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MADBuc49 Ballot for 2025 Week 16 & Bowls

Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Dec. 8, 2025, 11:20 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Week 16 notes: I do not punish or actively drop teams who lose in their conference championship games - it can only help winners get a higher seed and anyone who goes down in rankings it is because a winner hopped over them. Methodology: FIRST layer (computer portion): SP+, opponents’ SP+, opponents’ opponents’ SP+, opponents’ win %, opponents’ opponents’ win %. SECOND layer (human portion): home/field/away, key injuries, P5/G5 status, watched game factors (ex: offensive/defensive line domination, rush yards after contact, average point of first contact, defensive penetration on non-inside screens, missed tackles, quarterback throwing release speed, overall turnovers, average starting field position, etc). THIRD layer (human portion): wins/losses vs higher-/lower-/non-ranked teams, recency of those results. FOURTH layer (computer portion): Deservedness = Team A cannot be ranked over Team B that has 2+ fewer losses (ex: 9-3 LSU can be ranked over 10-2 Missouri, but 9-3 LSU cannot be ranked over 11-1 Tulane even if LSU beat Tulane heads up, rankings have LSU over Tulane, and/or I think LSU is better than Tulane) unless Team B is giving a X loss allowance to Team A due to significantly fewer P4 games played. Loss allowances come into play when: P5 teams play 2 fewer P5 games than another P5 team (ex: 9-3 Arizona plays 10 P5 games, 11-1 Syracuse plays 8 P5 games, 10-8=2, 9-3 Arizona can be ranked over 11-1 Syracuse); P5 teams play 6 fewer P5 games than a G5 team (11-1 Syracuse plays 8 P5 teams, 9-3 Charlotte plays 2 P5 teams, 8-2=6, 9-3 Charlotte can be ranked over 11-1 Syracuse); G5 teams play 10 fewer P5 teams than a P5 team (ex: 9-3 Arizona plays 10 P5 games, 11-1 Liberty plays 0 P5 games, 10-0=0, 9-3 Arizona can be ranked over 11-1 Liberty); or G5 teams play 2 fewer P5 games than another G5 team (ex: 9-3 Charlotte plays 2 P5 games, 11-1 Liberty plays 0 P5 games, 2-0=2, 9-3 Charlotte can be ranked over 11-1 Liberty). If the game differential exceeds more than 2/6/10/2 in those scenarios, add another loss allowance for each additional P5 game played difference in that scenario.

Rank Team Reason
1 Indiana Hoosiers +1. Would be the #1 playoff seed in this scenario, playing the winner of #8 Oklahoma/#9 BYU in the Rose Bowl
2 Ohio State Buckeyes -1. Would be the #2 playoff seed in this scenario, playing the winner of #Ole Miss/#10 Alabama in the Orange Bowl
3 Georgia Bulldogs +0. Would be the #3 playoff seed in this scenario, playing the winner of #6 Texas A&M/#11 Tulane in the Sugar Bowl
4 Texas Tech Red Raiders +2. Would be the #4 playoff seed in this scenario, playing the winner of #5 Oregon/#12 JMU in the Cotton Bowl
5 Oregon Ducks -1. Would be the #5 playoff seed in this scenario, hosting #12 JMU in the first round
6 Texas A&M Aggies -1. Would be the #6 playoff seed in this scenario, hosting #11 Tulane in the first round
7 Ole Miss Rebels +0. Would be the #7 playoff seed in this scenario, hosting #10 Alabama in the first round. Head-to-head over Oklahoma
8 Oklahoma Sooners +0. Would be the #8 playoff seed in this scenario, hosting #9 BYU in the first round. Head-to-head over Alabama
9 BYU Cougars +1. Would be the #9 playoff seed in this scenario, playing at #8 Oklahoma in the first round. Swapped with Alabama to prevent Oklahoma/Alabama rematch in first round
10 Alabama Crimson Tide -1. Would be the #10 playoff seed in this scenario, playing at #7 Ole Miss in the first round. Head-to-head over Georgia - foursome tiebreaker with Georgia, Ole Miss, and Oklahoma settled with Alabama losing to Georgia in rematch and having worst loss to FSU. Swapped with Alabama to prevent Oklahoma/Alabama rematch in first round
11 Utah Utes +0
12 Virginia Cavaliers +0
13 Miami Hurricanes +0. Head-to-head over Notre Dame
14 Notre Dame Fighting Irish +0
15 Vanderbilt Commodores +0
16 Tulane Green Wave +0. Would be the #11 playoff seed in this scenario, playing at #6 Texas A&M in the first round
17 James Madison Dukes +0. Would be the #12 playoff seed in this scenario, playing at #5 Oregon in the first round
18 Texas Longhorns +0
19 USC Trojans +0. Head-to-head over Michigan
20 Michigan Wolverines +0
21 TCU Horned Frogs +0. Deservedness allowance over Navy (11 P4 games (P4) - 1 P4 games (G6) = 11 = 1 allowance). Deservedness allowance over North Texas (11 P4 games (P4) - 0 P4 games (G6) = 11 w/ G6 (0 P4) = 3 allowance). Head-to-head over Houston
22 Houston Cougars +0. Head-to-head over Arizona
23 Arizona Wildcats +0
24 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +0
25 USF Bulls +0. Head-to-head over UNT, wins USF/UNT/Navy tiebreaker due to best win (27 points on road at UNT) and best loss (3 points on road at Navy)

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