NotSoSuperNerd Ballot for 2024 Preseason
Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Aug. 12, 2024, 12:15 a.m.
Overall Rationale: Bradley-Terry rankings for the expected end-of-season win totals; Pr[A beats B] = 0.5+0.5*tanh(rA-rB). Prediction model is a hybrid Kalman filter, driven by the win margin of each game. CHANGES FROM LAST SEASON: Reduced the prior as much as numerical precision allows, home field advantage added to the predictive model, and the zero point is now the median rating of FBS teams.
| Rank | Team | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
1.203 (9.8-2.2) |
| 2 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
1.192 (9.7-2.3) |
| 3 |
Oregon Ducks
|
1.052 (9.2-2.8) |
| 4 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
1.018 (9.5-2.5) |
| 5 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
0.982 (8.9-3.1) |
| 6 |
Texas Longhorns
|
0.947 (8.9-3.1) |
| 7 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
0.933 (9.2-2.8) |
| 8 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
0.907 (9.8-2.2) |
| 9 |
LSU Tigers
|
0.828 (8.4-3.6) |
| 10 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
0.794 (7.9-4.1) |
| 11 |
Kansas State Wildcats
|
0.736 (9.2-2.8) |
| 12 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
0.735 (8.4-3.6) |
| 13 |
Washington Huskies
|
0.731 (8.0-4.0) |
| 14 |
Missouri Tigers
|
0.727 (8.9-3.1) |
| 15 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
0.678 (8.1-3.9) |
| 16 |
Florida State Seminoles
|
0.608 (8.0-4.0) |
| 17 |
Arizona Wildcats
|
0.550 (8.3-3.7) |
| 18 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
0.550 (7.2-4.8) |
| 19 |
Oregon State Beavers
|
0.533 (8.7-3.3) |
| 20 |
USC Trojans
|
0.523 (6.2-5.8) |
| 21 |
Clemson Tigers
|
0.497 (7.8-4.2) |
| 22 |
SMU Mustangs
|
0.442 (8.3-3.7) |
| 23 |
Maryland Terrapins
|
0.426 (7.4-4.6) |
| 24 |
Utah Utes
|
0.410 (7.9-4.1) |
| 25 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
0.404 (7.5-4.5) |
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
0.00 |
| 2 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
0.79 |
| 3 |
Oregon Ducks
|
0.00 |
| 4 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
0.00 |
| 5 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
0.00 |
| 6 |
Texas Longhorns
|
0.00 |
| 7 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
0.00 |
| 8 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
0.00 |
| 9 |
LSU Tigers
|
0.54 |
| 10 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
0.76 |
| 11 |
Kansas State Wildcats
|
0.94 |
| 12 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
0.14 |
| 13 |
Washington Huskies
|
1.57 |
| 14 |
Missouri Tigers
|
0.00 |
| 15 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
-1.37 |
| 16 |
Florida State Seminoles
|
-0.93 |
| 17 |
Arizona Wildcats
|
0.30 |
| 18 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
0.27 |
| 19 |
Oregon State Beavers
|
5.96 |
| 20 |
USC Trojans
|
0.00 |
| 21 |
Clemson Tigers
|
-0.70 |
| 22 |
SMU Mustangs
|
2.03 |
| 23 |
Maryland Terrapins
|
2.14 |
| 24 |
Utah Utes
|
-1.53 |
| 25 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
0.00 |
Omissions:
| Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|
Oklahoma State Cowboys
|
1.10 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
0.41 |
Kansas Jayhawks
|
0.45 |
NC State Wolfpack
|
0.30 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
0.21 |
Total Score: 22.41