Ballot Type: Hybrid
Submitted: Oct. 8, 2018, 4:54 p.m.
Overall Rationale: There may be some drastic shuffle in my poll this week. In addition to the upsets, I've revised my system I've been using to get the top ~50 teams I consider each week to better correlate my intention with ranking. As a result, I now consider my poll hybrid. The formula considers mostly record, opponents' sum record, and wins against the Top Third of the league, Top 15, and a little bit of MoV. It's also designed to forgive your first loss some and OT losses; also punishes FCS games and OT wins slightly. The one thing it can't do is observe head-to-head but that's why I'm here.
Rank | Team | Reason |
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1 |
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Okay, so why Clemson? Clemson's opponents actually boast a great win % outside of Clemson games better than most in the top 10 (the top teams overall are LSU, Army, and Stanford). Their MoV is also well above the average. While Alabama is crushing their opponents as well, their opponents are notably weaker and as a result, have lost their place as #1 with the change in polling practice for myself. |
2 |
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3 |
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4 |
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5 |
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6 |
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Okay, big controversy; why ahead of Florida? Well, despite the head-to-head factor, the displacement in rankings is more substantial. LSU's overall opponents have a stronger win percentage, larger MoV, and most other factors are a push (opponents in top 25, top 44, record) other than the head-to-head. Overall, I had to give LSU the edge. |
7 |
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Alright, now Gator fans are probably think "what the fuck asshole." But, the gap between UK to UF is far closer than UF to LSU (about 2.5 times closer actually). So, the MoV, and opponents' record are far narrower and the top 25/44 games is an advantage of 1 to Kentucky. With the head-to-head, this is enough for me to push UK over Florida. |
8 |
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9 |
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10 |
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11 |
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Would probably be ninth, but that OT to Appalachian State hurts just enough to slip behind Texas and Michigan. |
12 |
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Would OU be ahead of Texas if not for the OT against Army? Nah, Texas leads overall still. |
13 |
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14 |
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Thus begins the tier of unproven, but undefeated teams. Pity WVU and NC State couldn't have played because one of them would 5th or 6th place right about now. |
15 |
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16 |
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17 |
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Kicking ass and taking names... of teams that are not impressive. But they play Memphis this week, so pending a win, will throw them upwards at least over USF. |
18 |
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Cincinnati has the most underwhelming opponents out of this group of five here, along with a less than impressive MoV to match. |
19 |
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20 |
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21 |
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22 |
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23 |
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24 |
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25 |
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The most underwhelming team to still be undefeated, and it's not even close. |
Teams Ranked:
Rank | Team | Unusualness |
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1 |
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1.74 |
2 |
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0.42 |
3 |
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-0.89 |
4 |
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-0.08 |
5 |
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-0.73 |
6 |
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1.38 |
7 |
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1.70 |
8 |
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0.98 |
9 |
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0.14 |
10 |
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0.00 |
11 |
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0.00 |
12 |
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0.00 |
13 |
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0.27 |
14 |
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0.02 |
15 |
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-1.77 |
16 |
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0.77 |
17 |
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-0.59 |
18 |
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0.15 |
19 |
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1.77 |
20 |
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-1.79 |
21 |
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3.88 |
22 |
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-0.63 |
23 |
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-0.27 |
24 |
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0.00 |
25 |
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-0.71 |
Omissions:
Team | Unusualness |
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0.33 |
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0.38 |
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0.09 |
Total Score: 21.47