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DataDrivenPirate Ballot for 2025 Week 16 & Bowls

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Dec. 8, 2025, 2:37 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Computer model that minimizes the squared error difference between projected spread and actual spread, adjusted for home field advantage (~2.5pts) and with a decay to put more weight in recent games and less weight in games earlier in the season. Ratings are in parentheses in description for select teams.

Rank Team Reason
1 Indiana Hoosiers
2 Texas Tech Red Raiders
3 Ohio State Buckeyes Defense wins championships but defense is not looked upon kindly by the model
4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish They lost to good teams by a small amount and beat bad teams by a big amount. Couldn't draw it up better to have a big disagreement between the model and the voters
5 Oregon Ducks
6 Miami Hurricanes
7 Utah Utes Very underrated team according to the model
8 Georgia Bulldogs Big jump, but still only 1/13th of the full data
9 Vanderbilt Commodores
10 Texas A&M Aggies
11 USC Trojans
12 Iowa Hawkeyes
13 Alabama Crimson Tide Don't get blown out by FSU if you want to be a top 10 team
14 Ole Miss Rebels
15 Oklahoma Sooners
16 USF Bulls
17 Washington Huskies
18 BYU Cougars Solid wins but blowout losses
19 Arizona Wildcats
20 Penn State Nittany Lions Loss against Oregon and against Indiana boost their rating more than any of their actual wins
21 Michigan Wolverines
22 SMU Mustangs
23 Texas Longhorns Don't lose to Florida if you want to be a top 10 team
24 Florida State Seminoles You can't explain their win against Alabama and neither can my model
25 North Texas Mean Green

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