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GenialGiant Ballot for 2018 Week 6

Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Oct. 2, 2018, 12:07 a.m.

Overall Rationale: This week's the week! I've finally gotten my updated model ready and am introducing it for the first time. This model is a relatively simple one that uses scores to calculate a "grade" for each team in each game. These grades are then used to calculate a team's overall score. Let us consider a team, A, playing another team, B. Team A's grade from playing team B is G_AB = .5 + (S_AB - S_BA)/(2 * (S_AB + S_BA + 1)), where S_AB and S_BA are a team's score against that opponent. This means each team receives a grade between 0 and 1 for each FBS game they play. The system is similar for FCS teams except I drop the .5 component (giving grades the range -.5 to .5). FCS teams to not earn grades. A team's overall grade uses these individual grades as a starting point, then adds the grades of each of their opponents (less their opponents' grades against them) times the grade against that opponent. I then repeat this process twice more, for grades of grades, and grades of grades of grades. Using this output as a starting point, I allow myself to move teams within 15 positions of their initial ranking. In later weeks, I will be reducing this tolerance. Computer model ranks are in parentheses. First N Out - Maryland (20) and Texas A&M (25). Notable Absences - NC State (52), Michigan State (53), Oregon (54), Colorado (74), UCF (84)

Rank Team Reason
1 Alabama Crimson Tide Alabama continues to look unstoppable and is the clear #1 team in the country. (4)
2 Ohio State Buckeyes While Alabama may be the best team in the country, Ohio State has the best win, with a nail-biting finish against Penn State. (2)
3 Georgia Bulldogs Georgia hasn't actually played a ton of good teams, which accounts for their dip here (and their poor computer ranking), though they're still clearly a very good team. (16)
4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish Notre Dame pounded on rival Stanford and sees a big jump as a result; I'm eternally skeptical about Notre Dame, but they actually look very good. (1)
5 LSU Tigers LSU would be getting a lot more attention if they weren't in the same division as this ridiculously-good Alabama team, but they're still in my top five. (10)
6 Oklahoma Sooners Oklahoma righted the ship after a close call last weekend. (8)
7 Clemson Tigers What a tumble for Clemson, who almost fell to Syracuse for the second straight season. (15)
8 Penn State Nittany Lions A heart-breaking finish against Ohio State and the near-certainty of missing the B1G championship game certainly hurt, but, for the most part, Penn State played well against a team that looks to be playoff-bound. (5)
9 Washington Huskies Washington utterly dominated BYU and cements their place in the top 10. (13)
10 Kentucky Wildcats This week, it's Kentucky that rounds out my top 10, following an incredible 5-0 start to the season. (7)
11 Auburn Tigers Auburn continues to have their struggles, but they also keep winning games, which is important. (14)
12 Miami Hurricanes Miami's quarterback switch seems to be paying dividends and their defense has looked downright terrifying in recent weeks. (24)
13 Wisconsin Badgers Wisconsin was off this weekend, which hurts their computer ranking some, but they're a good team and will look to show it as they move further into conference play. (28)
14 Michigan Wolverines I've been low on Michigan all season, but that had at least something to do with my assessment of Notre Dame, so it's only fair I move Michigan up as well. (3)
15 Texas Longhorns It'll be much easier to tell if Texas is "back" after this weekend, but they're certainly doing their best to convince people. (6)
16 Stanford Cardinal A brutal loss to rival Notre Dame moves Stanford down a few positions, but not completely out of the picture. (12)
17 Florida Gators Florida has looked pretty good overall this season, and their loss to Kentucky looks much less bad than it did. (18)
18 Duke Blue Devils Duke had a pretty rough showing against Virginia Tech, but, overall, they still look like a good team and so remain pretty high in my rankings. (19)
19 Oklahoma State Cowboys Oklahoma State rebounded nicely after their brutal loss to Texas Tech and once more finds themselves in the top 25. (26)
20 Army West Point Playing Oklahoma close was a good look for this team, as was knocking off both Hawai'i and Buffalo. (34)
21 Syracuse Orange Syracuse played Clemson very close, and the main thing holding them back seems to be the abysmal strength of their opponents not named Clemson. (36)
22 Indiana Hoosiers It looks like Indiana's computer rank is due largely to them whooping Ball State a couple weeks back, but they find themselves ranked nonetheless. (9)
23 Cincinnati Bearcats Cincinnati is undefeated and looks decent so far this season. (38)
24 Appalachian State Mountaineers My model thinks App State is pretty decent, and so do I, so they get the nod here. (39)
25 West Virginia Mountaineers I was all set to rank West Virginia in the top 10 this week, but my model punishes them pretty severely for missing a game (which I might try to fix in future iterations) along with their very weak schedule, making this as high as I can rank them. (40)

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