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stripes361 Ballot for 2019 Week 6

Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Sept. 29, 2019, 8:20 p.m.

Overall Rationale: This is a forward-looking, predictive ballot. It is not a resume ranking. I start with an aggregate of the FPI and SP+ computer rankings and then adjust the teams based off of several "human" factors, including coaching, QB play, roster balance, eye test, and injuries. Because it is forward-looking, long-term injuries can significantly alter a team's ranking even before on-field performance has been affected.

Rank Team Reason
1 Ohio State Buckeyes For the first time this season, we have a change at #1. Ohio State jumps both Clemson and Alabama after Clemson's close call against UNC and Alabama's continued defensive struggles. I expected a blowout of Nebraska so my evaluation of the Buckeyes in an absolute sense hasn't risen much but there is something to be said for consistent dominance. I still want to see what Ohio State can do against some quality competition but for now they deserve the top spot.
2 Alabama Crimson Tide
3 Clemson Tigers
4 Georgia Bulldogs
5 LSU Tigers
6 Oklahoma Sooners I almost pulled the trigger on jumping OU over LSU. Neck and neck with them right now.
7 Auburn Tigers It seems increasingly likely that Miss State was badly overrated in the preseason but Auburn's dismantling of the Bulldogs was still impressive, as was Bo Nix's hyper-efficient stat line. The Tigers earned a jump over Wisconsin and could soon be pushing the elite "Top 6" tier as well.
8 Wisconsin Badgers Jack Coan failed his first big test of the season, failing to make big plays against a staunch Northwestern defense. There's no shame in struggling against Northwestern but it does convey that "Here we go again" feeling for a Wisconsin program which has repeatedly been a QB away from a national title caliber team over recent years.
9 Penn State Nittany Lions Early in the season I have managed to avoid ranking most of the fad teams like Maryland and Penn State's defense brought out the same weaknesses in Justin Jackson's game that existed at Virginia Tech. He's going to have a lot of success distributing the ball to his talented teammates when they can win matchup battles but against defenses as sound as Penn State's the Terrapins will struggle immensely. It's hard to tell how much credence to put into the scoring explosion but Clifford, as a first year starter, still has a lot of potential for growth and it just might be that Penn State are starting to fire on all cylinders.
10 Oregon Ducks
11 Washington Huskies Washington jumps Notre Dame and Texas with an impressive performance against USC. The Trojans are a bit of an anomaly so it's hard to tell how much credit the Huskies should receive but for now I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt.
12 Notre Dame Fighting Irish Notre Dame's defensive line almost single-handedly won them their ranked matchup against Virginia, creating two touchdowns with long fumble returns and also taking the ball away multiple times when Virginia was in field goal range. That's almost a 17-20 point swing in a 15 point game. It's refreshing to see dominance from individual position groups but I'm still concerned about a Notre Dame passing attack which has struggled to create against Georgia and Virginia.
13 Texas Longhorns Washington jumped Texas through an impressive performance, which leads to the irksome phenomenon of Texas "dropping" one spot on a bye week. Still, I actually have Texas ranked well ahead of where the FPI and SP+ have them and feel optimistic about their potential to rise as the season goes on.
14 Florida Gators
15 Iowa Hawkeyes
16 Michigan State Spartans
17 UCF Knights Bettors who picked UCF and the under have learned a lesson about gambling that they will never forget as UConn backdoor covered the spread and hit the over in the 4th quarter. UCF backed off after building a 56 point lead that not even Washington State could blow.
18 Utah Utes Utah jumps Missouri with an impressive dismantling of Washington State.
19 Missouri Tigers
20 Oklahoma State Cowboys
21 Texas A&M Aggies Texas A&M won an SEC road game this past weekend, so naturally I dropped them 7 spots. I am very low on Arkansas and am becoming really concerned with Jimbo Fisher's (lack of) progress in elevating this program to the next level.
22 Michigan Wolverines The computers still love Michigan, with both FPI and SP+ ranking the Wolverines in the Top 15. I'm not buying into the dismantlings of Middle Tennessee and Rutgers until they can erase the sting of the Wisconsin fiasco by showing up against a premier opponent.
23 USC Trojans USC doesn't fall far after a decent performance in a loss to Washington.
24 TCU Horned Frogs
25 Baylor Bears Honorable Mention: Iowa State, Cincinnati, SMU

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