Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Oct. 16, 2022, 2:18 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Likelihood of wins+: A heavily resume performance-based metric that tends to reward overachievers more than underachievers. If a team plays a nobody schedule, they don't deserve by default a high rank until they prove it on the field against good competition. It attempts to answer the question of how likely is it that an average team would have the same record or better. The values shown are that computed likelihood. This methodology is more volatile earlier in the season.

• Ballot
• Analysis

Rank	Team	Reason
1	Tennessee Volunteers	0.00297614
2	Michigan Wolverines	0.00593939
3	TCU Horned Frogs	0.0133807
4	Clemson Tigers	0.0147446
5	Alabama Crimson Tide	0.0238838
6	UCLA Bruins	0.0334123
7	Ohio State Buckeyes	0.0357219
8	Georgia Bulldogs	0.0435629
9	Syracuse Orange	0.0530057
10	Ole Miss Rebels	0.0550282
11	Illinois Fighting Illini	0.0723243
12	USC Trojans	0.107561
13	Maryland Terrapins	0.110643
14	Purdue Boilermakers	0.110646
15	Kansas State Wildcats	0.114482
16	Texas Longhorns	0.128063
17	Oregon Ducks	0.128597
18	Wake Forest Demon Deacons	0.13074
19	NC State Wolfpack	0.144975
20	Kansas Jayhawks	0.166048
21	Penn State Nittany Lions	0.188086
22	Oklahoma State Cowboys	0.194644
23	North Carolina Tar Heels	0.196338
24	LSU Tigers	0.204373
25	Kentucky Wildcats	0.219322

Teams Ranked:

Rank	Team	Unusualness
1	Tennessee Volunteers	0.31
2	Michigan Wolverines	0.32
3	TCU Horned Frogs	1.36
4	Clemson Tigers	0.00
5	Alabama Crimson Tide	0.39
6	UCLA Bruins	0.35
7	Ohio State Buckeyes	-1.10
8	Georgia Bulldogs	-3.69
9	Syracuse Orange	0.16
10	Ole Miss Rebels	-0.64
11	Illinois Fighting Illini	1.19
12	USC Trojans	0.00
13	Maryland Terrapins	11.86
14	Purdue Boilermakers	3.97
15	Kansas State Wildcats	0.00
16	Texas Longhorns	0.09
17	Oregon Ducks	-0.62
18	Wake Forest Demon Deacons	-0.44
19	NC State Wolfpack	0.96
20	Kansas Jayhawks	4.71
21	Penn State Nittany Lions	-0.99
22	Oklahoma State Cowboys	-2.56
23	North Carolina Tar Heels	0.00
24	LSU Tigers	0.00
25	Kentucky Wildcats	-0.51

Omissions:

Team	Unusualness
Utah Utes	2.00
Cincinnati Bearcats	0.51
Tulane Green Wave	0.26
Mississippi State Bulldogs	0.16

Total Score: 39.16