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WhiteBaseCoat Ballot for 2017 Week 6

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Oct. 2, 2017, 10:52 p.m.

Overall Rationale: So... hmm. Overall I'm pretty happy with how my PLRCOAT computer ranking is going. It's stabilizing pretty much exactly like I hoped it would... except, of course, San Diego State is #1. So. Hmm. See, this stat is derived from the formula (scores of FBS wins)/2 + (# of FBS wins). It's constantly updating - it's all in a big Excel sheet where I plug results in as they happen - so it doesn't take into account when a win came in a season. You'll also notice that it takes into account nothing but FBS wins - not losses, not rosters, not coaches, not points, just wins. It's 100% based on who you have beaten, and it's starting to approximate what a more normal poll might look like - it's got mostly the same teams (ignoring the suspicious number of SEC representatives) as I might rank, now it's just a matter of them sorting into a more normal. Who knows, maybe they won't - I want this poll to be unique and to look at these rankings from a fresh perspective. Just... maybe not quite this fresh.

Rank Team Reason
1 San Diego State Aztecs PLRCOAT: 15.487. Yeah. So. Yeah. Well. This is a thing. Basically, SDSU is benefiting from going undefeated through a very front-loaded OOC schedule. They've got wins over 7.539 Arizona State (who, yes, only has two wins, but one is 7.828 Oregon and the other is 3.25 NMSU), 11.982 Stanford (ranked #8, explored in-depth below), 3.453 NIU, and 0-point Air Force. It's really that Stanford win that's giving them the punch to get up here, and when you throw in two other solid wins that'll boost you up quite a bit. If they can pull off that Boise State game in a couple of weeks then I have to imagine that they'll hang around for the long haul, but from there on out they're going to be dealing with a pretty weak slate that will likely send them into freefall, win or lose.
2 Clemson Tigers PLRCOAT: 15.324. Ah. Yes. This makes sense to my brain. And hey, they're at the same spot as they are in the AP Poll. I don't think this needs a ton of explaining - first of all, they're one of three teams with 5 FBS wins right now, and their wins are for the most part all great if unspectacular: 5.422 Auburn, 4.227 Boston College, 5.25 Virginia Tech, and 5.75 Louisville (also Kent State. They have 0 points. Sorry, Golden Flashes). That is a fantastic early season resume that is going to continue to improve, and I imagine they won't be stumbling out of the top 5 anytime soon (or even top 3, for that matter).
3 USC Trojans PLRCOAT: 14.679. USC over WSU? This won't be controversial at all. Look, I set up the formula in the fashion I did for a reason - I want choices like this to happen (though note that it is a razor-thin margin). USC's 4 FBS wins are super solid - 3.375 WMU, 11.982 Stanford (again, ranked #8 and explored below), 2.75 Texas, and 3.25 Cal. Like San Diego State, that Stanford win is really helping them out, and everything else is a great foundation to round out a solid resume. Compare this to WSU: Their win over USC is currently rated as the best of the season by the PLRCOAT, and Boise State ranks in with a flashy 6.5, but Nevada and Oregon State both have 0 points. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out over the course of the season - USC plays Oregon State while Washington State plays Oregon this week, so if they both take care of business the Cougars will certainly have the upper hand for the time being.
4 Washington State Cougars PLRCOAT: 14.589. See above.
5 Georgia Bulldogs PLROCAT: 14.518. Another team that is ranked the same in the AP poll, which makes me feel a little better. App State only has 1 point at the moment, but 11.316 Notre Dame (ranked #13, see below), 4.844 Mississippi State, and 3.875 Tennessee is a good suite of wins, especially that ND victory.
6 Michigan Wolverines PLRCOAT: 12.791. Michigan was #1 last week, but a BYE week has slowed them up a little bit. They've got 4 wins, which is great, but the only one that's really doing them favors is 11.832 Florida (#9 below).
7 Penn State Nittany Lions PLRCOAT: 12.531. Penn State is the 2nd team on this list with 5 FBS wins; problem is, only two are >2 points, and neither is extremely impressive -  4.625 Indiana and 6.438 Iowa. I'll be curious to see how they stick around as the season rolls on.
8 Stanford Cardinal PLRCOAT: 11.982. Here starts a second pocket of weirdness that the rankings never really recover from, where teams #8-10 are all in very very strange places. Stanford only has 3 wins - they're the highest ranked team in that category - but two of those are 9.425 UCLA (ranked #16 below) and 7.539 Arizona State. That's a really excellent pair of wins, but the Cardinal doesn't have much else to back them up (Rice has 1 point - hang in there, Owls). They could feasibly hang around in the top 10, but they're gonna have to keep winning.
9 Florida Gators PLRCOAT: 11.832. Believe me, I don't like this any more than you do. Basically, Florida is feasting off a trio of... ahem... *solid* SEC East wins: 3.875 Tennessee, 9.413 Kentucky (ranked #17 below), and 4.375 Vanderbilt. I really can't get a read on this situation. I feel like I'm a detective who's one step behind the serial killer that is the SEC East - why is Florida ranked? Well, they killed Kentucky... but then why is Kentucky ranked?
10 Alabama Crimson Tide PLRCOAT: 11.591. Alabama is the third and final team with 5 FBS wins. They are clearly an excellent team. But I cannot emphasize enough how much their early season schedule has failed them so far. The scores of those 5 teams right now: 4.307, 1, 2.5, 4.375, 1. There's not a really good win to be had there. There are a few teams on their schedule that should boost them up, maybe even into the top 5, but... jeez. I just don't know how they're gonna rate out by seasons' end, even though I'm sure they'll have a scoring margin of 1000-50 or whatever.
11 TCU Horned Frogs PLRCOAT: 11.536. TCU is mostly benefiting from 9.509 Oklahoma State (ranked #15 below), but 4.9375 SMU isn't a bad win, and Arkansas has 2.625 points, which is meh. Not a bad trio at this point in the season, all things considered.
12 UCF Knights PLRCOAT: 11.411. USF was around this range last time, but they've fallen on hard times and been replaced by their Floridian neighbor, who has wins over 6.359 Maryland and 7.963 Memphis (ranked #24 below), topped off by 2.5 FIU. Between SMU and Navy they probably have a shot at staying alive in these rankings, though almost certainly not at this level.
13 Notre Dame Fighting Irish PLRCOAT: 11.316. Temple and Miami (OH) are looking a little rough right now, but 4.227 Boston College and 7.906 Michigan State make up for them.
14 Oklahoma Sooners PLRCOAT: 10.078. Bye weeks can be a little punishing in the PLRCOAT rankings, especially when your signature victory (9.359 Ohio State) plays 0-point Rutgers. I expect they'll bounce back as they enter conference play against opponents that aren't Baylor.
15 Oklahoma State Cowboys PLRCOAT: 9.51. Yep, sitting right underneath the Sooners are the Cowboys. Their first three FBS wins are sort of trash, so they would really be in a bind if it wasn't for a hard-fought win over 8.02 Texas Tech (#22 below). Instead, they're sitting exactly where the AP Poll has them.
16 UCLA Bruins PLRCOAT: 9.425. Why is UCLA ranked? Well, they killed Texas A&M.
17 Kentucky Wildcats PLRCOAT: 9.413. Kentucky refuses to die in these rankings. Why are they ranked? Well, they killed South Carolina.
18 Ohio State Buckeyes PLRCOAT: 9.359. Ohio State has... not good, necessarily, but fine wins - 4.625 Indiana, 3.593 Army, and 2.5 UNLV. Unfortunately, they played Rutgers this week, who does not have any FBS wins, so they might as well have been on a bye. I'm sure they'll rise back up over time.
19 Texas A&M Aggies PLRCOAT: 8.601. Why is A&M ranked? Well, they killed South Carolina.
20 South Carolina Gamecocks PLRCOAT: 8.577. Why is South Carolina ranked? Well, they killed... NC State? Gasp! It was the ACC all along!
21 NC State Wolfpack PLRCOAT: 8.216. Ah, so you're the little wolfpack that started this war of one-hit wonders. NC State has a solid and balanced resume for a school with 3 FBS wins - 4.307 Florida State, 4.625 Marshall, and 1.5 Syracuse. Big wins are a huge factor in these rankings, but you need several to be sustainable, and I have a feeling that some, if not all, of these more mediocre SEC teams will find themselves tumbling out of the rankings, while NC State will continue to climb if they keep winning.
22 Texas Tech Red Raiders PLRCOAT: 8.02. Tech has hurtled towards the abyss because of their loss to Oklahoma State, dropping about 10 spots from the previous rankings. 7.539 Arizona State and 4.5 Houston played the role of safety net, but I think the Red Raiders may be slipping out of the rankings next week after they play 0-point Kansas.
23 Memphis Tigers PLRCOAT: 7.963. Why is Memphis ranked? Well, they killed UCLA. (for the record, they're so much lower than that chain of teams above because they only have 2 wins, and one is 2.5 Louisiana Monroe. Considering they play 0-point UConn next week, I can't imagine they'll be here much longer).
24 Navy Midshipmen PLRCOAT: 7.961. Navy's wins: 2.375, 2.797, 1.75, 1. They're consistent, I'll give them that.
25 Michigan State Spartans PLRCOAT: 7.906. Bowling Green doesn't have any points, but 3.375 WMU and 6.438 Iowa are good wins around this range of the rankings.

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