DataDrivenPirate Ballot for 2021 Week 5
Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Sept. 27, 2021, 7:30 p.m.
Overall Rationale: I calculate the location-adjusted margin (LAM for short, 3 point home field advantage) and a weight for the game. The weight takes into account recency (more recent = higher weight) and whether the game includes an FCS team (less weight on FBS vs FCS games.) I then create an error for each game, which is (LAM - power rating)2 * weight. I treat each game as an equation, and treat the season as a system of equations, and solve to minimize the error function.
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
0.02 |
| 2 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
1.64 |
| 3 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
1.26 |
| 4 |
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
|
20.76 |
| 5 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
-0.94 |
| 6 |
Clemson Tigers
|
8.27 |
| 7 |
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
|
2.64 |
| 8 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
17.08 |
| 9 |
Washington Huskies
|
16.20 |
| 10 |
Kentucky Wildcats
|
4.13 |
| 11 |
Boise State Broncos
|
14.17 |
| 12 |
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
|
13.19 |
| 13 |
UCF Knights
|
12.21 |
| 14 |
NC State Wolfpack
|
3.12 |
| 15 |
UAB Blazers
|
10.19 |
| 16 |
Florida Gators
|
-0.17 |
| 17 |
Oklahoma State Cowboys
|
0.00 |
| 18 |
Kansas State Wildcats
|
6.96 |
| 19 |
Cincinnati Bearcats
|
-1.55 |
| 20 |
South Carolina Gamecocks
|
5.23 |
| 21 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
-3.97 |
| 22 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
-2.58 |
| 23 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
2.24 |
| 24 |
UCLA Bruins
|
-0.01 |
| 25 |
Michigan State Spartans
|
-1.40 |
Omissions:
| Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|
Oregon Ducks
|
6.62 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
6.20 |
Arkansas Razorbacks
|
5.77 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
3.53 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
1.94 |
BYU Cougars
|
2.22 |
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
|
1.18 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
0.91 |
Fresno State Bulldogs
|
0.88 |
Baylor Bears
|
0.65 |
Maryland Terrapins
|
0.08 |
Total Score: 179.89