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Charlemagne42 Ballot for 2018 Week 6

Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Sept. 30, 2018, 3:40 p.m.

Overall Rationale: See my previous ballots for a broad description of my methods. Parameters this week: 20% maximum change from the model's score, 12 teams with unchanged scores (improvement), median score change 2 (improvement), 3 teams left off (no change). ________________________________________ Biggest bonus this week goes to Georgia with +106, biggest penalty to LSU with -252. Teams left off: Michigan State (785, #10), Indiana (768, #10), Florida (641, #25). Median score change including these teams: 34 points (improvement). ________________________________________ Why is my team missing? We're undefeated! If you're a Colorado fan, it's because the model considers your team to have the weakest schedule in FBS. Even with the maximum bonus for the Buffs and the maximum penalty for every team above them, it's impossible to get them to 25. If you're a UCF or USF fan, I could have pulled some mathematical shenanigans to get your team in (barely), but doing so would have meant dropping several better teams out, and leaving several worse teams in.

Rank Team Reason
1 Alabama Crimson Tide 960, +103, 1063; The model saw right through the Tide's scheduling of ULM in the fifth week of football for what it was: a convenient pre-bye-week bye week. After three more games* they'll have their actual bye week, then two more games, then their post-bye-week bye week. *If you count Arkansas and then two East teams that aren't Georgia as games and not further bye weeks.
2 Ohio State Buckeyes 1062
3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 1277, -216, 1061; Let's not get carried away. Stanford was a very good win, and ND's other major victory continued winning this week, but let's temper our enthusiasm and remind ourselves of reality: ND is not better than Bama.
4 LSU Tigers 1312, -252, 1060; Look, I'm as excited as the model is to watch LSU face off against the rest of the SEC. But again. Reality. Let's not depart too far from it.
5 Georgia Bulldogs 946, +106, 1052
6 Clemson Tigers 1051
7 Oklahoma Sooners 845, +101, 946
8 Kentucky Wildcats 945
9 Stanford Cardinal 862; Good model. A loss to a top-3 team shouldn't necessarily mean a 12-spot drop. Especially one at their place, several hours before you're accustomed to playing.
10 West Virginia Mountaineers 678, +75, 753
11 Washington Huskies 647, +105, 752; Since the Auburn loss week 1, the Huskies have rebounded very nicely.
12 Penn State Nittany Lions 751
13 Auburn Tigers 747
14 Syracuse Orange 679, +66, 745; The model treats the loss to Clemson like any other loss. But this loss was by 3 points, at Death Valley, and came down to the final seconds. The Orange are otherwise undefeated.
15 Army West Point 903, -159, 744; This model is absolutely in love with Army right now because of how their schedule is doing. If Duke had beaten VT it would have put Army even higher. Look, until Hawai'i loses another game, Army will continue to be very overrated. Beating previously-undefeated Buffalo this week didn't help either, and neither did the OT loss to undefeated Oklahoma. But for now, Army will persist as a fixture in my rankings, at 3-2 with a conventionally unimpressive resume. If I dropped them any further I'd be breaking my own rules, which would make them worthless.
16 Michigan Wolverines 715
17 Maryland Terrapins 782, -68, 714; Why Maryland? Because, like Army, I couldn't drop them out because their score was too high. The Texas win is still about a third of their score, and another fifth or so is the model's B1G East circlejerk.
18 Texas Longhorns 704
19 USC Trojans 673; Funny how the scores work out sometimes.
20 Miami Hurricanes 566, +102, 668; This is about where it becomes difficult to find teams that deserve to be ranked. Yes, I'm aware I have teams above Miami that probably shouldn't be ranked. Yes, I know you think I have your team too low. Too bad, the model didn't give your team a score as high as you wanted because they didn't beat good teams.
21 NC State Wolfpack 754, -87, 667; Why NC State? Because they're currently undefeated, and Marshall and UVA are doing okay so far. Oh, and they have Clemson next, then Syracuse. Now's as good a time as any to bring up a small quirk in my model. When a game is cancelled, the participating teams lose all the score associated with that game. For example, UCF-UNC is worth zero for both teams right now. When a game is *postponed* instead, like WVU-NCSU, the teams both retain the score associated with that game. Currently, NCSU is getting a noticeable boost from having WVU on their schedule, but without the consequences of a loss or benefits of a win.
22 Texas Tech Red Raiders 666; bah gawd that's Nick Saban's music
23 Virginia Tech Hokies 656
24 Cincinnati Bearcats 550, +91, 641; If you're a UCF or USF fan wondering why the Bearcats are in but not the Bulls or the Knights: Cincy got in because they've had 5 games already. Your chance will come on their bye week, which is the week after next.
25 Duke Blue Devils 640

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