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ColombianInIowa24 Ballot for 2022 Week 15 & Bowls

Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Dec. 4, 2022, 12:23 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Loss based ranking to create tiers. Algorithm assigning points within and comparison across tiers. Mostly automatic with user intervention to settle ties. Not fully optimized yet, needs to be able to take into account quality of wins which will be done in future by ranking at time of win.

Rank Team Reason
1 Michigan Wolverines Model likes them better for some reason but I think Georgia is more impressive for reasons below. Still 13-0 B1G champ surely has some sort of claim to this title.
2 Georgia Bulldogs My personal top team, but I let the model have its way. I think Georgia did horribly in the SEC championship game. They let out a completely uncharacteristic number of yards and points. But, scoreboard. 50-30. Even on their bad days Georgia can beat good teams definitively and that to me shows Georgia is the most complete and thus best in the country.
3 TCU Horned Frogs Amazing game against Kansas State that through the first show of bad play calling led to their first loss. Still stellar team that went the regular season undefeated and took Kansas State (#9) down to the wire. Duggan for Heisman.
4 Ohio State Buckeyes When USC falls apart, Ohio State snuck in. Worse resume than TCU.
5 Penn State Nittany Lions Criminally underrated as always the Nittany Lions are the best 2-loss team in the country. No one else played them close in their 10 wins which cannot be said for the other 2-losses (barring Tennessee which got blown out by a 8-4 USC) and a closer than first glance loss to Ohio State and loss to #1 Michigan.
6 Utah Utes The highest ranked 3-loss after dominating USC. Two wins against the Pac-12 favorite ends one in this position, especially as a Pac-12 champ. Better than many 2-loss.
7 USC Trojans As I expected with Notre Dame (but not Utah) the USC defense is as bad as the UNC one. Fell apart like a house of cards without Williams carrying the stellar offense on the pillars of sand that was there defense. Certainly proved they weren't worthy to compete for a title until they learn that defense is actually a phase of the game(!).
8 Tulane Green Wave The best G5 team in the country. Avenged their loss to UCF in amazing fashion and is sadly the only G5 that will be in a NY6 when Troy is also certainly deserving. May as well be a one loss team with an inexplicable loss to Southern Miss. 10 loss to 11 win, certainly a marvelous story.
9 Kansas State Wildcats The Big XII champion! Held back by losing to the AAC champion though, and the second highest ranked 3 loss team.
10 Troy Trojans The second best G5, criminally underrated. Fluke loss to App State and loss to an Ole Miss (#30) that was still good in the season. Blowout over 2 loss team Coastal and great win against South Alabama lands them here.
11 South Alabama Jaguars South Alabama is the opposite of Alabama to my model. Held back only by a loss to Troy, it sees South Alabama as unlucky to not be an undefeated team with a near win to UCLA. Is this too high? Perhaps, but I am still tweaking my model hopefully to take into account rankings at time of win in the future. Not for this year though, as I wish the rankings to be mine alone, and my data does not go that far. Ultimately South Alabama is the first non-championship game in here and that in itself is impressive.
12 Tennessee Volunteers Couldn't beat Georgia and USC blowout loss gets one here I guess.
13 UTSA Roadrunners Meep Meep. Two losses one to a ranked team, and one in OT to a "better then team" gets you here.
14 Washington Huskies See Oregon State but one more win and a head-to-head makes the difference.
15 Oregon State Beavers Solid team all around and solid close to season gets one here especially when the Pac-12 is popping off.
16 Clemson Tigers ACC champs rises them a bit, but the down quality of ACC means little comes of it. Second worse 2-loss team. They didn't play nearly every team close and only horribly lost to Notre Dame (#27). Alabama is something else.
17 Florida State Seminoles Great close to season held back due to loss.
18 Oregon Ducks Not great close to season but overall alright. Lands them here. Lowest 3-loss above 2-loss.
19 Alabama Crimson Tide Literally redid my entire modeling from scratch in an attempt to see if I was perhaps biased against Alabama. This why I now operate hybrid. It changed nothing, and I think I see why. In the eyes of the model and mine Alabama is lucky to not be a 5 loss team and is masquerading as a two loss team. 2/3 of the points taken away (my model works by taking away points) are due to close wins rather than their close losses which the model deems permissible. It sees a weak SEC West with only 2 ranked teams, the other which Alabama lost to, and really worrying "squeak-by" wins to worse teams like Ole Miss, Texas and most worryingly Texas A&M.
20 Cincinnati Bearcats Quality losses TM. Model likes them for some reason and were held back only because UCF but now that UCF is definitively in the slight lower 3.5 tier can jump.
21 Texas Longhorns The best 4 loss team in the nation and the first to get in here. This is what happens when two of your wins are against conference champions. Wasn't considering 8-4 teams before.
22 UCLA Bruins How my model sees this team.
23 South Carolina Gamecocks Included 8-4 teams for their sake and they got in due to their win against Clemson. Looking good in close to season.
24 James Madison Dukes JMU is a weird school to deal with as they have 3 losses but only played 11 teams. As such I decided I would treat them as a 4-loss team but exempt from the normal head-to-head I look for within a tier of teams. The only other school that has secured this special exemption is Utah which earned it by winning one more game then the rest of its 3-loss bretheren. That is what ultimately allows them to be put here and above the others such as Marshall, the first one out.
25 LSU Tigers Not a complete team that looked embarrassing against Georgia on one of its bad days. Next 5: Marshall, Notre Dame, Mississippi State, Air Force, Ole Miss.

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