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boonamobile Ballot for 2018 Week 7

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Oct. 9, 2018, 7:48 a.m.

Overall Rationale: * **Now that we have several games' worth of data to work with for each team, I made a 'mid-season' evaluation of my algorithm and adjusted a few things to create better balance between certain factors.** One of the biggest fundamental changes is that it's now possible for teams to earn small positive overall scores for playing well in a loss against a good team (e.g., Penn State vs Ohio State), and vice versa, they can earn small negative overall scores for playing poorly in a win against a bad opponent (e.g., Colorado vs Nebraska). This is my second year using a backward-looking computer poll that evaluates every team's ENTIRE resume from scratch each week, meaning the value of every win and loss fluctuates throughout the season as we learn more about each team and put each game into the broader context of both teams' seasons. Rankings depend on your record, each of your opponents' records throughout the season (a rough SoS metric), and each of your opponents' opponents' records (a 'second order' SoS metric), with weight given to relative competition level (FCS, G5, P5). **NEW THIS YEAR:** The algorithm now accounts for relative margin of victory/defeat and 'game control' (% of points scored by each team), as well as head-to-head outcomes. **Primary shortcomings:** Common opponents are not factored in, and all FCS teams are treated as equal.

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