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jchall3 Ballot for 2021 Week 3

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Sept. 13, 2021, 5:13 p.m.

Overall Rationale: My overall approach is to start in week 1 with teams ranked on the anticipated result if they played on a neutral field in the upcoming week (analogous to a power index). As the season progresses the ranking will then consider actual on field results with more emphasis placed on results as the season goes on. So for example, in week 7 the poll with be roughly weighted as 50% of what the anticipated result would be (a power index) and 50% of actual results (a resume). By the final poll I will rate teams based solely on what they actually achieved on field with good wins rewarded and bad losses punished.As a whole, I will rank teams week to week based on the whole of the team. Everything will be considered from in hard objective in game statistics to abstract subjective metrics such as game control. Injuries (both in game such as player being "banged up" as well as players being out) will be considered in the poll. Each team represents more than the sum of its parts and this is to be considered a through and through human poll.In an effort to avoid "poll momentum", I will conduct each poll independent of previous weeks. It would be more likely for a team to be "jumped" during an off week, for example, than for a team to increase (or decrease) in ranking due to unexpected wins and losses of other teams.Finally, as a point of emphasis I will avoid "meme" or "peoples" picks. I view the r/CFB as if it was a legitimate poll wire and take my picks very seriously. If a team is or is not on my poll it is due to both their anticipated and actual results.WEEK 3: Rankings are still heavily favored towards a "predictive" (or power) ranking however early upsets and big wins are now starting to be seen. While those may not have much impact on my ranking in and of themselves they have a huge impact on how I think teams would fare week to week. As such expect to see some big moves and the poll to stabilize more as we go into the mid-season.

Rank Team Reason
1 Alabama Crimson Tide Despite a slow start Alabama has done nothing but shown it is the team to beat this season. 
2 Georgia Bulldogs Georgia went out and did what it had to do. Don't sleep on this offense as their defense will keep them in any game this season and put them in a position to win against anyone.
3 Oregon Ducks Whoa and its the duck with the chair! Awesome performance. I slept on this team earlier and 100% own that. I have no qualms putting them at no 3. It will be scary to see the ducks with a fully loaded defense going forward.  
4 Oklahoma Sooners Like many other week 2 teams, OU did what they needed to do and are primed to take on the heart of their schedule. 
5 Iowa Hawkeyes Yep missed it here too. Iowa looks like the real deal and I am excited to see what they are capable. Like the ducks I now think they can go toe to toe with nearly anyone they face.
6 Texas A&M Aggies I know it seems harsh to keep dropping the aggies after wins but as this poll is still fairly predictive in week 3 I can't help but wonder what their ceiling is given their QB situation. Still think they can hang with the best but it looks very suspect now. 
7 Cincinnati Bearcats Best team in Ohio? Guilty until proven otherwise. I am high on this team and they will have some real opportunities to show it coming up.
8 Clemson Tigers Clemson bounced back the way they needed to, but like OSU they still have plenty to work on and it is yet to be seen how they hold up.
9 Ohio State Buckeyes It wasn't a good day. But its early and OSU has time to right the ship. While many questions still remain their talent and potential keep them in the top ten.
10 Notre Dame Fighting Irish Its tempting to drop ND based on Florida State's "Football" game they played but its not FSU's ranking. ND stays where they are but have big matchups coming up to prove their metal. 
11 Ole Miss Rebels I am still high on the Lane train. Katy and I agree that this offense is the real deal and the defense is coming around. Look out for the Rebels to make chaos in the SEC as we enter conference play. 
12 Penn State Nittany Lions Coming off their week 1 win, PSU did what they needed to do. Like UGA their offense looked much improved and they- like many of the top half top 25 teams- will be getting some real shots soon.
13 UCLA Bruins Don't worry- the Ducks haven't made me forget about you and your beautiful sissy blue. Some big showdowns are in the future and I fully expect Chip Kelly to have the Bruins where they need to be. 
14 Florida Gators Serious questions still surround this team but all of that can be put to bed with Alabama coming to town. I look for the Gators to keep it competitive but its a long ask against the Tide. I fully expect to see the Gators A game and show their true colors; that is as a top 15 team.
15 Virginia Tech Hokies I still like the hokies as a solid mid top 25 team. I think they are built to be scary to anyone in the ACC and have the talent to turn in a good season.
16 Arkansas Razorbacks Woo Pig! Yep totally didn't just swap them with Texas. I should have been high on Pitman and not Sark. Nevertheless look for the razorbacks to knock off some more great teams as they keep the buy in going. 
17 Iowa State Cyclones Yeah it didn't look good. While this poll isn't to the point of punishing defeats super harshly just yet, its the ceiling that doesn't look good. Having yet to score more than 17 points this season its easy to wonder if their is as good as they are or if there is more to come.
18 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers Hey winners win and thats what Coastal did. On a pure talent perspective I can't put them much higher but I do think they could scare all but the very top P5 teams. 
19 Miami Hurricanes The good news is that you didn't let Alabama beat you twice. The bad news is that it wasn't pretty. Miami still has everything in front of them and if they can come out of their date with Michigan State with a win then I really think the team will turn it around and be very competitive.
20 Auburn Tigers Preseason unranked? Check. Odd year? Check. An offense putting up 60 in games 1 and 2? Check. Spooky spooky. Watch out for these guys. (Also Harsin has done everything and more you can ask of him).
21 UCF Knights Still like the Gus Bus hire and still think this team deserves to be ranked. I expect them to make the most out of their last year(s) in the AAC and speaking of spooking, Mr. Mahlzon invented it. 
22 North Carolina Tar Heels A week removed from a tough loss to VT, UNC went out and did what it needed to do. I do think Mack Brown will have the Tar Heels building on the bitterness of defeat and I like the potential in this team to sneak up a bit higher. 
23 Arizona State Sun Devils And everyone says the PAC-12 is dead? Nonsense! Apparently Larry Scott was the problem all along! In all seriousness this team has some talent to sneak up on you and will have the opportunities to prove it.
24 Wisconsin Badgers The offense still needs to improve but their defense can keep them in the game with anyone. I like the badgers here and think they win their unranked games and give some real hassle to their ranked foes. 
25 Michigan Wolverines Don't @ me. They have talent and well, there was only enough room for Texas or Michigan. So here we are.... (seriously though they have the talent and can be dangerous if they ever get it all put together).

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