DataDrivenPirate Ballot for 2025 Final
Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Jan. 22, 2026, 10:42 a.m.
Overall Rationale: Computer model that minimizes the squared error difference between projected spread and actual spread, adjusted for home field advantage (~2.5pts) and with a decay to put more weight in recent games and less weight in games earlier in the season. Ratings are in parentheses in description for select teams.
| Rank | Team | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
(30) Biggest difference between #1 and #2 since I started doing this model 5 years ago |
| 2 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
(24.84) close losses to top teams |
| 3 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
(24.61) I'm going to be honest I don't have things set up to appropriately handle a top team playing so many fewer games than all the other top teams |
| 4 |
Texas Tech Red Raiders
|
(24.09) |
| 5 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
(23.11) Ultimately their two losses still exist and hold them back in a total rating system like this |
| 6 |
Oregon Ducks
|
(22.97) Over the past 4 years Dan Lanning is 1-4 against the eventual national champion, 4-3 against rivals, and 44-0 against everyone else. Maybe next year! |
| 7 |
Utah Utes
|
(20.88) |
| 8 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
(19.33) Lowest finish for Georgia over the past four years |
| 9 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
(19) 5 pt loss to Indiana is seen as a 4 point over-performance, and a 2 pt loss to Oregon is seen as a 2 point over-performance, so even though they're 8-4 they end up a top 10 team. |
| 10 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
(18.81) |
| 11 |
USC Trojans
|
|
| 12 |
Vanderbilt Commodores
|
|
| 13 |
Washington Huskies
|
|
| 14 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
|
| 15 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
(16.90) Lowest Alabama finish since I've been doing this |
| 16 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
|
| 17 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
(16.06) If 2021 Nebraska was the best 3-9 team ever, 2025 PSU is the best 6-7 team ever. 3 point loss to Indiana is doing a lot of heavy lifting, that alone is an 11 point over-performance. |
| 18 |
SMU Mustangs
|
|
| 19 |
Texas Longhorns
|
(15.97) Surely next year is their year |
| 20 |
BYU Cougars
|
(15.79) |
| 21 |
USF Bulls
|
|
| 22 |
Florida State Seminoles
|
(15.04) Huge win over Alabama doesn't get erased just because it was the first game of the season, and sort of messes the rest of the season up for them. Four 1 possession losses (two to teams ranked ahead of them), Four 21+ point wins. I just don't have a good way to account for teams that clearly quit on the season. |
| 23 |
Arizona Wildcats
|
|
| 24 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
|
| 25 |
Virginia Cavaliers
|
(14.11) |
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
0.00 |
| 2 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
1.29 |
| 3 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
1.62 |
| 4 |
Texas Tech Red Raiders
|
1.27 |
| 5 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
-1.89 |
| 6 |
Oregon Ducks
|
-0.74 |
| 7 |
Utah Utes
|
1.68 |
| 8 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
-1.33 |
| 9 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
1.99 |
| 10 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
-3.64 |
| 11 |
USC Trojans
|
2.29 |
| 12 |
Vanderbilt Commodores
|
0.82 |
| 13 |
Washington Huskies
|
6.12 |
| 14 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
-1.69 |
| 15 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
-0.66 |
| 16 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
-0.49 |
| 17 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
8.14 |
| 18 |
SMU Mustangs
|
4.76 |
| 19 |
Texas Longhorns
|
-1.22 |
| 20 |
BYU Cougars
|
-2.95 |
| 21 |
USF Bulls
|
4.00 |
| 22 |
Florida State Seminoles
|
3.23 |
| 23 |
Arizona Wildcats
|
1.24 |
| 24 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
0.00 |
| 25 |
Virginia Cavaliers
|
-1.58 |
Omissions:
| Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|
James Madison Dukes
|
1.20 |
Tulane Green Wave
|
1.18 |
North Texas Mean Green
|
0.42 |
Houston Cougars
|
0.64 |
Navy Midshipmen
|
0.41 |
TCU Horned Frogs
|
0.03 |
Total Score: 58.51