Fmeson Ballot for 2021 Week 12
Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Nov. 15, 2021, 1:58 p.m.
Overall Rationale: Win/loss only poll designed around how I would philosophically rank teams for the playoffs. It's not quite a predictive poll, it's not quite a resume poll. Instead, it tries to best guess a performance distribution based off of prior wins and losses. Then, we calculate an expectation value for teams playing a round robin using said probability distributions of all teams and teams are ranked by overall win rate. Teams in the 10-25 range are very close in value typically, and can be seen as somewhat interchangeable. So far, only UGA is really head and shoulders above anyone else.
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
0.00 |
| 2 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
1.56 |
| 3 |
Cincinnati Bearcats
|
0.00 |
| 4 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
0.93 |
| 5 |
Oklahoma State Cowboys
|
0.87 |
| 6 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
-0.34 |
| 7 |
Michigan State Spartans
|
0.00 |
| 8 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
-1.33 |
| 9 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
0.44 |
| 10 |
UTSA Roadrunners
|
0.32 |
| 11 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
0.00 |
| 12 |
Baylor Bears
|
0.00 |
| 13 |
Wisconsin Badgers
|
0.64 |
| 14 |
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
|
-0.03 |
| 15 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
0.35 |
| 16 |
BYU Cougars
|
0.00 |
| 17 |
Oregon Ducks
|
-2.66 |
| 18 |
Arkansas Razorbacks
|
0.70 |
| 19 |
San Diego State Aztecs
|
0.14 |
| 20 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
0.00 |
| 21 |
Kansas State Wildcats
|
3.77 |
| 22 |
Purdue Boilermakers
|
2.94 |
| 23 |
Auburn Tigers
|
1.86 |
| 24 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
0.31 |
| 25 |
Houston Cougars
|
-1.40 |
Omissions:
| Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|
Pittsburgh Panthers
|
1.43 |
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
|
0.58 |
Utah Utes
|
0.30 |
NC State Wolfpack
|
0.08 |
Total Score: 23.00