Back to poll results >>

woakley Ballot for 2024 Preseason

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Aug. 12, 2024, 1:50 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Did this last year as well, but what I try to do in the preseason is create a ranking based on recruiting and prior year performance. I got the data from collegefootballdata.com and ESPN and messed around with the weighting until I got a result that made sense to me. This isn't something i'll base my polls off of going forward throughout the season, I only do this for the preaseason polls and do a true human poll for the regular season. Factors used: Recruiting Factor - Weighted 40% of total, meant to be a factor showing overall roster talent (didn't account for transfers out/early leavers for the draft because I have no clue how to do that) Factors within recruiting - 24/7 Composite total - 75% of Recruiting Total - Pulled the composite numbers for 2024 (20%), 2023 (32.5%), 2022 (30%), and 2021 (17.5%). I weighted the importance of recruiting years based on how I feel that each year would impact the current year - 24/7 Rankings - 25% of Recruiting Total - Same as above, just the rankings instead of composite; Composite Poll Factor - Weighted 25% of total - Meant to be a factor bringing in prior year performance and valuing those who had a good year last year - Final AP Poll - 75% of poll factor - This is only the top 25 plus receiving votes (in votes received order, ended up with around 46 numbered teams total) of the prior year, anyone not in this was numbered 55 to not skew these rankings - Final S&P+ rankings - 25% of poll factor - This is a full ranking of the top 130ish teams - thought this would be helpful to add because it actually ranks all teams not just 25; Production Factor - Weighted 35% of total - Meant to be a factor weighing returning production/starters. This is based on Bill Connley's article on returning production - this is from February so it's highly possible that it's outdated, but i'm not sure if there's a more recent one. You can read his article for the methodology he takes https://www.espn.com/college-football/insider/story/_/id/39436455/college-football-2024-returning-production-rankings-134-teams -Weighted Offense Factor - 50% of production factor, made up of following - Returning offense production - 60% of weighted offense - Offense unit rank - 40% of weighted offense - based on the S&P+ offense ranks - Weighted Defense Factor - 50% of production factor, made up of following - Returning defense production - 60% of weighted defense - Defense unit rank - 40% of weighted defense - based on the S&P+ defense ranks I'll put the weighted ranking of each team below in my "reasons" as well

Rank Team Reason
1 Texas Longhorns Recruiting Rank #4 Poll Rank #3 Production Rank #2 Overall Weighted Number 3.05 - Could see an argument for Georgia here too, but the returning production Texas has a QB pushed them over the top here I think.
2 Georgia Bulldogs Recruiting Rank #2 Poll Rank #2 Production Rank #9 Overall Weighted Number 4.45 - As I said above, could make an argument for Georgia #1 as well, but either way it's clear they're not out of the top 2.
3 Oregon Ducks Recruiting Rank #10 Poll Rank #5 Production Rank #5 Overall Weighted Number 7 - They lose Bo Nix but replace him with Dillon Gabriel, along with a strong recent recruiting record. This should be a good team this year
4 Penn State Nittany Lions Recruiting Rank #12 Poll Rank #10 Production Rank #6 Overall Weighted Number 9.4
5 LSU Tigers Recruiting Rank #7 Poll Rank #11 Production Rank #21 Overall Weighted Number 12.9
6 Missouri Tigers Recruiting Rank #21 Poll Rank #9 Production Rank #7 Overall Weighted Number 13.1
7 Texas A&M Aggies Recruiting Rank #5 Poll Rank #42 Production Rank #3 Overall Weighted Number 13.55
8 Ohio State Buckeyes Recruiting Rank #3 Poll Rank #80 Production Rank #3 Overall Weighted Number 13.7
9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish Recruiting Rank #8 Poll Rank #12 Production Rank #24 Overall Weighted Number 14.6
10 Oklahoma Sooners Recruiting Rank #6 Poll Rank #14 Production Rank #25 Overall Weighted Number 14.65
11 Clemson Tigers Recruiting Rank #9 Poll Rank #17 Production Rank #37 Overall Weighted Number 20.8
12 Florida State Seminoles Recruiting Rank #18 Poll Rank #7 Production Rank #36 Overall Weighted Number 21.55
13 Utah Utes Recruiting Rank #29 Poll Rank #31 Production Rank #10 Overall Weighted Number 22.85
14 Oklahoma State Cowboys Recruiting Rank #39 Poll Rank #19 Production Rank #8 Overall Weighted Number 23.15
15 Florida Gators Recruiting Rank #14 Poll Rank #53 Production Rank #17 Overall Weighted Number 24.8
16 Alabama Crimson Tide Recruiting Rank #1 Poll Rank #6 Production Rank #71 Overall Weighted Number 26.75. Note that the coaching change isn't factored in here.
17 Arizona Wildcats Recruiting Rank #45 Poll Rank #13 Production Rank #16 Overall Weighted Number 26.85
18 Tennessee Volunteers Recruiting Rank #15 Poll Rank #15 Production Rank #49 Overall Weighted Number 26.9
19 Miami Hurricanes Recruiting Rank #11 Poll Rank #44 Production Rank #33 Overall Weighted Number 26.95
20 Ole Miss Rebels Recruiting Rank #20 Poll Rank #41 Production Rank #26 Overall Weighted Number 27.35
21 Wisconsin Badgers Recruiting Rank #32 Poll Rank #45 Production Rank #13 Overall Weighted Number 28.6
22 Virginia Tech Hokies Recruiting Rank #35 Poll Rank #56 Production Rank #4 Overall Weighted Number 29.4
23 West Virginia Mountaineers Recruiting Rank #36 Poll Rank #28 Production Rank #83 Overall Weighted Number 29.45
24 Iowa State Cyclones Recruiting Rank #44 Poll Rank #51 Production Rank #1 Overall Weighted Number 30.85 - Note, TCU was in this spot, but I removed them as I didn't feel that Michigan should be outside the top 25. I didn't change the ordering of any other teams in my top 25.
25 Michigan Wolverines Recruiting Rank #13 Poll Rank #1 Production Rank #83 Overall Weighted Number 34.5 - As mentioned for 24, Michigan was actually outside of my top 25 when I performed this exercise. I didn't want to dilute Michigan's potential rating in the preseason poll and didn't feel it was appropriate to not include the defending national champions (despite the coaching change and other factors). The following teams would have been ahead of Michigan - TCU Overall weighted number 29.8, Nebraska 30.85, Louisville 32.65, Iowa 32.75, and Auburn 33.4

Back to poll results >>