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crownebeach Ballot for 2021 Week 11

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Nov. 7, 2021, 1:33 p.m.

Overall Rationale: I began by ordering the teams by average scoring margin, re-ordered by strength of opposition as best as possible, and then adjusted on the basis of strong resume and peripherals. In this week's rankings, I did my best to respect head-to-head even where I think the line would be different if it were played again.

Rank Team Reason
1 Georgia Bulldogs
2 Oregon Ducks Higher than their scoring margin justifies, but propped up by the Ohio State win (FPI No. 3), and their per-play metrics are very sound.
3 Ohio State Buckeyes Have been slightly better than Oregon on a per-game basis, but I'm tiebreaking in favor of head-to-head. Think it still would be an even game if played again.
4 Cincinnati Bearcats Has a better average scoring margin than Oklahoma (+22.2 to +11.5) against a similar schedule (~100 to ~80).
5 Oklahoma Sooners Trending up. Average scoring margin before TCU: +5. Average scoring margin since Oct. 9: +21.
6 Alabama Crimson Tide Jekyll and Tide. I'm not saying Bama's not capable of ultimately being a playoff team, but they are being put in the field on old merit right now; they were the worse team against Florida, evenly matched against LSU, and needed a healthy shade of luck to beat both.
7 Oklahoma State Cowboys I did not predict this. FPI No. 5, second only to Georgia in metric defense, and ahead of Oklahoma in average scoring margin. The Big 12 has a legit title race.
8 Michigan State Spartans The universe balances luck out. Sparty was a hair fortunate to beat Michigan, so they got a dose of payback in the form of Purdue.
9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish Notre Dame has figured some things out, and though I don't think they're an elite team, their struggles with lesser teams are far from unique at this point.
10 Michigan Wolverines
11 Pittsburgh Panthers
12 Texas A&M Aggies Proved me very wrong against Auburn.
13 NC State Wolfpack
14 Ole Miss Rebels I still think the Rebs are suspect. Their defense is frail, and their peripherals aren't elite, but they've stomped the teams you would expect a good team to stomp.
15 Baylor Bears
16 Wake Forest Demon Deacons I am lower on Wake Forest than most. Their offense is very potent, but their defense is dreadful, and they've been playing with fire all season. I think they will lose to State this coming week at home.
17 BYU Cougars BYU got a ton of good luck against Utah and Arizona State, but they also got two weeks' worth of bad luck against Boise, so we'll call it a wash. Solid resume but dodgy peripherals.
18 San Diego State Aztecs
19 Arkansas Razorbacks I look forward to seeing what these guys do against Alabama. LSU showed that you can confuse the Tide in the secondary, and Arky is pretty strong in the trenches as well.
20 Utah Utes The most productive rush offense in the country on a per-play basis, Utah has been a completely different team with Rushing at quarterback. I think they are better than BYU and SDSU on an analytic basis, but I'm honoring the head-to-head result for now.
21 UTSA Roadrunners UTSA is another team with shaky peripherals (four one-score wins will do that to you), but 9-0 with four top-100 wins is a legitimately good resume in the context of Conference USA. M E E P M E E P
22 Penn State Nittany Lions
23 Arizona State Sun Devils ASU should probably be 8-1. They lost a combined six fumbles in losses to BYU and Wazzu, both of which I think would go differently if played again today.
24 Auburn Tigers I do not think Bryan Harsin was a good hire. His Boise State teams were extremely soft on the offensive line, and that ended up being Auburn's undoing as well against Penn State and TAMU -- two teams with mean, muscular defensive fronts that dared the Tigers to pass.
25 Houston Cougars No. 27 in SOR, but not much of a top-line resume to brag about. I considered Iowa State and Kentucky for this spot as well, but I ultimately concluded that their losses to WVU and Tennessee respectively weren't any more impressive than the one Houston dropped to Texas Tech.

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