Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Nov. 14, 2021, 7:22 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Season-long maximum a priori estimate under a Bradley-Terry probability model. Probabilities of future games are estimated using ESPN's Football Power Index, and FPI's influence diminishes to zero as the season progresses.

• Ballot
• Analysis

Rank	Team	Reason
1	Georgia Bulldogs	29.73
2	Cincinnati Bearcats	22.84
3	Ohio State Buckeyes	21.36
4	Alabama Crimson Tide	20.81
5	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	20.50
6	Michigan Wolverines	19.64
7	Oklahoma State Cowboys	18.73
8	Oklahoma Sooners	17.75
9	Michigan State Spartans	16.74
10	Ole Miss Rebels	15.53
11	Baylor Bears	15.37
12	UTSA Roadrunners	15.26
13	Oregon Ducks	13.53
14	Wake Forest Demon Deacons	13.22
15	Wisconsin Badgers	13.20
16	Iowa Hawkeyes	12.37
17	Arkansas Razorbacks	11.77
18	Houston Cougars	11.37
19	Texas A&M Aggies	11.13
20	BYU Cougars	10.97
21	San Diego State Aztecs	10.87
22	Penn State Nittany Lions	10.50
23	Purdue Boilermakers	10.42
24	Clemson Tigers	10.39
25	Pittsburgh Panthers	10.24

Teams Ranked:

Rank	Team	Unusualness
1	Georgia Bulldogs	0.00
2	Cincinnati Bearcats	0.00
3	Ohio State Buckeyes	0.04
4	Alabama Crimson Tide	0.00
5	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	0.18
6	Michigan Wolverines	0.00
7	Oklahoma State Cowboys	0.00
8	Oklahoma Sooners	0.84
9	Michigan State Spartans	0.00
10	Ole Miss Rebels	0.00
11	Baylor Bears	0.00
12	UTSA Roadrunners	0.00
13	Oregon Ducks	-1.47
14	Wake Forest Demon Deacons	-0.03
15	Wisconsin Badgers	0.16
16	Iowa Hawkeyes	0.01
17	Arkansas Razorbacks	1.05
18	Houston Cougars	0.00
19	Texas A&M Aggies	0.00
20	BYU Cougars	-0.48
21	San Diego State Aztecs	0.00
22	Penn State Nittany Lions	1.98
23	Purdue Boilermakers	1.94
24	Clemson Tigers	0.62
25	Pittsburgh Panthers	-1.11

Omissions:

Team	Unusualness
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns	0.58
Utah Utes	0.30
NC State Wolfpack	0.08

Total Score: 10.87