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nw____ Ballot for 2022 Week 8

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Oct. 16, 2022, 9:46 a.m.

Overall Rationale: After about week 4 or 5, though, I try to avoid looking too much at the AP Poll or Coaches’ Poll— I don’t want to simply perpetuate the dominate narratives, I want to add my own, unique take. So, from there, I base my rankings on how I think the team has performed. I watch a lot of games every weekend, so how a team does there is a factor. I also try to remain as unbiased as possible. I have noticed that I definitely give more weight to an undefeated record than some of the more mainstream polls (e.g., UTSA’s run last year). I don’t care who you are or who you play, going undefeated at any level in CFB is very, very difficult, so I often wind up having those teams a few slots higher than other places (though not necessarily other r/CFB users). I have also noticed that I am willing to give a team that is elite on one side of the ball but kind of meh on the other more credit. Take Ohio State last year. Their defense was not great by their standards but I kept them a bit higher than some folks did because I knew very few teams (including the ones I primarily support!) would have any chance at slowing down their offense. Wisconsin and Oklahoma State are good examples of the inverse. Though they are my favorite teams’ rivals, there was no denying that scoring on those two defenses was extremely unlikely. I won’t penalize a team for “only” being elite on one side of the ball if the other side is truly elite. Another thing I try to do is rank teams over teams that they’ve beaten whenever possible. Say Florida State beat Florida but lost to Georgia Tech. Both are now one- loss teams. GT is a pretty bad loss this year but I just can’t justify ranking FSU behind UF if FSU has the head-to-head victory. I know that isn’t everyone’s philosophy but it is mine. In cases of a tie in my rankings, I almost always give the edge to the team with the better quarterback. If both teams have elite QBs, I will give the edge to the team with the better offensive and defensive lines. If that isn’t helpful, I will likely give the edge to the team with the better defense in terms of SP+ rankings. I don’t have a dedicated points system (e.g., BCS) or anything because I like the ability to retain discretion. For instance, maybe there are two one-loss teams that are just about tied in my rankings. If I feel one of them has been very lucky or happened to catch other teams at the right time (e.g., Iowa last year, unfortunately), I will give the edge to the team that I think has earned their record to a greater degree. This kind of thing would only happen if teams have the same record, though, as I wouldn’t put a 2-loss team over a 1-loss team because I thought the 1-loss team was “lucky.” Also, I do not penalize teams with early byes but will give extra credit to teams if they have an “extra” win. So, for example, if Utah was 8-0 and Clemson was 7-0, I’d give a slight edge to Utah, no matter how “good” their additional win was. This is the kind of thing that will work itself out as the season goes, but I believe teams deserve some reward for playing an extra game. Conference strength and strength of schedule both matter to me, but there aren’t many universes in which I am going to put a 8-4 SEC team over an 11-1 (and certainly not a 12-0) MAC team. Now, if the MAC team dropped a game or two, they may go from being ranked in my top 15 to being totally unranked (due to their strength of schedule) but I am not willing to penalize a team with an exceptional record for something they can’t control, like the conference they’re in. Besides, sometimes those G5 teams can be scary! They deserve a shot (e.g., Cincinnati vs. Georgia two years ago). An unorthodox thing that I do is penalize teams for **major** injuries (usually this just means a star quarterback going down but if a team relied heavily on a star RB— like Wisconsin and Braylon Allen— then they might get a slight dip, too). I kind of hate doing it but I think it is the right thing to do. Just look at how different Ole Miss looked in the Sugar Bowl after Corral went down. They weren’t the same team. And you’d better believe I’d apply this same criteria to Oklahoma— if Dillon Gabriel goes down and is replaced by *checks notes* Davis Beville or Micah Bowens, I am not going to assume they will be the same quality of team. It just doesn’t make any sense. (As an aside, I might actually bump Iowa up a spot or two is Spencer Petras went down— though I would never root for him to be injured) (As another aside, my examples here turned out to be pretty good. OU’s offense looked like… well, Iowa’s when Davis Beville was in against Texas. Fortunately, Gabriel’s injury won’t impact their ranking, as I have them ranked somewhere around that Nevada/Colorado/Hawaii-tier at the moment. What’s the real difference between a team being ranked 200 vs. 201? *cries*) One more thing I do is consider which teams kind of “haunt” other teams. For example, **prior to last season,** if I was trying to decide between Alabama or Georgia for the #1 spot, I’d give the edge to Bama, as UGA hadn’t yet figured out how to beat them when it mattered. I’d say the same for Ohio State and Michigan— it felt like Michigan lost to Ohio State 10x in a row. Now, in both cases, the underdog team finally got the monkey off of their back, so that would not apply anymore. Last year was a tough year for this criteria, as Oklahoma State also beat OU and Washington State also beat Washington. But, for some other rivalries, I think the criteria still applies (e.g., Florida over Tennessee, Iowa over Iowa State, Iowa over Nebraska). But, again, this would only be used for a tie breaker if I thought two teams should be ranked right around the same spot. **Another aside since I am updating my methodology (the text I submit, not the actual methodology). Looks like my examples for rivalries might also need be updated. How wild is it that Tennessee beat Florida and Iowa State beat Iowa in the same season??** It is a subjective system but it is one I feel confident in! I have been higher on teams than some others but those teams usually end up delivering come bowl season (for instance, I finished 186th in the r/CFB bowl prediction tournament). It works pretty well for me! — — — — — — — You vote what you see. For instance, if you watch enough quarterbacks, you can start to see subtle differences between the good ones and the great ones. A good example is Sam Darnold. I was never high on him. I just didn’t see it. When the ball left his hand, it didn’t look the same way as some other, more elite QBs. Similarly, I was high on Patrick Mahomes, especially after than shootout Tech had with OU in 2015 or 2016. The ball looked different in some unquantifiable way when it left his hand. It’s more than arm strength, too— I just don’t quite know how to describe it. The same is true for teams as a whole. Sometimes, you notice an offensive line just taking over a game. Other times, maybe it’s a running back who looks just a bit twitchier and faster than the rest (see: Bijan Robinson, unfortunately). Sometimes, you watch a team and they just look the part. The best example is probably Georgia’s defense last year. Players were absolutely *flying* around, laying the wood. But I thought Oklahoma State and Wisconsin also looked elite. They didn’t have the same athletes but they were always getting pressure or, somehow, hitting the ball carrier after like a yard or two. It was as if players just appeared out of thin air to make tackles— not super fast, just in the exact right places at the exact right times. I am not sure how you measure discipline or a team’s overall speed/athleticism, or a team’s toughness but they’re all real factors. I do my best to remain as objective as I can (though I am certainly not perfect) and try to recognize when teams have “it.” My last example is OU from last year. At one point, OU was like 9-0. I give teams credit for being undefeated but I was very hesitant to rank them too highly because they *absolutely did not* pass the eye test. I mean, they almost lost to Kansas for god’s sake. But more than the almost loss was the way the offensive line got absolutely pushed around by Kansas at times. That isn’t a team that was ever going to be able to compete against Baylor or win a playoff game. As much as I hated to see it, it was what I was seeing— I couldn’t deny that. I gave them more credit than I wanted at times because they were undefeated (which is, again, a very hard thing to do!) but just couldn’t see them making it where many OU fans thought they should go. All said, though, I try not to let the eye test be much more than a tie breaker— maybe it will help me figure out how to sort teams 1-4 but I would never use it to bump team 7 or 8 over a top 2 team. I am a firm believer that a team’s resume should be prioritized over the eye test. So, again, there were times that I put OU (and Iowa, too) higher than I actually thought they should’ve been, but I wasn’t willing to let my subjective perception of how well they *might* do against Bama or Georgia override what they had actually done on the field. My philosophy is that things will work themselves out. If you’re going to pull out a squeaker at Kansas, you just will drop a game at some point: problem solved. Or, if you’re Iowa, you’ll just get boat raced by Purdue, as is tradition. Things have a way of working themselves out, so I am not going to give myself too much credit by getting too cute. To me, that is the eye test. (And, to be clear, the eye test does not mean simply giving every tie breaker to the SEC team. Though SEC teams often have quite a bit of NFL talent, talent means nothing without cohesion, discipline, and playing as a team— just look at LSU and Auburn right now.) I also do consider who would win in a h2h matchup if trying to break a tie.

Rank Team Reason
1 Tennessee Volunteers I don't know that they're actually a better team than UGA or Michigan but they have a better resume (WAY better than Michigan). I am willing to give them credit for that and let the rankings play themselves out.
2 Ohio State Buckeyes Bye
3 Georgia Bulldogs Bye (jk they beat up on poor old Vanderbilt)
4 Michigan Wolverines Won in impressive fashion against a good PSU team. Did not think they'd win by as much as they did or look as good as they did while doing it.
5 Clemson Tigers I was not a believer. I had them ranked as low as almost 20 because of the offense. I've just got to eat some crow on this one-- this is a good football team
6 TCU Horned Frogs Shocked by the season they've had so far. Absolutely can't believe it.
7 UCLA Bruins bye. Though, TCU and UCLA are the Spider-Man pointing at other Spider-Man meme. Who do I have to pay to watch those two play?
8 Alabama Crimson Tide Tough loss. Not a lot of distance separating them from Tennessee but a loss is a loss. They got the edge over OSU and USC because I think they'd beat both teams on a neutral field (though not at the same time-- that would be crazy)
9 Oklahoma State Cowboys Same story as Bama-- not a lot of distance separating them from TCU but a loss is a loss. They got the edge over USC because I thought they'd win in a H2H matchup.
10 Ole Miss Rebels I am still just not a big believer in this team. How are you going to let AUBURN score that much on you??? A win is a win, but it was an ugly one. The closing stretch of their schedule is pretty brutal. If I am wrong, they'll definitely rub my face in it.
11 USC Trojans See above. I think they would've beaten Utah if they'd been at home. They didn't, though.
12 Oregon Ducks bye
13 Syracuse Orange They got the win I needed to see them get. Even though Leary was out, they still played well against an excellent defensive line.
14 Illinois Fighting Illini Totally impressed by how they looked against Minnesota. I thought that one would be much closer. We have got to start talking about Bert in COTY discussions. Seriously.
15 Wake Forest Demon Deacons bye
16 Penn State Nittany Lions Expected more from them, tbh. Pretty disappointing showing. Still, there aren't that many teams I'd rank ahead of them given the chaos of this year.
17 Tulane Green Wave An ugly win against ULM but I have a hard time ranking K-State over them since Tulane beat them H2H and they have the same record.
18 Kansas State Wildcats bye
19 Texas Longhorns Well, they won. It wasn't very pretty, though-- almost more like ISU lost. Matt Campbell in big games... woof. But, again, a win is a win.
20 Utah Utes SUPER impressed by them. I was just about ready to write them off and Rising and Kincaid had something to say about that. If they didn't have the extra loss, I'd rank them over USC.
21 North Carolina Tar Heels The defense is back to being bad again? Or is Duke's offense good? Either way, Maye is fantastic.
22 South Alabama Jaguars I am rooting for someone-- anyone-- in the Sunbelt to continue winning. Stop eating each other. Thank you.
23 Purdue Boilermakers A little too close for comfort against Nebraska but a win is a win. There just aren't many teams I'd put ahead of them at this spot.
24 Cincinnati Bearcats bye. But they're really going to have to do something to stay ranked for much longer (which is the same thing I said last week right before a bunch of other teams lost).
25 Kentucky Wildcats Of all my rankings across weeks, I feel the worst about this one. I really don't think Kentucky is a top-25 team right now. However, I couldn't find a way to justify putting a different team here. Who are the candidates? Seriously, please help me put someone else in this spot next week. (Darn Mike Leach... this is a Leach year, in which MSU will beat one team they have no business beating and lose to two teams they should've smoked. This is one of the latter, IMO)

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