Ballot Type: Hybrid
Submitted: Oct. 7, 2018, 6:32 p.m.
Overall Rationale: See my previous ballots for a broad description of my methods. Parameters this week: 10% maximum change from the model's score, 10 teams with unchanged scores (worse), median score change 39 (worse), 2 teams left off (improvement). I may continue with hybrid mode next week, or may directly submit the computer's rankings. It depends on how the model results compare with reality. ________________________________________ Biggest bonus this week goes to Alabama with +144, biggest penalty to LSU again with -148. Teams left off: Hawai'i (938, #23), Mississippi State (873, #25). Median score change including these teams: 39 points (worse). ________________________________________ Why is my team missing? We're undefeated! Because the model considers the Buffs to have the weakest schedule in FBS. I could have made a concerted effort to get Colorado in (barely), but that would have meant dropping several better teams out, and leaving several worse teams in.
Rank | Team | Reason |
---|---|---|
1 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 1439, +144, 1583; The model saw Bama beat Arkansas and yawned. This may be the last week I can boost Bama up to #1, which means they'll have to start actually beating good teams to keep their spot. |
2 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 1621, -39, 1582; Still plenty to worry about if you're a fan of the Irish. Will Book play like he did in the first half or the second? Will NOTs continue to bail out the offense when it stalls, or will that well run dry? Can the offense actually put together an unassisted comeback, should they get behind? |
3 | Clemson Tigers | 1637, -56, 1581 |
4 | Ohio State Buckeyes | 1400, +78, 1478 |
5 | Georgia Bulldogs | 1477 |
6 | Florida Gators | 1272, +64, 1336; Was LSU a good win or a lucky one? Was Kentucky a good loss or a horrible one? What even is the SEC East this season? |
7 | LSU Tigers | 1483, -148, 1335; One thing the model's picked up on that I wholeheartedly agree with at this point is that there seems to be a massive gap between #5 and #6.After that, everyone pretty much falls out in a cluster. |
8 | Kentucky Wildcats | 1271; Kentucky lost but no one really stepped up to fill the void. Keep losing and they'll drop; and if the teams they've beaten (ahem Florida, Mississippi State) would go ahead and lose instead of winning major matchups, they'll drop even further. |
9 | NC State Wolfpack | 1114, +12, 1126; Still undefeated, but the cancelled WVU game leaves "what if"s and the schedule moving forward looks tricky. |
10 | Texas Longhorns | 1125 |
11 | Oklahoma Sooners | 1020 |
12 | West Virginia Mountaineers | 970, +44, 1014; Now that NC State is ahead of them, they probably wish even more that they could have settled the questions everyone now has on the field. |
13 | Michigan Wolverines | 1013 |
14 | Washington Huskies | 909, +87, 996; The model is extremely unimpressed with the Pac-12. Washington is no exception. |
15 | UCF Knights | 930, +65, 995; UCF makes its first appearance this season in my rankings. They have a surprisingly tough schedule ahead of them, including undefeated Cincy and USF. If they win out, expect them top 10 for sure, possibly top 5. If they lose, well, it was inevitable. |
16 | Cincinnati Bearcats | 1104, -110, 994 |
17 | Texas A&M Aggies | 963, +26, 989; Are the Aggies good? Is Kentucky? Is Clemson? The SEC is a Gordian knot right now and I'm gonna need someone to step up and slice through it. |
18 | USF Bulls | 988; With three ranked teams, the AAC is outdoing the Pac-12 in my model's view. However, the atrocious West drags down the entire conference so far that they aren't *quite* better top-to-bottom than the Pac-12. |
19 | Stanford Cardinal | 984; Pac-12, why do you do this to yourself? You gave your one-loss-and-it-was-to-an-apparently-amazing-ND team a second loss, *and* almost let your one-loss-to-an-SEC-team lose to winless UCLA. Your only undefeated team has the weakest schedule in FBS and you aren't doing anything to help their case. Get it together or we're replacing you with the AAC. |
20 | Army West Point | 1088, -109, 979; Another week, another slew of questions about Army being so high. Look, the loss to Oklahoma looks worse, but the wins over Hawai'i and Buffalo keep looking better and better and better. At least to the model, which only sees that Hawai'i is on a winning streak, not that they almost lost to SJSU and Wyoming in back-to-back weeks. |
21 | Miami Hurricanes | 958; At this point I don't even know what to do with Miami. Send them to the SEC, I guess, because they're inscrutable. |
22 | Auburn Tigers | 947 |
23 | Penn State Nittany Lions | 848, +47, 895; They're a game back after their bye and the model is not impressed with their wins so far. |
24 | Duke Blue Devils | 894 |
25 | Wisconsin Badgers | 769, +77, 846; Look, *someone* had to make the cut in this farce of a week of football. Wisconsin looked bad putting Nebraska away, but they do still only have one loss. Now for the next five out: Syracuse (841), USC (the Trojans, not the Gamecocks) (824), USC (the Gamecocks, not the Trojans) (799), Maryland (795), Colorado (793) |
Teams Ranked:
Rank | Team | Unusualness |
---|---|---|
1 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 0.00 |
2 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 0.42 |
3 | Clemson Tigers | 0.22 |
4 | Ohio State Buckeyes | -0.08 |
5 | Georgia Bulldogs | -0.73 |
6 | Florida Gators | 1.58 |
7 | LSU Tigers | 1.09 |
8 | Kentucky Wildcats | 1.46 |
9 | NC State Wolfpack | 1.07 |
10 | Texas Longhorns | 0.00 |
11 | Oklahoma Sooners | 0.00 |
12 | West Virginia Mountaineers | -0.78 |
13 | Michigan Wolverines | 0.00 |
14 | Washington Huskies | -0.25 |
15 | UCF Knights | -0.14 |
16 | Cincinnati Bearcats | 0.61 |
17 | Texas A&M Aggies | 0.55 |
18 | USF Bulls | 0.27 |
19 | Stanford Cardinal | 2.54 |
20 | Army West Point | 5.12 |
21 | Miami Hurricanes | -0.29 |
22 | Auburn Tigers | 0.00 |
23 | Penn State Nittany Lions | -3.03 |
24 | Duke Blue Devils | 0.88 |
25 | Wisconsin Badgers | -1.37 |
Omissions:
Team | Unusualness |
---|---|
Colorado Buffaloes | 0.93 |
Oregon Ducks | 1.08 |
Mississippi State Bulldogs | 0.09 |
Total Score: 24.56