Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Nov. 11, 2019, 9:14 a.m.

Overall Rationale: To prevent the bottom of the rankings from being dominated by teams from chaotic conferences, adding a requirement for at least a 0.666 record or better. Will be removed after thing are more leveled out. Once a team has finally exceed 30% chance to win the national title.  National title probability will be used before playoff percentage.  Teams will be ranked by national championship probability for all teams with above a 5% probability. Next, ranked by probability of making the playoffs based on 538's predictive model until teams are below 5% then switches to ranking by Conference champ probability among teams tracked on 538's playoff predictor otherwise no G5 teams will show up. If there still aren't enough teams before conference champ probability falls below 10%, strength of record of the remaining teams is used to rank them.This helps better capture NY6 probability after playoffs become unrealistic/longshot goals for some teams. Additionally, as strength of record is one of the best predictors of CFP ranking, it helps reflect what the CFP values toward the bottom of the list.New rule going forward:

• Ballot
• Analysis

Rank	Team	Reason
1	Ohio State Buckeyes	National Champion: 30%
2	Clemson Tigers	National Champion: 27%
3	LSU Tigers	National Champion: 17%
4	Georgia Bulldogs	National Champion: 7%
5	Oregon Ducks	National Champion: 5%
6	Oklahoma Sooners	National Champion: 5%
7	Utah Utes	Playoff: 20%
8	Baylor Bears	Playoff: 18%
9	Penn State Nittany Lions	Playoff: 12% (gross they are over Minnesota, but can't change the numbers)
10	Alabama Crimson Tide	Playoff: 11%
11	Minnesota Golden Gophers	Playoff: 9%
12	Boise State Broncos	Conference: 60%
13	Cincinnati Bearcats	Conference: 52%
14	Memphis Tigers	Conference: 22%
15	Navy Midshipmen	Conference: 13%
16	SMU Mustangs	Conference: 11%
17	Auburn Tigers	SoR: #7
18	Florida Gators	SoR: #9
19	Michigan Wolverines	SoR: #14
20	Wisconsin Badgers	SoR: #16
21	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	SoR: #17
22	Appalachian State Mountaineers	SoR: #19
23	Iowa Hawkeyes	SoR: #20
24	Texas A&M Aggies	SoR: #22
25	Indiana Hoosiers	SoR: #25

Teams Ranked:

Rank	Team	Unusualness
1	Ohio State Buckeyes	0.15
2	Clemson Tigers	0.32
3	LSU Tigers	-0.95
4	Georgia Bulldogs	0.55
5	Oregon Ducks	0.09
6	Oklahoma Sooners	0.85
7	Utah Utes	0.19
8	Baylor Bears	0.00
9	Penn State Nittany Lions	0.00
10	Alabama Crimson Tide	-1.13
11	Minnesota Golden Gophers	-1.08
12	Boise State Broncos	1.83
13	Cincinnati Bearcats	0.67
14	Memphis Tigers	0.34
15	Navy Midshipmen	1.64
16	SMU Mustangs	0.58
17	Auburn Tigers	-0.75
18	Florida Gators	-1.38
19	Michigan Wolverines	-0.94
20	Wisconsin Badgers	-1.06
21	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	-0.78
22	Appalachian State Mountaineers	0.00
23	Iowa Hawkeyes	0.00
24	Texas A&M Aggies	0.71
25	Indiana Hoosiers	-0.01

Omissions:

Team	Unusualness
Texas Longhorns	0.40

Total Score: 16.39