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Charlemagne42 Ballot for 2019 Week 12

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Nov. 10, 2019, 10:05 a.m.

Overall Rationale: 100% computer ballot. FORMAT: [computer score] commentary (change from last week) SELF-ASSESSMENT: 8 iterations (+2 from last week) GENERAL COMMENTS: I finally caved. My ballot has been very controversial, mostly because I haven't been afraid to rank teams in traditional "mid-major" conferences ("G5s") according to their performances on the various football fields. Data supported the conclusions that a few traditional G5s belonged in the top 10 last week. And yet, a poll of hundreds of CFB enthusiasts roundly rejected the conclusions borne out by the data, snubbing teams for what? a lack of history? daring to beat traditional favorites? So I'm caving to peer pressure. I built in a small anti-G5 bias into the component of my algorithm that evaluates the strength of an opponent. I sized it specifically to reduce the controversy of my ballot somewhat, without diluting the point: considering the data shows that G5 teams have earned rankings. Correspondingly, you'll notice arguably the best G5 team this year, Memphis, at #9. That's lower than the #6 they would have been without the adjustment. The rest of the AAC fell further, and the other G5 leaders fell about as far as Memphis. I'll probably still be controversial. I hope y'all are happy.

Rank Team Reason
1 LSU Tigers [2972] LSU now owns the best win in D1 football. (+1)
2 Ohio State Buckeyes [2923] MoV is capped at 25, but nice try Buckeyes. Get a better opponent next wee -- *sees Rutgers* -- oh. (-1)
3 Clemson Tigers [2703] Finally some damn R E S P E K ! or something. More like PSU lost and Baylor looked sketchy as hell, while Clemson polished off another ACC cupcake. I mean come on, y'all have an extra game on all the other undefeated teams, and you could only manage #3? (+2)
4 Minnesota Golden Gophers [2593] Minnesota might be the worst undefeated P5 I've ever seen. *But they are undefeated.* (+2)
5 Baylor Bears [2318] I lied. Baylor is the worst undefeated P5 I've ever seen. I mean, come on, this is the FOURTH refball game they've won this season - ISU, BUTT Bowl, WVU, and now the Revivalry. That's after triple-fisting cupcakes and nearly dropping a game to RICE to open the season. Baylor has every right to be 4-5 right now. I'll just list off the rankings of their defeated opponents, from top to bottom, discounting the Baylor game from their score: #27, #51, #53, #54, #72, #82, #112, #157, #216. Can you guess which ones are XII teams and which are Baylor's OOC opponents? That's right, the top six are conference opponents and the bottom three are Baylor's idea of a good schedule. (-1)
6 Penn State Nittany Lions [1831] (-3)
7 Georgia Bulldogs [1745] Georgia is more than happy to fill the space from others moving down. (+4)
8 Alabama Crimson Tide [1693] The computer was already pretty low on Alabama. Resolving the expected led to very little change. (-1)
9 Memphis Tigers [1665] I lied. *Memphis* owns the best win in D1 football, and the only one over a 9-win FBS team. (-1)
10 Oregon Ducks [1624] (+3)
11 Oklahoma Sooners [1497] Oklahoma jumped a lot of G5s despite a sketchy win over ISU. The winner of OU-Baylor next week will likely land at 5. (+7)
12 Utah Utes [1452] (+5)
13 SMU Mustangs [1450] Pretty much the only G5 to move up this week, with the changes to push down G5s unfairly. (+1)
14 Auburn Tigers [1326] (+5)
15 Cincinnati Bearcats [1202] (-5)
16 Boise State Broncos [1183] (-4)
17 Florida Gators [1155] The biggest winner in the War on G5s. Florida jumped 5 of 'em. (+8)
18 Appalachian State Mountaineers [1129] (-2)
19 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs [1068] The only other G5 besides SMU to move up this week. (+2)
20 Navy Midshipmen [1035] Navy got hit hardest out of just about everyone. (-11)
21 Texas Longhorns [982] Texas benefits from LSU's win, Oklahoma's win, TCU's 3OT with Baylor, and, oddly enough, Louisiana Tech also moving up. (+2)
22 Michigan Wolverines [966] Moving up from the Next Few Out category now that we aren't giving G5s any credit. (NEW)
23 Wisconsin Badgers [893] Also up from Next Few Out. (NEW)
24 Kansas State Wildcats [697] Sharp drop off from Wisconsin to KSU. The only similarly-scaled drop happens from 5-6, at the edge between undefeated and defeated. (-2)
25 Indiana Hoosiers [651] Not a coward. (NEW) NEXT SEVERAL OUT: 26. Notre Dame [634], 27. Wake Forest [619], 28. Texas A&M [578], 29. North Dakota State (yes, really) [548], 30. South Carolina [544.63], 31. Air Force [544.59], 32. North Carolina [541], 33. Iowa [529], 34. TCU [517], 35. Iowa State [513]. DROPPED: San Diego State (from 15), Wake Forest (20), UCF (24)

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