Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Nov. 19, 2023, 5:41 p.m.

Overall Rationale: I have two predictive models - one that predicts how many points a team will score and one that predicts if they will win or lose. I simulate every FBS team against each other in each model and average the ranks based on who wins the most and who scores the most/allows the fewest points. Occasionally if there's a team that doesn't make sense based on the eye test I'll adjust or replace them (see notes for details). Other notes for this week: Utah, Liberty, North Carolina dropped out.

• Ballot
• Analysis

Rank	Team	Reason
1	Georgia Bulldogs	no change
2	Michigan Wolverines	+3
3	Oregon Ducks	+4
4	Ohio State Buckeyes	-1
5	Alabama Crimson Tide	-4
6	Washington Huskies	no change, moved up from 13 because they're undefeated
7	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	+4
8	Penn State Nittany Lions	+1
9	Florida State Seminoles	-2, I'm mostly adjusting to move up undefeated teams but FSU just hasn't passed the eye test for me - too many close calls against bad teams and now Travis is injured
10	Texas Longhorns	-2 according to model, but moved up ahead of Kansas State
11	Kansas State Wildcats	+1, moved down from 7
12	Oklahoma Sooners	-3
13	Louisville Cardinals	+6
14	LSU Tigers	-1, model still has them in the top 5 but they have 3 losses so I moved them down
15	Oregon State Beavers	+1
16	Missouri Tigers	-3, too close against Florida but still an underrated team I think. Manually moved up 1 ahead of Arizona
17	Arizona Wildcats	+6
18	SMU Mustangs	-2
19	James Madison Dukes	-2
20	Ole Miss Rebels	+5
21	Tennessee Volunteers	-3, moved down from 17 because 4 losses
22	Troy Trojans	-4
23	UTSA Roadrunners	+6
24	UCLA Bruins	+17
25	Clemson Tigers	no change but moved down from 18 because 4 losses

Teams Ranked:

Rank	Team	Unusualness
1	Georgia Bulldogs	0.00
2	Michigan Wolverines	0.20
3	Oregon Ducks	1.67
4	Ohio State Buckeyes	-0.71
5	Alabama Crimson Tide	1.30
6	Washington Huskies	-0.67
7	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	2.67
8	Penn State Nittany Lions	0.67
9	Florida State Seminoles	-2.30
10	Texas Longhorns	-1.80
11	Kansas State Wildcats	1.66
12	Oklahoma Sooners	0.00
13	Louisville Cardinals	-0.78
14	LSU Tigers	0.00
15	Oregon State Beavers	0.00
16	Missouri Tigers	-1.02
17	Arizona Wildcats	0.00
18	SMU Mustangs	2.89
19	James Madison Dukes	0.14
20	Ole Miss Rebels	-2.51
21	Tennessee Volunteers	2.24
22	Troy Trojans	1.94
23	UTSA Roadrunners	2.24
24	UCLA Bruins	1.16
25	Clemson Tigers	0.00

Omissions:

Team	Unusualness
Tulane Green Wave	1.26
Iowa Hawkeyes	1.30
Liberty Flames	0.32
Oklahoma State Cowboys	0.60
Toledo Rockets	0.32

Total Score: 32.33