Back to poll results >>

Charlemagne42 Ballot for 2018 Week 7

Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Oct. 7, 2018, 6:32 p.m.

Overall Rationale: See my previous ballots for a broad description of my methods. Parameters this week: 10% maximum change from the model's score, 10 teams with unchanged scores (worse), median score change 39 (worse), 2 teams left off (improvement). I may continue with hybrid mode next week, or may directly submit the computer's rankings. It depends on how the model results compare with reality. ________________________________________ Biggest bonus this week goes to Alabama with +144, biggest penalty to LSU again with -148. Teams left off: Hawai'i (938, #23), Mississippi State (873, #25). Median score change including these teams: 39 points (worse). ________________________________________ Why is my team missing? We're undefeated! Because the model considers the Buffs to have the weakest schedule in FBS. I could have made a concerted effort to get Colorado in (barely), but that would have meant dropping several better teams out, and leaving several worse teams in.

Rank Team Reason
1 Alabama Crimson Tide 1439, +144, 1583; The model saw Bama beat Arkansas and yawned. This may be the last week I can boost Bama up to #1, which means they'll have to start actually beating good teams to keep their spot.
2 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 1621, -39, 1582; Still plenty to worry about if you're a fan of the Irish. Will Book play like he did in the first half or the second? Will NOTs continue to bail out the offense when it stalls, or will that well run dry? Can the offense actually put together an unassisted comeback, should they get behind?
3 Clemson Tigers 1637, -56, 1581
4 Ohio State Buckeyes 1400, +78, 1478
5 Georgia Bulldogs 1477
6 Florida Gators 1272, +64, 1336; Was LSU a good win or a lucky one? Was Kentucky a good loss or a horrible one? What even is the SEC East this season?
7 LSU Tigers 1483, -148, 1335; One thing the model's picked up on that I wholeheartedly agree with at this point is that there seems to be a massive gap between #5 and #6.After that, everyone pretty much falls out in a cluster.
8 Kentucky Wildcats 1271; Kentucky lost but no one really stepped up to fill the void. Keep losing and they'll drop; and if the teams they've beaten (ahem Florida, Mississippi State) would go ahead and lose instead of winning major matchups, they'll drop even further.
9 NC State Wolfpack 1114, +12, 1126; Still undefeated, but the cancelled WVU game leaves "what if"s and the schedule moving forward looks tricky.
10 Texas Longhorns 1125
11 Oklahoma Sooners 1020
12 West Virginia Mountaineers 970, +44, 1014; Now that NC State is ahead of them, they probably wish even more that they could have settled the questions everyone now has on the field.
13 Michigan Wolverines 1013
14 Washington Huskies 909, +87, 996; The model is extremely unimpressed with the Pac-12. Washington is no exception.
15 UCF Knights 930, +65, 995; UCF makes its first appearance this season in my rankings. They have a surprisingly tough schedule ahead of them, including undefeated Cincy and USF. If they win out, expect them top 10 for sure, possibly top 5. If they lose, well, it was inevitable.
16 Cincinnati Bearcats 1104, -110, 994
17 Texas A&M Aggies 963, +26, 989; Are the Aggies good? Is Kentucky? Is Clemson? The SEC is a Gordian knot right now and I'm gonna need someone to step up and slice through it.
18 USF Bulls 988; With three ranked teams, the AAC is outdoing the Pac-12 in my model's view. However, the atrocious West drags down the entire conference so far that they aren't *quite* better top-to-bottom than the Pac-12.
19 Stanford Cardinal 984; Pac-12, why do you do this to yourself? You gave your one-loss-and-it-was-to-an-apparently-amazing-ND team a second loss, *and* almost let your one-loss-to-an-SEC-team lose to winless UCLA. Your only undefeated team has the weakest schedule in FBS and you aren't doing anything to help their case. Get it together or we're replacing you with the AAC.
20 Army West Point 1088, -109, 979; Another week, another slew of questions about Army being so high. Look, the loss to Oklahoma looks worse, but the wins over Hawai'i and Buffalo keep looking better and better and better. At least to the model, which only sees that Hawai'i is on a winning streak, not that they almost lost to SJSU and Wyoming in back-to-back weeks.
21 Miami Hurricanes 958; At this point I don't even know what to do with Miami. Send them to the SEC, I guess, because they're inscrutable.
22 Auburn Tigers 947
23 Penn State Nittany Lions 848, +47, 895; They're a game back after their bye and the model is not impressed with their wins so far.
24 Duke Blue Devils 894
25 Wisconsin Badgers 769, +77, 846; Look, *someone* had to make the cut in this farce of a week of football. Wisconsin looked bad putting Nebraska away, but they do still only have one loss. Now for the next five out: Syracuse (841), USC (the Trojans, not the Gamecocks) (824), USC (the Gamecocks, not the Trojans) (799), Maryland (795), Colorado (793)

Back to poll results >>