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LegionMammal978 Ballot for 2025 Week 15

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Nov. 30, 2025, 10:56 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Computer poll designed to give the simplest possible explanation for all games in the current season (a maximum-likelihood estimate), or equivalently, to evenly balance the strength of each team's best wins against its worst losses. The underlying probability model is an Elo-like logistic curve P[A > B] = 1/(1+10^[(B-A)/400]). The ranking is based only on this season's wins and losses: margin of victory, last season's performance, conferences and divisions, etc. are not considered. There is no recency bias or inertia: every week is counted equally. The top 25 is filtered to FBS teams, but games in lower divisions are included in the calculations. A tie counts as ½ W + ½ L. Within groups where each team has transitively beaten all the others ("circles of suck"), the MLE converges on a fixed result, and assigns a Team Score to each team. To compare between groups, I add two fictitious teams, a "top" team who has beaten everyone and a "bottom" team who has lost to everyone, then let the score gap between them stretch to infinity: each group ends up a fraction of the way between the bottom and top, which is its Group Score. All Group Scores respect the transitive property between groups. For each team in a nontrivial group, I've listed the computed balance between wins and losses to yield its Team Score. The full ranking can be found at <https://gist.github.com/LegionMammal978/bea5c15f48568f341641b416cf5ae6f1>. All data is sourced from CollegeFootballData.com.

Rank Team Reason
1 Indiana Hoosiers (±0) Group Score .861, Team Score 1604.
2 Ohio State Buckeyes (±0) Group Score .792, Team Score 2547.
3 Oregon Ducks (+1) Group Score .722, Team Score 3208.
4 Georgia Bulldogs (+1) Group Score .583, Team Score 5227: 55.2% #5 Ole Miss + 35.7% #6 Texas + 4.9% #17 Tennessee + 1.3% #34 Georgia Tech + 1.0% #35 Florida + 0.9% #39 Mississippi State + 0.6% #47 Kentucky + 0.5% #51 Auburn = 100.0% #8 Alabama.
5 Ole Miss Rebels (+1) Group Score .583, Team Score 5174: 78.9% #7 Oklahoma + 9.1% #19 LSU + 4.4% #28 Tulane + 2.4% #35 Florida + 2.1% #39 Mississippi State + 1.5% #47 Kentucky + 1.2% #50 South Carolina + 0.3% #78 Washington State + 0.1% #90 Arkansas = 100.0% #4 Georgia.
6 Texas Longhorns (+3) Group Score .583, Team Score 5058: 39.4% #7 Oklahoma + 35.1% #9 Texas A&M + 23.0% #12 Vanderbilt + 1.4% #39 Mississippi State + 1.0% #47 Kentucky + 0.1% #90 Arkansas = 78.1% #35 Florida + 21.9% #4 Georgia + 0.0% #2 Ohio State.
7 Oklahoma Sooners (±0) Group Score .583, Team Score 5054: 54.4% #8 Alabama + 12.7% #15 Michigan + 11.5% #17 Tennessee + 9.9% #18 Missouri + 8.9% #19 LSU + 1.2% #50 South Carolina + 1.2% #51 Auburn + 0.2% #81 Temple = 59.6% #6 Texas + 40.4% #5 Ole Miss.
8 Alabama Crimson Tide (±0) Group Score .583, Team Score 5020: 53.2% #4 Georgia + 23.4% #12 Vanderbilt + 7.9% #17 Tennessee + 6.8% #18 Missouri + 6.1% #19 LSU + 0.9% #49 Wisconsin + 0.9% #50 South Carolina + 0.8% #51 Auburn = 68.8% #61 Florida State + 31.2% #7 Oklahoma.
9 Texas A&M Aggies (−6) Group Score .583, Team Score 5017: 39.4% #14 Notre Dame + 22.5% #18 Missouri + 20.4% #19 LSU + 5.6% #35 Florida + 4.9% #39 Mississippi State + 2.9% #50 South Carolina + 2.7% #51 Auburn + 0.8% #75 UTSA + 0.5% #84 Utah State + 0.3% #90 Arkansas = 100.0% #6 Texas.
10 BYU Cougars (±0) Group Score .583, Team Score 4950: 47.2% #13 Utah + 16.7% #22 Arizona + 11.7% #29 Iowa State + 10.6% #30 TCU + 6.5% #36 Cincinnati + 2.4% #57 East Carolina + 1.7% #64 West Virginia + 1.2% #69 UCF + 1.1% #70 Colorado + 1.0% #74 Stanford = 100.0% #11 Texas Tech.
11 Texas Tech Red Raiders (±0) Group Score .583, Team Score 4934: 57.6% #10 BYU + 29.1% #13 Utah + 8.0% #27 Houston + 2.0% #52 Kansas State + 1.4% #59 Kansas + 1.1% #64 West Virginia + 0.7% #69 UCF = 100.0% #23 Arizona State.
12 Vanderbilt Commodores (±0) Group Score .583, Team Score 4902: 32.2% #17 Tennessee + 28.1% #18 Missouri + 25.6% #19 LSU + 4.8% #47 Kentucky + 3.9% #50 South Carolina + 3.7% #51 Auburn + 1.1% #71 Virginia Tech + 0.6% #84 Utah State = 53.8% #8 Alabama + 46.2% #6 Texas.
13 Utah Utes (+1) Group Score .583, Team Score 4756: 42.9% #23 Arizona State + 18.9% #36 Cincinnati + 9.7% #52 Kansas State + 8.5% #55 Baylor + 6.6% #59 Kansas + 5.1% #64 West Virginia + 4.4% #66 UCLA + 3.5% #70 Colorado + 0.3% #113 Wyoming = 51.7% #11 Texas Tech + 48.3% #10 BYU.
14 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+1) Group Score .583, Team Score 4746: 46.5% #16 USC + 23.2% #26 Navy + 11.3% #37 Pittsburgh + 11.1% #40 NC State + 3.7% #62 Boise State + 1.9% #74 Stanford + 0.9% #88 Syracuse + 0.7% #90 Arkansas + 0.4% #103 Purdue + 0.3% #107 Boston College = 79.7% #20 Miami + 20.3% #9 Texas A&M.
15 Michigan Wolverines (+3) Group Score .583, Team Score 4682: 34.9% #31 Washington + 17.6% #42 Nebraska + 16.8% #45 Northwestern + 14.4% #49 Wisconsin + 9.2% #58 New Mexico + 3.5% #77 Michigan State + 2.4% #82 Maryland + 0.9% #103 Purdue + 0.5% #110 Central Michigan = 83.0% #16 USC + 17.0% #7 Oklahoma + 0.0% #2 Ohio State.
16 USC Trojans (+3) Group Score .583, Team Score 4674: 45.7% #15 Michigan + 27.7% #24 Iowa + 10.1% #42 Nebraska + 9.6% #45 Northwestern + 3.2% #66 UCLA + 2.0% #77 Michigan State + 0.6% #97 Missouri State + 0.6% #98 Georgia Southern + 0.5% #103 Purdue = 64.5% #25 Illinois + 35.5% #14 Notre Dame + 0.0% #3 Oregon.
17 Tennessee Volunteers (−4) Group Score .583, Team Score 4663: 36.5% #35 Florida + 32.6% #39 Mississippi State + 24.3% #47 Kentucky + 2.7% #88 Syracuse + 2.2% #90 Arkansas + 1.5% #101 UAB + 0.2% #126 New Mexico State = 45.0% #12 Vanderbilt + 25.4% #8 Alabama + 21.2% #7 Oklahoma + 8.3% #4 Georgia.
18 Missouri Tigers (−2) Group Score .583, Team Score 4634: 36.9% #39 Mississippi State + 23.0% #50 South Carolina + 21.7% #51 Auburn + 14.5% #59 Kansas + 2.5% #90 Arkansas + 1.3% #106 Louisiana = 38.7% #12 Vanderbilt + 21.8% #9 Texas A&M + 21.5% #8 Alabama + 18.0% #7 Oklahoma.
19 LSU Tigers (−2) Group Score .583, Team Score 4615: 45.4% #35 Florida + 25.6% #50 South Carolina + 21.3% #54 Clemson + 2.8% #90 Arkansas + 2.7% #91 Western Kentucky + 2.0% #102 Louisiana Tech + 0.1% SE Louisiana = 35.6% #12 Vanderbilt + 19.9% #9 Texas A&M + 19.6% #8 Alabama + 16.4% #7 Oklahoma + 8.5% #5 Ole Miss.
20 Miami Hurricanes (+1) Group Score .583, Team Score 4613: 40.9% #14 Notre Dame + 15.2% #33 South Florida + 12.4% #35 Florida + 11.2% #37 Pittsburgh + 11.1% #40 NC State + 4.1% #61 Florida State + 2.1% #71 Virginia Tech + 2.0% #74 Stanford + 1.0% #88 Syracuse = 51.2% #44 SMU + 48.8% #38 Louisville.
21 North Texas Mean Green (+1) Group Score .583, Team Score 4550: 64.5% #26 Navy + 7.2% #73 Army + 7.0% #75 UTSA + 6.0% #78 Washington State + 4.7% #81 Temple + 4.4% #83 Western Michigan + 3.6% #86 Rice + 1.9% #101 UAB + 0.5% #115 South Alabama + 0.1% Lamar + 0.1% #134 Charlotte = 100.0% #33 South Florida.
22 Arizona Wildcats (+4) Group Score .583, Team Score 4543: 38.9% #23 Arizona State + 21.3% #36 Cincinnati + 12.0% #52 Kansas State + 10.7% #55 Baylor + 8.5% #59 Kansas + 4.7% #70 Colorado + 3.8% #76 Hawai'i + 0.1% #131 Oklahoma State = 47.4% #29 Iowa State + 45.6% #27 Houston + 7.0% #10 BYU.
23 Arizona State Sun Devils (−3) Group Score .583, Team Score 4536: 45.1% #11 Texas Tech + 20.6% #29 Iowa State + 19.4% #30 TCU + 6.9% #55 Baylor + 4.3% #64 West Virginia + 3.1% #70 Colorado + 0.6% #104 Texas State = 36.7% #39 Mississippi State + 28.0% #27 Houston + 24.4% #22 Arizona + 10.9% #13 Utah.
24 Iowa Hawkeyes (±0) Group Score .583, Team Score 4535: 24.6% #42 Nebraska + 23.8% #43 Minnesota + 20.5% #49 Wisconsin + 17.3% #53 Penn State + 8.5% #67 Rutgers + 5.4% #77 Michigan State = 65.4% #29 Iowa State + 34.6% #16 USC + 0.0% #3 Oregon + 0.0% #1 Indiana.
25 Illinois Fighting Illini (±0) Group Score .583, Team Score 4509: 52.8% #16 USC + 17.4% #45 Northwestern + 16.8% #46 Duke + 6.4% #67 Rutgers + 2.8% #82 Maryland + 2.7% #83 Western Michigan + 1.1% #103 Purdue = 58.0% #49 Wisconsin + 42.0% #31 Washington + 0.0% #2 Ohio State + 0.0% #1 Indiana.

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