigan is another team I somewhat question, especially with their rigorous schedule, and while Brian Kelly is a good coach, it doesn’t seem like LSU has put it all together yet. Similar stories persist for Tennessee and Iowa, while a team like Arizona has some turnover to deal with, despite their incredible streak towards the end of the year justifying a higher placement. Truthfully, we’re almost guaranteed that at least some of these teams will underperform, just because of scheduling, if nothing else. But more importantly, I’m just happy college football is almost back. Can’t wait to watch my Jackets send FSU into a Ramblin’ Reck in the midst of the least drunk part of Dublin this weekend. | HONORABLE MENTIONS: Kansas Jayhawks, NC State Wolfpack, Fresno State Bulldogs, Oklahoma Sooners, Virginia Tech Hokies

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