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HieloLuz Ballot for 2025 Week 15

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Nov. 30, 2025, 10:12 p.m.

Overall Rationale: I use a computer ranking which is a pure resume based points system. Teams are assigned a tier based on their rating (1-7). Points are gained for wins, subtracted for losses, based on the opponents tier. Small modifiers for game closeness and SOS based on Opponent's record. | I use this to sort teams into buckets, then give ranks based primarily on quality wins (top 50 teams), worst losses, and head to head. | | | | Week 14 | Biggest Risers: T136= Cal (+25) , T25= Navy (+7) | Biggest Drop: T136= Maryland (-15) , T25= Texas A&M (-6) | New teams: Virginia, Wake Forest, Houston | Dropped from rankings: Louisville (13), Illinois (23), Iowa (25) | Next 5: East Carolina, Louisville, Navy, Illinois, Pitt | Worst Team UMass (-360.690) | | | | Playoff predictions (post championship week) *Conference Autobid | | Rose: 1. Indiana* | Sugar: 2. Georgia* | Cotton: 4. Texas Tech* | Orange: 3. Ohio State | 5 v 12: 12. Virginia* @ 5. Oregon | 6 v 11: 11. North Texas* @ 6. BYU | 7 v 10: 10. Notre Dame @ 7. Ole Miss | 8 v 9: 9. Texas A&M @ 8. Miami (FL) | | | |

Rank Team Reason
1 Indiana Hoosiers Quality Wins: Oregon |2|, Iowa |3|, Old Dominion |4|, Kennesaw State |4|, Illinois |4| Losses: None. Oregon win remains among the best of any playoff teams, and will keep them in the #1 spot. Playoff Lock 1-3.
2 Ohio State Buckeyes Quality Wins: Texas |3|, Michigan |3|, Washington |3|, Illinois |4| Losses: None. Playoff Lock 1-4. Bucket B ↓
3 Georgia Bulldogs Quality Wins: Ole Miss |2|, Texas |3|, Georgia Tech |3|, Tennessee |4| Losses: Alabama |2| Georgia is the top of bucket B thanks in large part to having a rare win over another playoff bound team, and a good loss. Playoff lock 2-6.
4 Oregon Ducks Quality Wins: Iowa |3|, USC |3|, Washington |3| Losses: Indiana |1| Oregon ends the year with a run of quality wins, and is the only playoff bound team to have lost to an undefeated team. Playoff lock 4-5.
5 Texas Tech Red Raiders Quality Wins: BYU |2|, Utah |3|, Houston |4| Losses: Arizona State |4| The H2H win over BYU is doing a lot of heavy lifting for Texas Tech, as BYU's resume is among the best of anyone, and I won't put Texas Tech below a team they beat in the same bucket. Playoff Lock 2-7.
6 BYU Cougars Quality Wins: East Carolina |3|, Arizona |3|, Utah |3|, Iowa State |4|, TCU |4| Losses: Texas Tech |2| BYU has among the best resume of this bucket, but they lack a statement win. Still the number of quality wins will keep them high up. Playoff Lock 2-7.
7 Ole Miss Rebels Quality Wins: Oklahoma |2|, Tulane |3|, LSU |4| Losses: Georgia |2| Ole Miss has a great win over Oklahoma, but the rest of the resume is lacking, but the only loss being to another playoff team is good. Playoff Lock 7-8.
8 Miami Hurricanes Quality Wins: Notre Dame |2|, USF |3|, Pitt |3|, NC State |4| Losses: Louisville |3|, SMU |3| Miami picks up one more quality win to make their playoff statement, and it puts them firmly in the playoff to me. The H2H win over Notre Dame should keep them locked into the playoff. Playoff Lock 8-9.
9 Texas A&M Aggies Quality Wins: Notre Dame |2|, LSU |4|, Missouri |4| Losses: Texas |3| Texas A&M has had a weak schedule all year, and taking a loss drops them 6 spots. H2H win over Notre Dame should keep them locked into the playoff. Playoff Lock 9-10
10 Notre Dame Fighting Irish Quality Wins: USC |3|, Navy |3|, Pitt |3|, Boise State |4|, NC State |4| Losses: Miami (FL) |2|, Texas A&M |2| A huge drop, but for the first time they are in the same bucket Miami (FL), which hampers them considerably, they need Alabama to lose to make the playoff. Playoff hopeful 10-out. Bucket C ↓
11 Oklahoma Sooners Quality Wins: Alabama |2|, Michigan |3|, Tennessee |4|, Missouri |4|, LSU |4| Losses: Ole Miss |2|, Texas |3| They have a number of solid wins, and their losses aren't bad, but they are clearly a step below the teams in Bucket C, and another close game against a not great team proves it. Oklahoma is out of the playoff due to two lower seed autobids making it.
12 Alabama Crimson Tide Quality Wins: Georgia |2|, Vanderbilt |3|, Missouri |4|, LSU |4|, Tennessee |4| Losses: Oklahoma |2|, Florida State |5| Wins are equal to Oklahoma, but this includes a H2H loss, the loss to Florida State continues to hurt them. If they win the SEC Championship they're in, but otherwise they're out. If they win I see them jumping all the way up to 5. Playoff hopeful 5-out.
13 Vanderbilt Commodores Quality Wins: LSU |4|, Missouri |4|, Tennessee |4| Losses: Alabama |2|, Texas |3| They have 3 quality wins, over the same 3 as Oklahoma and Alabama funnily enough. But nothing else, and they lost the H2H over Alabama. Despite the 2 losses the 3 wins keep them ahead of the rest of the bucket, which have 1 quality win each. They are out of the playoff
14 North Texas Mean Green Quality Wins: Navy |3| Losses: USF |3| 1-1 in meaningful games, and a better win than Utah will keep them in the middle of the bucket. They make the playoff with an American Championship.
15 Utah Utes Quality Wins: Arizona State |4| Losses: Texas Tech |2|, BYU |2| Down to one quality win thanks to other teams failing through the end of the year. Equal win to JMU, and despite having the extra loss, both are to playoff teams. They flirted with the playoff, but are firmly out of the picture now.
16 James Madison Dukes Quality Wins: Old Dominion |4| Losses: Louisville |3| Still at the bottom of the bucket due to only having the 1 quality win. They can make the playoff with a Sun Belt Championship and either Duke or Tulane winning a championship. Bucket D ↓
17 Texas Longhorns Quality Wins: Oklahoma |2|, Texas A&M |2|, Vanderbilt |3| Losses: Ohio State |1|, Georgia |2|, Florida |5| The loss to Florida |5| is still among the worst of any top 25 team, only Tulane's loss to UTSA |5| rivals it. But the 2 huge wins over playoff potential teams will place them at the top of a bucket. While they are 3-2 against top 25 teams, the rest of their wins are dreadfully bad, with those 6 teams being a combined 14-53 against FBS competition. This schedule does not justify a playoff position.
18 Navy Midshipmen Quality Wins: USF |3|, Memphis |3| Losses: Notre Dame |2|, North Texas |3| Navy has the best losses among this bucket, and their 2 wins are decent.
19 USC Trojans Quality Wins: Michigan |3|, Iowa |3| Losses: Notre Dame |2|, Oregon |2|, Illinois |4| Notre Dame doesn't have any bad losses, and the H2H over Michigan keeps them near the top of the bucket.
20 Michigan Wolverines Quality Wins: Washington |3|, New Mexico |4| Losses: Ohio State |1|, Oklahoma |2|, USC |3| New Mexico has quietly become a quality win, but they still went 0-3 against other top 25 teams.
21 Virginia Cavaliers Quality Wins: Louisville |3|, Duke |4| Losses: Wake Forest |3|, NC State |4| Virginia has 2 quality wins, and their losses are okay but not great. Another win over Duke this week in the ACC Championship should be enough to vault JMU and land them the 12 seed in the playoff.
22 Tulane Green Wave Quality Wins: East Carolina |3|, Memphis |3|, Duke |4| Losses: Ole Miss |2|, UTSA |5| Some decent wins, but the UTSA loss is still really bad. They still have a shot at the playoff this week with an American Championship, and it would likely land them the 11 seed.
23 USF Bulls Quality Wins: North Texas |3|, Boise State |4| Losses: Miami (FL) |2|, Memphis |3|, Navy |3| None of the losses are bad, and the win over North Texas is pretty good, but that's about all there is to say about this team. Bucket E ↓
24 SMU Mustangs Quality Wins: Miami (FL) |2|, Louisville |3|, Clemson |4| Losses: Wake Forest |3|, TCU |4|, Baylor |5|, Cal |5| SMU and Louisville will get the final 2 spots due to being 2 of the 3 teams with 3 quality wins of this bucket (Wake Forest being the other). At the end of the day, both of them beat Miami, which is a better win than Wake has. Usually H2H results trump all within buckets. But the 5 ACC teams in this bucket has a transitive win over themselves (Pitt > Georgia Tech > Wake Forest > SMU > Louisville > Pitt), so H2H gets thrown out up until placing the top 2 teams.
25 Louisville Cardinals Quality Wins: Miami (FL) |2|, James Madison |3|, Pitt |3| Losses: SMU |3|, Virginia |3|, Clemson |4|, Cal |5| Has a better resume than SMU, but they lose out on H2H. See SMU reason for more details. Other Bucket E teams are: Georgia Tech (only 2 quality wins and weird ACC things), Wake Forest (3 quality wins and weird ACC things), Arizona (only 1 quality win), Pitt (2 quality wins, a bad loss in West Virginia |6|, and weird ACC things), Iowa (no quality wins), UNLV (no quality wins), Memphis (worst loss of any T3+ team from UAB |7|, East Carolina (one 1 quality win and 4 losses), and Washington (only 1 quality win and 4 losses, of which the Wisconsin |6| loss is really bad).

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