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CallingUagoatUgoat Ballot for 2023 Week 13

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Nov. 19, 2023, 11:28 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Wins earn a team points. Losses lose points. How many points earned/lost is dependent on the quality of a team's opponent (both at the time you played them and currently). Opponent quality is determined by SP+ ranking. Margin of victory (MOV) is not factored into these rankings, not because I don't think it's a good indicator of a team's strength, but because, at the end of the season, the CFP committee looks more at who you beat and less about how you beat them.

Rank Team Reason
1 Washington Huskies 48.5 pts. 1 SP+ T-10 win (Oregon). 2 SP+ T-25 wins (Arizona, Oregon State). Washington lost two SP+ T-25 wins (USC, Utah) and gained two more this week (Arizona, Oregon State) and moves up to take the top spot this week.
2 Georgia Bulldogs 43.5 pts. 0 SP+ T-10 wins. 3 SP+ T-25 wins (Missouri, Ole Miss Tennessee). The Bulldogs took home a third straight win against an SP+ T-25 team and moved up again this week.
3 Ohio State Buckeyes 42.5 pts. 2 SP+ T-10 wins (Notre Dame, Penn State).
4 Alabama Crimson Tide 42.0 pts. 0 SP+ T-10 wins. 4 SP+ T-25 wins (Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Tennessee, LSU). 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Texas). Alabama dropped 3 spots on their second bye week while UW, UGA, and OSU played and beat P5 teams. This probably won't matter in a couple weeks if they can pull off the upset against Georgia.
5 Texas Longhorns 39.5 pts. 1 SP+ T-10 win (Alabama). 1 SP+ T-25 win (Kansas State). 1 SP+ T-25 loss (Oklahoma).
6 Florida State Seminoles 36.5 pts. 0 SP+ T-10 wins. 2 SP+ T-25 wins (LSU, Clemson). Before Jordan Travis's injury, I seriously wondered if the CFP committee was going to leave an undefeated FSU out of the playoff in favor of a one-loss Pac-12 champion, Oregon, or a one-loss non-champion, Georgia. Now, with the new injury, I don't see any chance that FSU will get in, even if they find a way to win out.
7 Michigan Wolverines 34.0 pts. 1 SP+ T-10 win (Penn State). Michigan played a close one against the Terps, setting up an epic showdown with undefeated Ohio State. Winner goes to the playoff. Does the loser, without that 13th data point, have a chance to make the playoff?
8 Missouri Tigers 29.0 pts. 0 SP+ T-10 wins. 2 SP+ T-25 wins (Ole Miss, Tennessee). 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Georgia). 1 SP+ T-25 loss (LSU).
9 Ole Miss Rebels 29.0 pts. 0 SP+ T-10 wins. 2 SP+ T-25 wins (LSU, Texas A&M). 2 SP+ T-10 losses (Alabama, Georgia).
10 Oregon Ducks 27.0 pts. 0 SP+ T-10 or T-25 wins. 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Washington). This is probably the most unusual ranking in my model. Oregon has looked the part of a national champion team all season, including in their loss to Washington, but, with Utah and USC dropping out of the SP+ T-25, who is Oregon's best win??
11 Oklahoma Sooners 23.0 pts. 1 SP+ T-10 win (Texas). 2 SP+ T-50 losses (Kansas, Oklahoma State).
12 Louisville Cardinals 23.0 pts. 1 SP+ T-10 win (Notre Dame). 1 FBS loss (Pittsburgh).
13 Liberty Flames 22.0 pts. 0 SP+ T-10 or T-25 wins.
14 LSU Tigers 20.5 pts. 0 SP+ T-10 wins. 1 SP+ T-25 win (Missouri). 2 SP+ T-10 losses (Florida State, Alabama). 1 SP+ T-25 loss (Ole Miss).
15 Arizona Wildcats 20.5 pts. 0 SP+ T-10 wins. 2 SP+ T-25 wins (Oregon State, UCLA). 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Washington). 1 SP+ T-50 loss (USC). 1 FBS loss (Mississippi State). If there was an award for the most surprising team, I think Arizona would deserve it. The Wildcats have looked incredible lately and, shockingly, have a shot at the Pac-12 Championship Game.
16 Penn State Nittany Lions 18.0 pts. 0 SP+ T-10 or T-25 wins. 2 SP+ T-10 losses (Ohio State, Michigan).
17 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 18.0 pts. 0 SP+ T-10 or T-25 wins. 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Ohio State). 2 SP+ T-25 losses (Louisville, Clemson).
18 Utah Utes 18.0 pts. 0 SP+ T-10 wins. 1 SP+ T-25 win (UCLA). 2 SP+ T-10 losses (Washington, Oregon). 2 SP+ T-25 losses (Oregon State, Arizona).
19 Iowa Hawkeyes 14.5 pts. 0 SP+ T-10 or T-25 wins. 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Penn State). 1 FBS loss (Minnesota).
20 Oregon State Beavers 13.0 pts. 0 SP+ T-10 wins. 1 SP+ T-25 win (UCLA). 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Washington). 1 SP+ T-25 loss (Arizona). 1 SP+ T-50 loss (Washington State).
21 NC State Wolfpack 13.0 pts. 0 SP+ T-10 wins. 1 SP+ T-25 win (Clemson). 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Notre Dame). 1 SP+ T-25 loss (Louisville). 1 SP+ T-50 loss (Duke).
22 Tennessee Volunteers 12.0 pts. 0 SP+ T-10 wins. 1 SP+ T-25 win (Texas A&M). 2 SP+ T-10 losses (Alabama, Georgia). 1 SP+ T-25 loss (Missouri). 1 SP+ T-50 loss (Florida).
23 Clemson Tigers 12.0 pts. 1 SP+ T-10 win (Notre Dame). 1 SP+ T-25 win (North Carolina). 1 SP+ T-10 loss (Florida State). 3 SP+ T-50 losses (Duke, Miami, NC State). Welcome back to the Top 25 Clemson.
24 Toledo Rockets 11.5 pts. 0 SP+ T-10 or T-25 wins. 1 FBS loss (Illinois). Welcome for the first time to the Top 25, Rockets.
25 James Madison Dukes 11.0 pts. 0 SP+ T-10 or T-25 wins. 1 FBS loss (Appalachian State). The Dukes fell 11 spots after their OT loss to the Mountaineers. Sorry, but a loss to a bad team will do that to you.

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