NotSoSuperNerd Ballot for 2023 Week 13
Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Nov. 19, 2023, 12:54 p.m.
Overall Rationale: Bradley-Terry rankings for the expected end-of-season win totals; Pr[A beats B] = 0.5+0.5*tanh(rA-rB). Prediction model is a hybrid Kalman filter, driven by the win margin of each game. NOTE: I am only including FBS teams in the rankings this season, since this methodology greatly rewards teams with good records in lower divisions. FCS teams will be ranked separately in my r/fcs ballot.
| Rank | Team | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
7.35 (11.5-0.5) |
| 2 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
7.33 (11.5-0.5) |
| 3 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
6.71 (11.9-0.1) |
| 4 |
Washington Huskies
|
6.10 (11.7-0.3) |
| 5 |
Florida State Seminoles
|
5.58 (11.7-0.3) |
| 6 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
5.55 (9.9-2.1) |
| 7 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
5.37 (10.8-1.2) |
| 8 |
Oregon Ducks
|
5.25 (10.7-1.3) |
| 9 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
5.08 (9.7-2.3) |
| 10 |
Texas Longhorns
|
5.03 (10.7-1.3) |
| 11 |
Missouri Tigers
|
4.87 (9.6-2.4) |
| 12 |
LSU Tigers
|
4.75 (8.6-3.4) |
| 13 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
4.60 (10.6-1.4) |
| 14 |
Liberty Flames
|
4.45 (11.8-0.2) |
| 15 |
Oregon State Beavers
|
4.37 (8.3-3.7) |
| 16 |
Utah Utes
|
4.34 (7.9-4.1) |
| 17 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
4.33 (8.9-3.1) |
| 18 |
Arizona Wildcats
|
4.32 (8.7-3.3) |
| 19 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
4.27 (9.6-2.4) |
| 20 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
4.25 (9.7-2.3) |
| 21 |
Kansas State Wildcats
|
4.23 (8.7-3.3) |
| 22 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
4.22 (7.9-4.1) |
| 23 |
USC Trojans
|
4.09 (7-5) |
| 24 |
James Madison Dukes
|
4.08 (10.7-1.3) |
| 25 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
4.03 (7.4-4.6) |
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
0.79 |
| 2 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
0.20 |
| 3 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
-0.51 |
| 4 |
Washington Huskies
|
0.00 |
| 5 |
Florida State Seminoles
|
0.00 |
| 6 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
1.53 |
| 7 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
0.00 |
| 8 |
Oregon Ducks
|
-0.39 |
| 9 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
0.98 |
| 10 |
Texas Longhorns
|
-1.80 |
| 11 |
Missouri Tigers
|
0.00 |
| 12 |
LSU Tigers
|
0.52 |
| 13 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
-0.78 |
| 14 |
Liberty Flames
|
0.51 |
| 15 |
Oregon State Beavers
|
0.00 |
| 16 |
Utah Utes
|
6.38 |
| 17 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
0.00 |
| 18 |
Arizona Wildcats
|
0.00 |
| 19 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
-1.58 |
| 20 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
0.00 |
| 21 |
Kansas State Wildcats
|
0.00 |
| 22 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
1.50 |
| 23 |
USC Trojans
|
2.17 |
| 24 |
James Madison Dukes
|
0.00 |
| 25 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
0.00 |
Omissions:
| Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|
Tulane Green Wave
|
1.26 |
Oklahoma State Cowboys
|
0.60 |
Toledo Rockets
|
0.32 |
Total Score: 21.83