Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Nov. 12, 2019, 6:33 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Probabilistic model that uses Bayesian inference on a team's results to assign a probability of a team's rating given all their results to date. No information outside of the current season is used. Only scores of games (with MoV capped at 35) and home/away locations are used. No games against FCS opponents are counted. It is seeded from 0 each week and then iterated until ratings stabilize, so past weeks' results are reevaluated from the perspective of the current week. Numerical scores for each team represent how many points above or below average they are. Subtract scores to get an estimated spread between two teams, with 4 points give to the home team.

• Ballot
• Analysis

Rank	Team	Reason
1	Ohio State Buckeyes	36.6
2	LSU Tigers	27.8
3	Alabama Crimson Tide	26.1
4	Oklahoma Sooners	25.0
5	Clemson Tigers	25.0
6	Auburn Tigers	23.1
7	Penn State Nittany Lions	22.8
8	Utah Utes	22.6
9	Oregon Ducks	21.7
10	Wisconsin Badgers	21.3
11	Iowa State Cyclones	20.4
12	Georgia Bulldogs	19.9
13	Florida Gators	18.5
14	Navy Midshipmen	17.3
15	Michigan Wolverines	16.8
16	Iowa Hawkeyes	16.0
17	Minnesota Golden Gophers	15.6
18	UCF Knights	15.5
19	Oklahoma State Cowboys	15.3
20	Baylor Bears	15.2
21	Washington Huskies	15.0
22	Memphis Tigers	14.7
23	Kansas State Wildcats	14.1
24	Texas Longhorns	14.0
25	TCU Horned Frogs	13.1

Teams Ranked:

Rank	Team	Unusualness
1	Ohio State Buckeyes	0.15
2	LSU Tigers	0.00
3	Alabama Crimson Tide	0.63
4	Oklahoma Sooners	1.69
5	Clemson Tigers	-1.18
6	Auburn Tigers	1.99
7	Penn State Nittany Lions	0.17
8	Utah Utes	0.00
9	Oregon Ducks	-0.34
10	Wisconsin Badgers	1.13
11	Iowa State Cyclones	13.89
12	Georgia Bulldogs	-1.67
13	Florida Gators	0.00
14	Navy Midshipmen	2.01
15	Michigan Wolverines	0.00
16	Iowa Hawkeyes	2.26
17	Minnesota Golden Gophers	-3.17
18	UCF Knights	7.08
19	Oklahoma State Cowboys	3.79
20	Baylor Bears	-2.16
21	Washington Huskies	3.88
22	Memphis Tigers	-1.02
23	Kansas State Wildcats	1.57
24	Texas Longhorns	0.00
25	TCU Horned Frogs	0.23

Omissions:

Team	Unusualness
Cincinnati Bearcats	2.59
Notre Dame Fighting Irish	2.81
Boise State Broncos	1.33
SMU Mustangs	1.31
Indiana Hoosiers	0.46
Appalachian State Mountaineers	0.22

Total Score: 58.72