DataDrivenPirate Ballot for 2025 Week 15
Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Dec. 2, 2025, 10:10 a.m.
Overall Rationale: Computer model that minimizes the squared error difference between projected spread and actual spread, adjusted for home field advantage (~2.5pts) and with a decay to put more weight in recent games and less weight in games earlier in the season. Ratings are in parentheses in description for select teams. Happy to report that Florida State finally fell out of the top 25
| Rank | Team | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
(30) |
| 2 |
Texas Tech Red Raiders
|
(27.67) |
| 3 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
(27.32) Model doesn't take game control into account, just final margin, so this was seen as a bit of a disappointing win against Michigan |
| 4 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
(26.01) |
| 5 |
Oregon Ducks
|
(25.59) |
| 6 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
(23.47) |
| 7 |
Utah Utes
|
(22.62) |
| 8 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
(21.61) |
| 9 |
Vanderbilt Commodores
|
(20.67) |
| 10 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
(20.08) |
| 11 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
Their resume is kinda poor for a 1 loss team |
| 12 |
USC Trojans
|
|
| 13 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
|
| 14 |
BYU Cougars
|
|
| 15 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
(19.30) |
| 16 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
|
| 17 |
USF Bulls
|
|
| 18 |
Washington Huskies
|
|
| 19 |
Arizona Wildcats
|
|
| 20 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
(17.50) |
| 21 |
SMU Mustangs
|
Highest variance team in the top 25 |
| 22 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
|
| 23 |
Texas Longhorns
|
|
| 24 |
North Texas Mean Green
|
|
| 25 |
James Madison Dukes
|
(15.37) |
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
0.04 |
| 2 |
Texas Tech Red Raiders
|
0.92 |
| 3 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
-1.02 |
| 4 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
1.32 |
| 5 |
Oregon Ducks
|
0.00 |
| 6 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
1.72 |
| 7 |
Utah Utes
|
2.45 |
| 8 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
0.33 |
| 9 |
Vanderbilt Commodores
|
1.56 |
| 10 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
7.69 |
| 11 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
-1.22 |
| 12 |
USC Trojans
|
1.41 |
| 13 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
-5.41 |
| 14 |
BYU Cougars
|
-0.84 |
| 15 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
-1.36 |
| 16 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
-3.05 |
| 17 |
USF Bulls
|
6.74 |
| 18 |
Washington Huskies
|
6.92 |
| 19 |
Arizona Wildcats
|
0.69 |
| 20 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
5.16 |
| 21 |
SMU Mustangs
|
4.05 |
| 22 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
-0.18 |
| 23 |
Texas Longhorns
|
-1.65 |
| 24 |
North Texas Mean Green
|
-0.92 |
| 25 |
James Madison Dukes
|
-1.01 |
Omissions:
| Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|
Virginia Cavaliers
|
2.35 |
Tulane Green Wave
|
1.22 |
Navy Midshipmen
|
0.41 |
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
|
0.20 |
Total Score: 61.84