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shadowwingnut Ballot for 2023 Week 13

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Nov. 21, 2023, 6:34 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Works like a BCS style computer: No priors, no margin of victory. Numbers included in the explanations are mostly to show differences in ranking points and don't correlate to specific scores. SOS are according to this computer

Rank Team Reason
1 Washington Huskies No Change, 637.99, SOS: 21 - Number 1 last week and another top level win. Nobody should expect anything different until they lose a game.
2 Ohio State Buckeyes No Change, 582.62, SOS: 54 - As expected it all comes down to one game (even if Penn St is highly ranked)
3 Texas Longhorns Up 1, 581.88, SOS: 16 - That is a nice shiny SOS for a team ranked up here, which explains why (other than beating Alabama) why they are ranked up here. Top 1-loss team.
4 Michigan Wolverines Down 1, 563.28, SOS: 72 - When you play a 2-game schedule in a no margin of victory system, you don't get to be ranked number 1 or 2 until you've played both of those games.
5 Oregon Ducks Up 2, 546.84, SOS: 41 - 3rd Worst schedule in the Pac-12, if you are wondering how much the computer loves the league this season. Still a relatively strong schedule.
6 Georgia Bulldogs Up 2, 540.38, SOS: 69 - Reminder...no margin of victory. Which leaves Georgia and their terrible schedule ranked here. It's improved greatly the last 3 weeks but the letters SEC don't mean anything here nor does 2-time defending National Champion. Basically this says there should be no mulligan if they lose to Alabama as far as the playoff goes, not that they are undeserving.
7 Penn State Nittany Lions Up 2, 534.15, SOS: 9 - Top 2-loss team. Playing Iowa along with Michigan and Ohio St and also playing West Virginia (ranked 36 surprisingly) makes this schedule look very much better than it appears.
8 Alabama Crimson Tide Down 2, 529.75, SOS: 37 - Just keep winning. The drop is functionally the FCS penalty.
9 Florida State Seminoles Down 4, 515.01, SOS: 90 - Just noting that missing NC State and North Carolina in a very bad ACC while Duke collapsed because of injury has turned this schedule into a mess. And Florida won't help, just like it didn't help Georgia earlier this season when Florida was in much better shape record wise. And that says nothing about the Jordan Travis injury. Just keep winning and the playoff should still beckon, but it they get in, this is the team everyone wants to draw without the QB. Lowest P5 undefeated.
10 Missouri Tigers No Change, 505.57, SOS: 28 - At some point people will think Missouri is legit. I don't think the college football universe has accepted it yet this season, especially since this Missouri season is functionally the only non-Georgia/Alabama thing keeping the league afloat.
11 Oklahoma Sooners Up 1, 502.35, SOS: 30 - There's just nothing interesting about this team right now unless they backdoor into the Big 12 Championship Game. Especially with USC collapsing enough that a likely Alamo Bowl matchup is likely off the table.
12 Iowa Hawkeyes Up 1, 498.49, SOS: 56 - I made the computer originally to mock the BCS. THis ranking augurs for MOV to be added (I actually have an MOV model but I haven't run it for this season...off season project even if to only see how far Iowa falls.
13 Louisville Cardinals Up 2, 493.75, SOS: 83 - No, this team shouldn't be within 100 miles of the playoff even if it wins out and wins the ACC. The loss to Pittsburgh combined with that garish SOS should be more than enough to dismiss this team even before you realize a win over Florida St is weakened by the Jordan Travis injury in perception.
14 Ole Miss Rebels Down 3, 492.85, SOS: 29 - Another victim of SoCon Saturday in South, even if the team they played was a Sun Belt team. It just happened to be the Sun Belt team most associated with SoCon Saturday.
15 Oregon State Beavers Up 1, 477.41, SOS: 25 - Up after a loss? Yes. Most of their opponents won and losing to the number 1 team doesn't punish a team much. Highest ranked 3-loss team
16 Kansas State Wildcats Up 5, 474.98, SOS: 19 - Playing every top Big 12 team except Oklahoma along with surprising Missouri has given this team a stronger than expected schedule. That and winning most of the time helps the ranking of course.
17 Arizona Wildcats Up 3, 473.18, SOS: 26 - Oh what might have been. Can make the argument that if they had started the right quarterback from game 1 they might be undefeated. Still this is an amazing season and if they get some help they can win the Pac-12. If they get into the game, I expect them to win it. Why? Because forever cursed Pac-12, even in the end.
18 Utah Utes Down 4, 471.77, SOS: 5 - That is a shiny strength of schedule that keeps the now 4-loss Utes higher than most probably think they should be. But they've also played 10 P5 games with one more to go even if they lost to the 4 best teams on the schedule (all of whom are ranked higher). Highest 4-loss team
19 Oklahoma State Cowboys No Change, 457.74, SOS: 43 - Still the owner of the two most befuddling blowout losses of the season (yes more than Auburn losing to New Mexico St). Still one win away from Big 12 Championship Game.
20 USC Trojans Down 3, 452.36, SOS: 3 - Sure this team has 5 losses. So why are they ranked here? 1) That SOS is amazing. Only Purdue and Stanford have played more difficult. 2) Losses to good teams don't hurt a lot while a couple of early season wins on the bad part of the schedule (Arizona and San Jose St) are aging pretty nicely. 3) This system likes teams that have played more games. Points tend to go up over time. With no game next week, Notre Dame and UCLA will almost certainly pass USC along with others. In other words the only FBS team on a bye week next week is benefitting for now from the noise in the system.
21 Notre Dame Fighting Irish Up 2, 447.04, SOS: 27 - Honestly kinda befuddled why Notre Dame isn't a bit higher. The Clemson loss isn't bad (Clemson is up to 26th). I suppose a lack of truly good wins other than newly ranked here 8-3 NC State and 7-5 USC but still this one makes little sense to me.
22 LSU Tigers Up 2, 442.94, SOS: 24 - Everything I said about Notre Dame also applies to LSU. Sometimes a computer formula spits out weird things.
23 Kansas Jayhawks Down 5, 437.84, SOS: 18 - Now this makes all the sense in the world with an extra loss compared to Notre Dame and LSU. Texas Tech isn't even a truly bad loss all things considered for a 6-5 team (ranked 38). Still an insane accomplishment considering where this team was 3 years ago.
24 Tennessee Volunteers Up 2, 421.94, SOS: 17 - Proof that being in a power conference and playing all the good teams gets you a good enough strength of schedule to stick around as long as you don't take a bad loss. Considering I hate this ranking (though I understand it), here are the G5 conference leaders rankings plus James Madison since none of them are ranked this week here: 27 James Madison (SOS 104); 32 UNLV (SOS 91); 34 Troy (SOS 94); 41 Liberty (SOS 127 lol); Tulane 47 (computer hates everyone in the AAC, SOS 118); 60 Toledo (SOS 126)
25 NC State Wolfpack Up 6. 405.02, SOS: 71 - Dave Doeren does great work pretty much every year once his team falls into obscurity.

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