/r/CFB Poll

Overall Rationale: See previous weeks for complete description. Strength of Record-based system that accounts for who you played, where you played them, how good they are now, and how badly you beat them.

Rank	Team	Reason
1	Alabama Crimson Tide	2909
2	Clemson Tigers	2903
3	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	2659
4	Michigan Wolverines	2516
5	Georgia Bulldogs	2441
6	Oklahoma Sooners	2271
7	LSU Tigers	2167
8	UCF Knights	1882
9	Ohio State Buckeyes	1826
10	Washington State Cougars	1738
11	West Virginia Mountaineers	1721
12	Fresno State Bulldogs	1663
13	Michigan State Spartans	1653; Why Michigan State here? First, note that the scores from #12 to #17 are very, very close - almost interchangeable. Now, note that the model is extremely impressed with MSU being Utah State's only loss. The Big Ten East is also one of the model's favorite divisions, so it's more impressed by a win over Penn State than, say, USC.
14	UAB Blazers	1624; Why UAB here? Again, tight spread from #12 to #17. Oh, you mean why is UAB ranked at all? Because they're 8-1, they have their division locked up tight, and they've allowed 38 points over their last 6 games - 21 of which were to 7-2 UNT, whose only other loss besides UAB is to Louisiana Tech -- whose three losses are #7 LSU, #31 Mississippi State.... and #14 UAB. The Blazers are absolutely dominating the C-USA.
15	Utah State Aggies	1616
16	Syracuse Orange	1606
17	Kentucky Wildcats	1586
18	Cincinnati Bearcats	1545
19	Texas Longhorns	1509
20	Boise State Broncos	1502
21	Buffalo Bulls	1488
22	Purdue Boilermakers	1485; I know, I know: why is a four-loss team ranked? Because they beat Ohio State, they beat Iowa, and they beat Boston College who is apparently sort of decent. That, and most of their losses are fairly forgivable - close games to strong opponents. And also EMU.
23	NC State Wolfpack	1426
24	Army West Point	1424
25	Penn State Nittany Lions	1415; Next 5 out: Boston College (1381), Iowa State (1378), Florida (1375), Duke (1369), Auburn (1340)

Teams Ranked:

Rank	Team	Unusualness
1	Alabama Crimson Tide	0.00
2	Clemson Tigers	0.00
3	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	0.00
4	Michigan Wolverines	0.00
5	Georgia Bulldogs	0.00
6	Oklahoma Sooners	0.00
7	LSU Tigers	0.27
8	UCF Knights	0.00
9	Ohio State Buckeyes	0.00
10	Washington State Cougars	0.00
11	West Virginia Mountaineers	-0.66
12	Fresno State Bulldogs	0.46
13	Michigan State Spartans	2.00
14	UAB Blazers	4.19
15	Utah State Aggies	0.00
16	Syracuse Orange	0.00
17	Kentucky Wildcats	-0.49
18	Cincinnati Bearcats	0.49
19	Texas Longhorns	0.00
20	Boise State Broncos	4.67
21	Buffalo Bulls	1.09
22	Purdue Boilermakers	2.75
23	NC State Wolfpack	0.00
24	Army West Point	0.00
25	Penn State Nittany Lions	-0.31

Omissions:

Team	Unusualness
Boston College Eagles	1.38
Mississippi State Bulldogs	0.77
Florida Gators	0.89
Washington Huskies	0.76
Iowa State Cyclones	0.25

Total Score: 21.45

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Charlemagne42 Ballot for 2018 Week 11

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