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shamShaman Ballot for 2025 Week 15

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Nov. 30, 2025, 6:58 p.m.

Overall Rationale: My model only uses on-the-field data from this season to make an opponent-adjusted profile for passing and rushing ypg, scoring efficiency, and a percentage of each of these stats allowed on defense. The model uses this to see how likely each team is to beat each other team, and then ranks teams based on their expected number of wins against the other 135 teams in college football. This win percentage is then scaled by each team's actual win percentage to avoid weirdness like 3-9 Nebraska being ranked when I first started this ranking a few years back. The model doesn't consider recruiting or past seasons so it tends to be better at identifying the surprising teams each season.

Rank Team Reason
1 Ohio State Buckeyes Expected Wins: 128.57
2 Indiana Hoosiers Expected Wins: 128.51
3 Oregon Ducks Expected Wins: 115.30
4 Texas Tech Red Raiders Expected Wins: 113.50
5 Ole Miss Rebels Expected Wins: 102.40
6 Texas A&M Aggies Expected Wins: 101.13
7 Georgia Bulldogs Expected Wins: 100.58
8 BYU Cougars Expected Wins: 99.64
9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish Expected Wins: 99.43
10 Miami Hurricanes Expected Wins: 99.06
11 Alabama Crimson Tide Expected Wins: 97.22
12 Utah Utes Expected Wins: 96.21
13 Vanderbilt Commodores Expected Wins: 92.68
14 Oklahoma Sooners Expected Wins: 92.30
15 USC Trojans Expected Wins: 88.46
16 Michigan Wolverines Expected Wins: 83.78
17 James Madison Dukes Expected Wins: 81.78
18 North Texas Mean Green Expected Wins: 78.03
19 Virginia Cavaliers Expected Wins: 76.36
20 Texas Longhorns Expected Wins: 76.14
21 Arizona Wildcats Expected Wins: 76.05
22 Iowa Hawkeyes Expected Wins: 75.89
23 Washington Huskies Expected Wins: 73.83
24 USF Bulls Expected Wins: 69.51
25 Illinois Fighting Illini Expected Wins: 68.63

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