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MADBuc49 Ballot for 2025 Week 15

Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Dec. 1, 2025, 1:21 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Week 15 notes: first update to Deservedness since 2023 - P4 teams playing 9 P4 games get a loss allowance over a G6 team playing 0 P4 games (10 = 2 loss allowance, 11 = 3 loss allowance). Previously they needed 10 to get a loss allowance, but it is abundantly clear that a G6 team playing 0 P4 games is a deliberate action to not schedule good opponents. Methodology: FIRST layer (computer portion): SP+, opponents’ SP+, opponents’ opponents’ SP+, opponents’ win %, opponents’ opponents’ win %. SECOND layer (human portion): home/field/away, key injuries, P5/G5 status, watched game factors (ex: offensive/defensive line domination, rush yards after contact, average point of first contact, defensive penetration on non-inside screens, missed tackles, quarterback throwing release speed, overall turnovers, average starting field position, etc). THIRD layer (human portion): wins/losses vs higher-/lower-/non-ranked teams, recency of those results. FOURTH layer (computer portion): Deservedness = Team A cannot be ranked over Team B that has 2+ fewer losses (ex: 9-3 LSU can be ranked over 10-2 Missouri, but 9-3 LSU cannot be ranked over 11-1 Tulane even if LSU beat Tulane heads up, rankings have LSU over Tulane, and/or I think LSU is better than Tulane) unless Team B is giving a X loss allowance to Team A due to significantly fewer P4 games played. Loss allowances come into play when: P5 teams play 2 fewer P5 games than another P5 team (ex: 9-3 Arizona plays 10 P5 games, 11-1 Syracuse plays 8 P5 games, 10-8=2, 9-3 Arizona can be ranked over 11-1 Syracuse); P5 teams play 6 fewer P5 games than a G5 team (11-1 Syracuse plays 8 P5 teams, 9-3 Charlotte plays 2 P5 teams, 8-2=6, 9-3 Charlotte can be ranked over 11-1 Syracuse); G5 teams play 10 fewer P5 teams than a P5 team (ex: 9-3 Arizona plays 10 P5 games, 11-1 Liberty plays 0 P5 games, 10-0=0, 9-3 Arizona can be ranked over 11-1 Liberty); or G5 teams play 2 fewer P5 games than another G5 team (ex: 9-3 Charlotte plays 2 P5 games, 11-1 Liberty plays 0 P5 games, 2-0=2, 9-3 Charlotte can be ranked over 11-1 Liberty). If the game differential exceeds more than 2/6/10/2 in those scenarios, add another loss allowance for each additional P5 game played difference in that scenario.

Rank Team Reason
1 Ohio State Buckeyes +1. Would be the #1 playoff seed in this scenario, playing the winner of #8 Oklahoma/#9 Alabama in the Rose Bowl
2 Indiana Hoosiers -1. Would be the #2 playoff seed in this scenario, playing the winner of #7 Ole Miss/#10 BYU in the Orange Bowl
3 Georgia Bulldogs +1. Would be the #3 playoff seed in this scenario, playing the winner of #6 Texas Tech/#11 Virginia in the Sugar Bowl. Head-to-head over Ole Miss
4 Oregon Ducks +1. Would be the #4 playoff seed in this scenario, playing the winner of #5 Texas A&M/#12 Tulane in the Cotton Bowl
5 Texas A&M Aggies -2. Would be the #5 playoff seed in this scenario, hosting #12 Tulane in the first round
6 Texas Tech Red Raiders +0. Would be the #6 playoff seed in this scenario, hosting #11 Virginia in the first round
7 Ole Miss Rebels +0. Would be the #7 playoff seed in this scenario, hosting #10 BYU in the first round. Head-to-head over Oklahoma. Not dinging them yet for losing HC and OC as new play caller does not always mean worst team the next game
8 Oklahoma Sooners +0. Would be the #8 seed in this scenario, hosting #9 Alabama in the first round. Head-to-head over Alabama. Disregard this scenario because an Alabama win in the SEC CCG probably puts them over Georgia and an Alabama loss knocks Alabama behind JMU do to no loss allowance - so there really is no chance of a first-round rematch right now
9 Alabama Crimson Tide +0. Would be the #9 playoff seed in this scenario, playing at #8 Oklahoma in the first round. Head-to-head over Georgia - foursome tiebreaker with Georgia, Ole Miss, and Oklahoma settled with Alabama having worst loss to FSU. Disregard this scenario because an Alabama win in the SEC CCG probably puts them over Georgia and an Alabama loss knocks Alabama behind JMU do to no loss allowance - so there really is no chance of a first-round rematch right now
10 BYU Cougars +0. Would be the #10 playoff seed in this scenario, playing at #7 Ole Miss in the first round. Head-to-head over Utah
11 Utah Utes +0
12 Virginia Cavaliers +0. Would be the #11 playoff seed in this scenario, playing at #6 Texas Tech in the first round.
13 Miami Hurricanes +0. Head-to-head over Notre Dame
14 Notre Dame Fighting Irish +0. Head-to-head over USC
15 Vanderbilt Commodores +0
16 Tulane Green Wave +2. Would be the #12 playoff seed in this scenario, playing at #5 Texas A&M in the first round.
17 James Madison Dukes +2
18 Texas Longhorns NEW. Deservedness update brings loss allowance over North Texas (9 P4 games (P4) - 0 P4 games (G6) = 1 loss allowance). Deservedness keeping them behind James Madison
19 USC Trojans +1. Head-to-head over Michigan. Deservedness allowance over North Texas (10 P4 games (P4) - 0 P4 games (G6) = 10 = 2 allowance). Deservedness keeping them behind James Madison
20 Michigan Wolverines -4. Deservedness allowance over North Texas (10 P4 games (P4) - 0 P4 games (G6) = 10 = 2 allowance). Deservedness keeping them behind James Madison
21 TCU Horned Frogs +2. Head-to-head over Houston. Deservedness allowance over North Texas (11 P4 games (P4) - 0 P4 games (G6) = 11 = 3 allowance). Deservedness keeping them behind James Madison
22 Houston Cougars NEW. Deservedness update brings loss allowance over North Texas (9 P4 games (P4) - 0 P4 games (G6) = 1 loss allowance). Head-to-head over Arizona. Deservedness keeping them behind James Madison
23 Arizona Wildcats +1. Deservedness allowance over North Texas (10 P4 games (P4) - 0 P4 games (G6) = 10 = 2 allowance). Deservedness keeping them behind James Madison
24 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -7. Deservedness allowance over North Texas (10 P4 games (P4) - 0 P4 games (G6) = 10 = 2 allowance). Deservedness keeping them behind James Madison
25 USF Bulls NEW. Deservedness allowance over North Texas (2 P4 games (G6) - 0 P4 games (G6) = 2 = 1 allowance). Head-to-head over UNT, wins USF/UNT/Navy tiebreaker due to best win (27 points on road at UNT) and best loss (3 points on road at Navy). Next three: New Mexico, UNLV, Navy. Do not want to compare and contrast North Texas and the ten remaining 3- and 4-loss teams with loss allowances over UNT if I do not have to

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