Ballot Type: Human
Submitted: Nov. 30, 2025, 2:22 p.m.
Overall Rationale: figured we'd have a little more fun this week. This will be a bit of a departure from my usual methodology of identifying the 25 teams with the best records, and then ranking those teams holistically based on quality wins, strength of schedule, eye test, etc. We still do that, but from there, it really appears that the 9-3 teams are at a log jam with only Texas actually having a claim to being in the Top 25. Neither Michigan, USC, Georgia Tech, Houston, or Arizona have any signature wins that impress me, and frankly when I look at the top of the FCS, I see teams who can hang and play with all but the best of them. From there, we'll use the Top 12 spots to predict who will get bids to the CFP Invitational. For those purposes, I assume that Ohio State will beat Indiana, Georgia gets revenge on Alabama, Texas Tech beats BYU, Virginia beats Duke, North Texas beats Tulane, and James Madison beats Troy. We know that the committee tends not to punish CCG losers but also does not reward them either. We also know that the Committee does not like resolving conference issues for conferences. We also know that the committee considers off-field factors such as injuries, opt-outs, and coaching changes in their decisions that may ultimately affect the football product of the invitational. With that, here's how I think this year's playoff rankings will look.
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
0.00 |
| 2 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
0.56 |
| 3 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
-0.46 |
| 4 |
Texas Tech Red Raiders
|
0.00 |
| 5 |
Oregon Ducks
|
0.00 |
| 6 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
0.00 |
| 7 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
0.26 |
| 8 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
0.33 |
| 9 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
0.00 |
| 10 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
0.09 |
| 11 |
Virginia Cavaliers
|
1.34 |
| 12 |
North Texas Mean Green
|
0.99 |
| 13 |
BYU Cougars
|
-0.50 |
| 14 |
Vanderbilt Commodores
|
0.00 |
| 15 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
-2.63 |
| 16 |
Utah Utes
|
-0.31 |
| 17 |
James Madison Dukes
|
0.00 |
| 18 |
Texas Longhorns
|
-0.03 |
| 19 |
Tulane Green Wave
|
0.01 |
| 20 |
North Dakota State Bison
|
4.93 |
| 21 |
Montana State Bobcats
|
4.23 |
| 22 |
UNLV Rebels
|
2.19 |
| 23 |
Montana Grizzlies
|
2.22 |
| 24 |
Navy Midshipmen
|
0.00 |
| 25 |
Tarleton State Texans
|
0.25 |
Omissions:
| Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|
USC Trojans
|
2.25 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
1.80 |
Arizona Wildcats
|
1.04 |
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
|
0.20 |
Total Score: 26.62