thatoneguyD13 Ballot for 2025 Week 15
Ballot Type: Human
Submitted: Dec. 1, 2025, 9:55 p.m.
Overall Rationale: Early season rankings are based largely on expected results versus other ranked teams, and as the season goes leans more heavily on results. By the end of the season, rankings are based entirely on resume. I lean heavily into head to head results and results against common opponents. I also sort teams into 6 tiers based on championship/playoff likelihood. Tier 1: Championship Frontrunners who are highly likely to make the playoffs, Tier 2: Playoff Teams who could conceivably win the championship but are behind Tier 1, Tier 3: Playoff Possibilities who are unlikely to compete for a championship, Tier 4: Teams with an outside shot at making the playoffs, Tier 5: Teams that can't make the playoffs except for winning conference or unprecedented chaos Tier 6: Teams that are eliminated from playoff contention. Tiers 5 and 6 don't enter into the top 25 until very late in the year.
| Rank | Team | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
Tier 1. Playoff lock. |
| 2 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
Tier 1. Playoff lock. |
| 3 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
Tier 2. Playoff lock. |
| 4 |
Texas Tech Red Raiders
|
Tier 2. Playoff lock. |
| 5 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
Tier 2. Playoff lock. |
| 6 |
Oregon Ducks
|
Tier 2. Playoff lock. |
| 7 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
Tier 2. Playoff lock. |
| 8 |
BYU Cougars
|
Tier 3. They should be in no matter what but the committee may disagree. |
| 9 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
Tier 3. Probably in. |
| 10 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
Tier 3. Likely in no matter what, but if they lost bad enough in the SECCG maybe they could miss. |
| 11 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
Tier 3. 50/50 |
| 12 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
Tier 3. 50/50 |
| 13 |
Vanderbilt Commodores
|
Tier 4. Likely out. |
| 14 |
Virginia Cavaliers
|
Tier 4. Win and they're in, lose and they're out. |
| 15 |
Utah Utes
|
Tier 5. Out |
| 16 |
Texas Longhorns
|
Tier 5. Out |
| 17 |
USC Trojans
|
Tier 5. Out |
| 18 |
North Texas Mean Green
|
Tier 5. Win and they're in, lose and they're out. |
| 19 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
Tier 6. |
| 20 |
Tulane Green Wave
|
Tier 5. Win and they're in, lose and they're out. |
| 21 |
James Madison Dukes
|
Tier 5. They need a bit of help, but I think they're ahead of Duke no matter what. |
| 22 |
Navy Midshipmen
|
Tier 6. |
| 23 |
Arizona Wildcats
|
Tier 6. |
| 24 |
Houston Cougars
|
Tier 6. |
| 25 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
Tier 6. |
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
0.00 |
| 2 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
0.00 |
| 3 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
0.00 |
| 4 |
Texas Tech Red Raiders
|
0.00 |
| 5 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
0.04 |
| 6 |
Oregon Ducks
|
-0.13 |
| 7 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
0.00 |
| 8 |
BYU Cougars
|
0.00 |
| 9 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
0.00 |
| 10 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
0.00 |
| 11 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
0.00 |
| 12 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
-0.04 |
| 13 |
Vanderbilt Commodores
|
0.00 |
| 14 |
Virginia Cavaliers
|
0.30 |
| 15 |
Utah Utes
|
0.00 |
| 16 |
Texas Longhorns
|
0.00 |
| 17 |
USC Trojans
|
0.00 |
| 18 |
North Texas Mean Green
|
0.00 |
| 19 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
0.00 |
| 20 |
Tulane Green Wave
|
0.00 |
| 21 |
James Madison Dukes
|
0.00 |
| 22 |
Navy Midshipmen
|
0.05 |
| 23 |
Arizona Wildcats
|
0.00 |
| 24 |
Houston Cougars
|
0.22 |
| 25 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
0.10 |
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets