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chrisb19 Ballot for 2021 Week 5

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Sept. 28, 2021, 8:15 a.m.

Rank Team Reason
1 Alabama Crimson Tide Alabama remains Alabama until proven otherwise. They have 3 opponents in common with Georgia this year so it'll be interesting to see how the 2 teams play against those shared opponents as they head toward what seems like an inevitable play-in game in December and a possible rematch in the CFP.
2 Georgia Bulldogs Georgia somehow still hasn't an allowed a touchdown on defense this year. Sure, schedule hasn't been that intimidating yet but this defense is one of the best units they've ever had. Offense is stacked as well with true freshmen stepping into starring roles and a typically deep backfield.
3 Oregon Ducks Oregon's been a weird team to watch this year. The scoreline against Arizona belies the struggles they had and how close the game was late. They also struggled against Fresno St, who then went on to be ranked. The Pac12 feels increasingly chaotic so I'm not sleeping on a trap game causing Oregon to slip up. But it *feels like* the talent gap is pretty substantial.
4 Penn State Nittany Lions 4-0 with 2 wins over marquis programs, even if Auburn is having a down year. Most teams would love to scalp an SEC team that isn't Vanderbilt. Looking ahead at the schedule there's a top-5 matchup with Iowa looming.
5 Iowa Hawkeyes I never buy Kirk Ferentz teams as a top-10, much less a top-5, but here we are. Iowa's 4-0 and has a top-10 win against their in-state rivals. This year it feels like most teams are overrated to varying degrees, which makes the wins feel less compelling. But with a field as big as college football, it's really all we have to go on.
6 Oklahoma Sooners *squints*23-16? 16-13? I guess with their impending move to the SEC, Oklahoma's decided to start playing like an SEC team. It's weird to think Lincoln Riley with his highly-touted QB are struggling this hard to put points on the board. And yet, they're still a top-10 team for now.
7 Cincinnati Bearcats Another team riding high on last season's performance and three wins to start the season. We'll find out a lot more when they play Notre Dame. Maybe the winner of that game gets the USC gig?
8 Arkansas Razorbacks I have been very skeptical of the Razorback hype train. Sure, they pommeled Texas but...but then they knocked off A&M. Despite Jimbo's struggles after his national title, you'd expect a guy with one of the biggest contracts in college football to be at least beat middle-of-another-rebuild Arkansas. On another note, I'm super happy for Sam Pittman. I do think this weekend will be very unkind to Arkansas.
9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
10 Florida Gators Welcome to the Quality Loss (TM) portion of the poll! Remember, a close loss to Alabama is genuinely worth more than a win against about a hundred other teams. Dan Mullen continues to do well at Florida, whose only ceiling for me is Todd Grantham, who's consistently a top-50 assistant coach but never seems to deliver championships. I suspect Florida will end the season 10-2 with an impressive NY6 win over one of the top teams that just doesn't have the same talent.
11 Ohio State Buckeyes of the Quality Loss tier, I still think Ohio St probably has a better track record than some of the teams ranked above them, and like Florida they'll have a great season even if they wind up on the outside of the playoff picture.
12 Ole Miss Rebels Hard to know what to make of Ole Miss thus far under Kiffin. I like what I see but it's still early and they've got a gauntlet per usual in the SEC West.
13 BYU Cougars BYU's quietly put together a decent record so far, with wins over three Pac12 teams. Despite not many ranked teams left (right now), an undefeated season would be impressive for them.
14 Michigan Wolverines John Harbaugh: too good to fire, too mediocre to ever win a championship. And the scheduling gods have favored Michigan early in the season - so far this squad hasn't looked like one that can take on either Penn St or Ohio St, setting them up for a likely 9 or 10-win season. The melody never changes.
15 Texas A&M Aggies Aggies benefit from being in the SEC West and a ton of preseason hype (which seems mostly due to the fact that nobody outside of the top 3 teams looked elite in preseason and we were collectively wrong about Clemson). Their loss to Arkansas, in the warped world of college football punditry, proved the Razorbacks are good, not that the Aggies are bad. But it seems hard to believe either team can stand up to Alabama. The Aggies do land a more favorable draw in cross-division play with Mizzou and SCar. I still think they've got a better shot at 2nd or 3rd in the West, once the real tests come in November.
16 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers The Chanticleers were the only thing that made last season during COVID half-watchable. I love this underdog story out of Myrtle Beach. And right now they're the best team in the Carolinas, which is wild to think about. They're hamstrung by a weak schedule but they're also dropping 40+ on their opponents. There's always going to be a talent gap between them and the powerhouses but they're a very fun G5 team, even if the Teal Field is an eyesore.
17 Michigan State Spartans Mel Tucker's had a pretty meteoric rise from Kirby Smart's DC to head coach of Colorado to an undefeated start at Sparty. That said, the month of November (starting on Oct 30) is going to be 3 ranked teams in 4 weeks. But even if the Spartans lose those 3 games they could be angling for a 9 win season. And right now I'd call it even money that they take the W against Big Brother.
18 Fresno State Bulldogs Props to the (other other) Bulldogs for scheduling Oregon and UCLA and splitting those 2 games. The rest of their schedule shapes up nicely and they'll likely finish the season ahead of most of the Pac12.
19 Oklahoma State Cowboys undefeated, but the wins haven't been against quality opponents and they eked out the W against Boise St. Per usual the Big XII is down except for the Sooners, but this weekend's ranked-on-ranked matchup between the Cowboys and Baylor should give us some indication of who else is for real in the Big XII. One will be a top-15 team; the other will likely be unranked.
20 UCLA Bruins Right now UCLA only has one ranked matchup left on the schedule (Oregon). Their win over LSU (who is having a down year) gave them a lot of hype and the loss against Fresno is now *almost* a quality loss. The Chip Kelly experiment seems to be paying off. UCLA is far from elite but the Pac12 South is so weak overall that they seem a decent bet to get a rematch against Oregon in the title game.
21 Baylor Bears Baylor's quality win comes against the now-unranked Hawkeyes, but they've got 2 ranked matchups in 3 weeks. I haven't watched much (any?) of Baylor this year but again, they're going to have a shot to make a case for "Best of the Rest" in the Big XII.
22 Auburn Tigers the scheduling gods have not been kind to Auburn. Credit to them for taking on Penn St and holding their own in a hostile away environment (Quality Loss!). But their upcoming schedule is @ LSU, vs Georgia (why in October WHY), @ a resurgent Arkansas, (bye), vs Ole Miss, @ Texas A&M. I know I said above that the SEC West is a self-perpetuating hype machine but throw Georgia into the mix and Auburn faces an absolute gauntlet. If they come through this stretch with 3 wins, it'll be impressive.
23 Wake Forest Demon Deacons yes, Wake doesn't have the win that NC State, but they don't have the loss either. And looking at their schedule it's hard to see where their first loss will come from before a very tough November (UNC, NC State, and Clemson). Very much a wait-and-see team although I think other teams losing might see them creep into the top 15 by default.
24 NC State Wolfpack NC State is tricky. A win over Clemson is always going to be quality, but a loss to Moo St is...confusing. Given the overall lack of strength in the ACC, it's going to be very hard to tell if the win over Clemson says more about the Wolfpack or the Tigers.
25 Clemson Tigers Clemson still has a world of talent and some of the best coaches in CFB. I think their problem right now is twofold: replacing Trevor Lawrence (DJ doesn't seem to be the guy) and a lack of the kind of backfield production they're used to having (Shipley is good, but he's young and not a replacement for the kind of production they got from Etienne). They played a very good Georgia team close and then reverted to their old habits of dropping a winnable game. If they can fix their offensive struggles, they're a more talented team than basically everyone on their schedule. A non-Clemson ACC champ...what a thing to think about.

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