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hypercube42342 Ballot for 2021 Week 2

Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Sept. 7, 2021, 7:03 p.m.

Overall Rationale: I made a base ranking using an algorithm that incorporated preseason expectations (45%), recent history and results (10%, grouped by category, ie, natty contenders, P5 conference champions, P5 conference contenders + top G5, Mid tier P5 + G5 conference contenders, etc), and game results (45%--this also necessarily includes some priors based on preseason expectations. For these priors, I used the preseason AP poll, and the categories above for those not receiving votes). For UCLA, as the only ranked team with 2 games completed, game results were weighted correspondingly more heavily.Results were then hand adjusted using the eye test and recent history. This was mostly limited to places where I thought the algorithm overaggressively reacted to a single win, and used sparingly. Ties were also broken by the same metrics. Hand adjustments were limited to no more than a 2 spot movement in the rankings, and are listed by the teams adjusted (+ means moved to a better ranking)Next 5 out were UCF, Utah, Miami, Maryland, and North Carolina.

Rank Team Reason
1 Alabama Crimson Tide Computer rank 1, no hand adjustment
2 Georgia Bulldogs Computer rank 2, no hand adjustment
3 Clemson Tigers Computer rank 3, no hand adjustment
4 Ohio State Buckeyes Computer rank 4, no hand adjustment. Computer sees a big drop off between here and rank 5
5 Iowa Hawkeyes Computer rank 5, no hand adjustment. Computer sees a big drop off from rank 4.
6 Cincinnati Bearcats Computer rank 6, no hand adjustment
7 Texas A&M Aggies Computer rank 8, moved up 1
8 Oklahoma Sooners Computer rank tied for 9 with Texas, broke tie based on recent history and moved up 1. Preseason expectation ranking was quite high, as well as recent history, but a close game vs a G5 opponent ranked as one of the worst wins on the day, among the top teams.
9 Penn State Nittany Lions Computer rank 7, moved down 2 as I believe the computer overaggressively adjusted their rank based on a win over an opponent expected (but not known) to be good
10 Texas Longhorns Computer rank tied for 9 with OU, broke tie based on recent history and similar to Penn State, a win over an opponent that is expected to be good but is still a bit unknown
11 UCLA Bruins Computer rank 11. No adjustment. This team's results were counted more strongly than other teams compared to their expectations as a result of them starting in week 0.
12 Notre Dame Fighting Irish Computer rank 12. No adjustment
13 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers Computer rank 13, no adjustment
14 Florida Gators Computer rank 14, no adjustment
15 USC Trojans Computer rank 15, no adjustment
16 Oregon Ducks Computer rank 16, no adjustment
17 Auburn Tigers Computer rank 17, no adjustment
18 NC State Wolfpack Computer rank 18, no adjustment
19 Iowa State Cyclones Computer rank 21, moved up 2 slots as recent history suggests the close win vs UNI may be a fluke. Would move up significantly further if I hadn't established before running the computer that I would move teams a maximum of two spots.
20 Ole Miss Rebels Computer rank 19, moved down a slot to accommodate ISU.
21 Virginia Tech Hokies Computer rank 20, moved down a slot to accommodate ISU
22 Michigan State Spartans Computer rank 22, no adjustment
23 Arizona State Sun Devils Computer rank 23, no adjustment
24 Wisconsin Badgers Computer rank 24, no adjustment
25 Michigan Wolverines Computer rank tied for 25 with UCF, Utah, Miami, and Maryland. Tie was broken based on offensive efficiency from Michigan in their game, whose passing offense ranked 4th most efficient in FBS in points per attempt. I think that could help them this year, given their stacked RB room.

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