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moistats_ Ballot for 2019 Week 12

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Nov. 10, 2019, 6:03 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Top 4 seeds are given to teams that have shown the best performance in conjunction with projected chance of making the CFP (winning the conference is fundamentally important). The next 10 are those who are notable enough for discussion and eligible for NY6. Note: The top 10 are given priority to 1 G5 team, the P5 runner-ups, and any applicable independent schools. If any of those teams are not worthy of the ranking, they will go down to the next tier in lieu of a more deserving team. The remaining 11 are those who have been and should be performing amazing in the season. There is no bias at all beyond what is stated (i.e., conference affiliation outside of Top 4, active athletes, etc. are not used - just who is the best in order in my opinion). As such, no statistical methods are used other than references that may contain data, such as ESPN FPI and Wikipedia. (Note: If anyone is curious for my reasoning beyond what is given below, PM me on Reddit at /u/elefish92) Write-ups are given for Top 10 teams. Brief reasoning for the rest if needed.

Rank Team Reason
1 LSU Tigers LSU and Ohio State had a battle for No. 1 due to their dominance in the games prior to the Alabama win by LSU. Unfortunately, their schedules as a whole were equivalent and Ohio State dominated more (has blown out every opponent). Due to the statement win at Alabama, LSU has earned the No. 1 indisputably and knocked off Ohio State from my No. 1 spot.
2 Ohio State Buckeyes As for Ohio State, the win against Maryland just continued what they did - thrashing every opponent they faced. Unfortunately, they do not have any big wins against Top 15 teams. As such, I do not think it makes sense to give them the No. 1 spot when LSU does. They could take it back considering how they do against Penn State and Michigan, but that's for a different time.
3 Clemson Tigers Some of you may be asking "But Clemson basically has the same as Ohio State, what is up?" Well, Clemson barely beat North Carolina by 1 point. Ohio State literally blew out every opponent (and that is an understatement). That lone win against the Tar Heels puts the Tigers at No. 3.
4 Oregon Ducks "Oregon is high in my opinion because they have 1 loss." Cool, and in my poll I do not treat losses as the end all be all. Quite frankly, Oregon has shown that the loss to Auburn has been insignificant. The loss against Auburn scored a C grade in ESPN FPI, and that matches to a lot of wins that teams in the Top 4 have. In addition, Oregon has followed Clemson's path to a higher extent - dominating opponents on one hand and barely beating opponents on the other. Their "worst" performance was a 17-7 dub against Cal. The Pac-12 conference championship will be invaluable for their selection too. 
5 Minnesota Golden Gophers I finally have the satisfaction to put Minnesota in the top 5 due to their monumental win against Penn State. Minnesota is one of the few teams left that are undefeated and the win against Penn State scored a 97 (A+ mind you) in the ESPN FPI. The performance against a former Top 5 team is something not a lot of teams have on their resume. What is holding them back from being playoff bound? Ohio State in the B1G Championship (which will be likely). Just for the love of God don't lose against Iowa.
6 Georgia Bulldogs Georgia is a really fancy case. Georgia has a couple of Top 15 wins and has looked dominant otherwise. The only issue I have with the Bulldogs is their loss against South Carolina (even though it was a win that occurred in 2OT). I personally think that Alabama and Georgia are pretty similar by the pattern I'm going. Fortunately, being safe with dominant wins and a loss to the #1 team is worse than getting top 15 wins but having a head-scratching loss (yes, the team got an F against South Carolina, 12 points less than Alabama's loss). I could easily see a case with Georgia over Alabama though, do not get me wrong. Alabama's loss makes sense, Georgia's doesn't. But Georgia is overall a stronger team and that loss doesn't define them alone.
7 Penn State Nittany Lions I will not punish Penn State too much of the close loss against Minnesota. I do think the win streak from Iowa to Michigan State was impressive, all games score an A-grade by ESPN FPI standards. This team is all-around remarkable and has potential to make some noise against Ohio State. The thing holding them back is simply conference affiliation due to less opportunities (Georgia has more peak wins).
8 Alabama Crimson Tide "hEy wHaT iS AlAbAmA dOiNg OuTsIDe ThE tOp 4? iT iS bAmA !" I'm not one who falls for the eye test and immediately relies on the prestige of the program. Alabama is basically a mixture of Oregon's and Clemson's case - dominating insignificant (for this level of competition) opponents left and right but having a loss against LSU that could have been a win (which was their ONLY opportunity to do something in the Top 10). With a visit to Auburn later on in the season, I expect Alabama to struggle to get back to the Top 4. Not looking good for the Minnesota SoS before their Penn State dub.
9 Utah Utes Utah has pretty much the case with Georgia and Penn State, dominating insignificant opponents but getting the job done otherwise. Why is Utah below Georgia, Alabama, and Penn State? The Pac-12 Conference is weaker, which follows into having less opportunities to get A-grade performances (which Georgia and Penn State has more of AND took advantage of). Utah scored one A-grade performance, which was their win at Washington. The loss against USC is slightly more understandable, but is not enough to compensate. They'll have to wait for Oregon. Alabama is the same case as Utah BUT their loss is understandable.
10 Florida Gators I'll paste from the Reddit comment I made: "Pretty much how I feel about Baylor and Minnesota (before their win against Penn State). Their OOC is SFA (FCS), UTSA, and Rice. They also beat Rice by 8 points at their place. Baylor also barely beat Iowa State, TCU, Texas Tech, and WVU.I've been guilty of this in the previous weeks, so I could understand where the AP Poll committee is coming from. Hopefully Baylor shuts them (and me) up against Oklahoma." Florida's losses are also not awful and they have really amazing wins. I just can't put myself to put Baylor at No. 10 until they do something noteworthy. The exact same case with Auburn except Auburn lost to Florida.
11 Auburn Tigers
12 Baylor Bears See Florida's comment about Top 10 vs. Baylor.
13 Oklahoma Sooners The close win against Iowa State puts them down below Baylor. Oklahoma has been the same case as Baylor except with a loss. With Baylor hosting the Sooners, Baylor has a shot to win the Big 12 and secure a Top 10 spot from me at least. 
14 Wisconsin Badgers After a close look at Wisconsin and Illinois' improvement, they seem to be a slightly stronger team than Michigan. I need to see more of them (notably the last few weeks of college football). 
15 Michigan Wolverines I get that Wisconsin beat Michigan but Wisconsin lost to Illinois, but Illinois has been on a streak AND the loss was by 1 point. I genuinely need to see more from Michigan before I put them above Wisconsin now. 
16 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
17 Memphis Tigers PBeat SMU
18 SMU Mustangs 5SMU's highs are amazing
19 Cincinnati Bearcats WCincinnati's highs are great
20 Navy Midshipmen ENavy's highs are decent
21 Appalachian State Mountaineers R<3App State is a stupid strong team in spite of the awful loss against Georgia southern.
22 Iowa Hawkeyes Iowa's losses are to better teams as a whole than Texas'. Iowa also had a close fight against Wisconsin at their place.
23 Texas Longhorns I think Texas belongs here, and will end up in the lower tier of the Top 25. They just struggle to get the dub to teams that matter the most. 
24 Boise State Broncos Boise State is a lot weaker than the AP poll indicates. They have been struggling to win and has not had any amazing highs.
25 Oklahoma State Cowboys Very polarizing team, but I'll take it for now.

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