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LegionMammal978 Ballot for 2025 Week 16 & Bowls

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Dec. 7, 2025, 12:19 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Computer poll designed to give the simplest possible explanation for all games in the current season (a maximum-likelihood estimate), or equivalently, to evenly balance the strength of each team's best wins against its worst losses. The underlying probability model is an Elo-like logistic curve P[A > B] = 1/(1+10^[(B-A)/400]). The ranking is based only on this season's wins and losses: margin of victory, last season's performance, conferences and divisions, etc. are not considered. There is no recency bias or inertia: every week is counted equally. The top 25 is filtered to FBS teams, but all lower-division NCAA teams are included in the calculations. A tie counts as ½ W + ½ L. Within groups where each team has transitively beaten all the others ("circles of suck"), the MLE converges on a fixed result, and assigns a Team Score to each team. To compare between groups, I add two fictitious teams, a "top" team who has beaten everyone and a "bottom" team who has lost to everyone, then let the score gap between them stretch to infinity while applying MLE: each group ends up a fraction of the way between the bottom and top, which is its Group Score. All Group Scores respect the transitive property between groups. For each team in a nontrivial group, I've listed the computed balance between wins and losses to yield its Team Score. The full ranking can be found at <https://gist.github.com/LegionMammal978/7452701291b7cc88fd77b8799df5e63f>. All data is sourced from CollegeFootballData.com. For reference this week, the FBS conference champions are ranked #1 Indiana (B1G), #4 Georgia (SEC), #9 Texas Tech (B12), #21 Tulane (Am.), #37 James Madison (SBC), #41 Duke (ACC), #57 Boise State (MWC), #69 Kennesaw State (CUSA), and #80 Western Michigan (MAC).

Rank Team Reason
1 Indiana Hoosiers (±0) Group Score .900, Team Score 611.
2 Ohio State Buckeyes (±0) Group Score .800, Team Score 1160.
3 Oregon Ducks (±0) Group Score .800, Team Score 1016.
4 Georgia Bulldogs (±0) Group Score .700, Team Score 1884: 46.7% #5 Ole Miss + 27.5% #6 Texas + 19.7% #10 Alabama + 3.3% #17 Tennessee + 0.9% #32 Georgia Tech + 0.7% #35 Florida + 0.6% #40 Mississippi State + 0.4% #47 Kentucky + 0.3% #51 Auburn = 100.0% #10 Alabama.
5 Ole Miss Rebels (±0) Group Score .700, Team Score 1806: 77.6% #7 Oklahoma + 8.3% #19 LSU + 7.1% #21 Tulane + 2.2% #35 Florida + 1.9% #40 Mississippi State + 1.4% #47 Kentucky + 1.1% #50 South Carolina + 0.2% #79 Washington State + 0.1% #90 Arkansas = 100.0% #4 Georgia.
6 Texas Longhorns (±0) Group Score .700, Team Score 1674: 39.8% #7 Oklahoma + 35.4% #8 Texas A&M + 22.4% #12 Vanderbilt + 1.3% #40 Mississippi State + 0.9% #47 Kentucky + 0.1% #90 Arkansas = 81.1% #35 Florida + 18.9% #4 Georgia + 0.0% #2 Ohio State.
7 Oklahoma Sooners (±0) Group Score .700, Team Score 1661: 52.8% #10 Alabama + 13.5% #15 Michigan + 11.8% #17 Tennessee + 10.1% #18 Missouri + 9.2% #19 LSU + 1.3% #50 South Carolina + 1.2% #51 Auburn + 0.2% #82 Temple = 61.4% #6 Texas + 38.6% #5 Ole Miss.
8 Texas A&M Aggies (+1) Group Score .700, Team Score 1624: 39.5% #14 Notre Dame + 22.4% #18 Missouri + 20.4% #19 LSU + 5.5% #35 Florida + 5.0% #40 Mississippi State + 2.9% #50 South Carolina + 2.7% #51 Auburn + 0.8% #74 UTSA + 0.5% #85 Utah State + 0.3% #90 Arkansas = 100.0% #6 Texas.
9 Texas Tech Red Raiders (+2) Group Score .700, Team Score 1620: 43.8% #11 BYU + 43.8% #11 BYU + 24.4% #13 Utah + 6.2% #26 Houston + 1.5% #53 Kansas State + 1.0% #59 Kansas + 0.8% #64 West Virginia + 0.5% #70 UCF = 121.9% #23 Arizona State.
10 Alabama Crimson Tide (−2) Group Score .700, Team Score 1601: 53.2% #4 Georgia + 22.9% #12 Vanderbilt + 8.0% #17 Tennessee + 6.9% #18 Missouri + 6.3% #19 LSU + 1.0% #49 Wisconsin + 0.9% #50 South Carolina + 0.8% #51 Auburn = 63.2% #61 Florida State + 26.4% #7 Oklahoma + 10.5% #4 Georgia.
11 BYU Cougars (−1) Group Score .700, Team Score 1503: 61.8% #13 Utah + 22.3% #22 Arizona + 15.7% #28 Iowa State + 14.4% #31 TCU + 8.9% #36 Cincinnati + 3.5% #56 East Carolina + 2.3% #64 West Virginia + 1.6% #70 UCF + 1.6% #71 Colorado + 1.3% #75 Stanford = 66.7% #9 Texas Tech + 66.7% #9 Texas Tech.
12 Vanderbilt Commodores (±0) Group Score .700, Team Score 1502: 32.2% #17 Tennessee + 28.0% #18 Missouri + 25.7% #19 LSU + 4.8% #47 Kentucky + 3.9% #50 South Carolina + 3.7% #51 Auburn + 1.1% #73 Virginia Tech + 0.6% #85 Utah State = 57.1% #10 Alabama + 42.9% #6 Texas.
13 Utah Utes (±0) Group Score .700, Team Score 1365: 43.5% #23 Arizona State + 18.7% #36 Cincinnati + 9.6% #53 Kansas State + 8.5% #55 Baylor + 6.6% #59 Kansas + 5.0% #64 West Virginia + 4.3% #67 UCLA + 3.5% #71 Colorado + 0.2% #113 Wyoming = 62.5% #11 BYU + 37.5% #9 Texas Tech.
14 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (±0) Group Score .700, Team Score 1348: 47.7% #16 USC + 20.4% #27 Navy + 11.4% #38 Pittsburgh + 11.4% #39 NC State + 4.8% #57 Boise State + 1.8% #75 Stanford + 0.9% #86 Syracuse + 0.7% #90 Arkansas + 0.4% #103 Purdue + 0.3% #107 Boston College = 80.2% #20 Miami + 19.8% #8 Texas A&M.
15 Michigan Wolverines (±0) Group Score .700, Team Score 1291: 34.7% #30 Washington + 17.7% #43 Northwestern + 17.5% #44 Nebraska + 14.2% #49 Wisconsin + 8.8% #58 New Mexico + 3.5% #76 Michigan State + 2.3% #83 Maryland + 0.9% #103 Purdue + 0.5% #110 Central Michigan = 82.8% #16 USC + 17.2% #7 Oklahoma + 0.0% #2 Ohio State.
16 USC Trojans (±0) Group Score .700, Team Score 1283: 45.7% #15 Michigan + 27.5% #24 Iowa + 10.1% #43 Northwestern + 10.0% #44 Nebraska + 3.0% #67 UCLA + 2.0% #76 Michigan State + 0.6% #96 Missouri State + 0.6% #97 Georgia Southern + 0.5% #103 Purdue = 63.6% #25 Illinois + 36.4% #14 Notre Dame + 0.0% #3 Oregon.
17 Tennessee Volunteers (±0) Group Score .700, Team Score 1264: 36.1% #35 Florida + 32.8% #40 Mississippi State + 24.2% #47 Kentucky + 2.9% #86 Syracuse + 2.2% #90 Arkansas + 1.5% #101 UAB + 0.2% #126 New Mexico State = 45.3% #12 Vanderbilt + 28.0% #10 Alabama + 20.6% #7 Oklahoma + 6.1% #4 Georgia.
18 Missouri Tigers (±0) Group Score .700, Team Score 1235: 36.9% #40 Mississippi State + 23.1% #50 South Carolina + 21.6% #51 Auburn + 14.6% #59 Kansas + 2.5% #90 Arkansas + 1.3% #106 Louisiana = 38.5% #12 Vanderbilt + 23.5% #10 Alabama + 20.9% #8 Texas A&M + 17.2% #7 Oklahoma.
19 LSU Tigers (±0) Group Score .700, Team Score 1217: 44.6% #35 Florida + 25.6% #50 South Carolina + 22.1% #54 Clemson + 2.8% #90 Arkansas + 2.7% #91 Western Kentucky + 2.0% #100 Louisiana Tech + 0.2% SE Louisiana = 35.9% #12 Vanderbilt + 21.8% #10 Alabama + 19.3% #8 Texas A&M + 15.9% #7 Oklahoma + 7.2% #5 Ole Miss.
20 Miami Hurricanes (±0) Group Score .700, Team Score 1213: 41.1% #14 Notre Dame + 14.5% #33 South Florida + 12.4% #35 Florida + 11.4% #38 Pittsburgh + 11.4% #39 NC State + 4.0% #61 Florida State + 2.1% #73 Virginia Tech + 2.0% #75 Stanford + 1.0% #86 Syracuse = 51.1% #46 SMU + 48.9% #42 Louisville.
21 Tulane Green Wave (+7) Group Score .700, Team Score 1187: 33.7% #29 North Texas + 21.2% #41 Duke + 18.3% #43 Northwestern + 10.1% #56 East Carolina + 7.8% #62 Memphis + 4.2% #72 Army + 2.7% #82 Temple + 1.2% #95 Florida Atlantic + 0.5% #112 Tulsa + 0.3% #116 South Alabama = 97.2% #74 UTSA + 2.8% #5 Ole Miss.
22 Arizona Wildcats (±0) Group Score .700, Team Score 1144: 39.2% #23 Arizona State + 21.2% #36 Cincinnati + 12.0% #53 Kansas State + 10.7% #55 Baylor + 8.5% #59 Kansas + 4.7% #71 Colorado + 3.6% #77 Hawai'i + 0.1% #131 Oklahoma State = 46.8% #28 Iowa State + 44.4% #26 Houston + 8.9% #11 BYU.
23 Arizona State Sun Devils (±0) Group Score .700, Team Score 1143: 46.4% #9 Texas Tech + 20.1% #28 Iowa State + 19.0% #31 TCU + 6.8% #55 Baylor + 4.2% #64 West Virginia + 3.0% #71 Colorado + 0.5% #105 Texas State = 36.7% #40 Mississippi State + 27.9% #26 Houston + 24.7% #22 Arizona + 10.8% #13 Utah.
24 Iowa Hawkeyes (±0) Group Score .700, Team Score 1142: 24.6% #44 Nebraska + 23.9% #45 Minnesota + 20.5% #49 Wisconsin + 17.4% #52 Penn State + 8.2% #66 Rutgers + 5.4% #76 Michigan State = 65.8% #28 Iowa State + 34.2% #16 USC + 0.0% #3 Oregon + 0.0% #1 Indiana.
25 Illinois Fighting Illini (±0) Group Score .700, Team Score 1127: 51.1% #16 USC + 19.6% #41 Duke + 17.1% #43 Northwestern + 5.8% #66 Rutgers + 2.8% #80 Western Michigan + 2.6% #83 Maryland + 1.0% #103 Purdue = 57.7% #49 Wisconsin + 42.3% #30 Washington + 0.0% #2 Ohio State + 0.0% #1 Indiana.

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