Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Nov. 30, 2025, 9:37 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Dropped: #20 Arizona State, #21 Tennessee. Next Up: Houston (-9.5), UNLV (-10), Louisville (-10), Arizona State (-10), Iowa (-10). Points are tabulated like this: a win vs. a P5 team is worth the difference between their win total and loss total divided by 2 (e.g. Indiana's win over Oregon is worth 5 points because Oregon went 11-1 so 11-1=10 and 10/2=5), a win vs a G5 team is worth the difference between their win total and loss total divided by 2 subtract 1 (e.g. South Florida's win over North Texas is worth 4 points because North Texas went 11-1 so 11-1=10 and 10/2=5 and 5-1=4), a win vs a FCS team is worth the difference between their win total and loss total divided by 2 subtract 2 (e.g. Oregon's win over Montana State is worth 2 points because Montana State went 10-2 so 10-2=8 and 8/2=4 and 4-2=2), a loss vs a P5 team is worth negative the number of losses that team had minus 1 (e.g. BYU's loss to Texas Tech is worth -2 points because Texas Tech lost 1 game and -1-1=-2), a loss vs a G5 team is worth negative the number of losses that team had minus 2 (e.g. Tulane's loss to UTSA is worth -8 points because UTSA lost 6 games so -6-2=-8), and a loss vs a FCS team is worth negative the number of losses that team had minus 3 (no examples). ND is considered a P5 team, UConn is considered a G5 team, Oregon State and Washington State are considered P5 teams. Wins vs teams that don't have enough wins to be worth points (e.g. Wisconsin) are ignored. I think there are some very clear tier boundaries after #12 Texas and #20 USC. Though I do think there's some muddiness with TAMU/ND/Bama/Texas for those last 2 playoff spots, I ultimately think the decision going to be relatively easy. If Alabama beats Georgia, TAMU goes and ND and Texas are left out. If Georgia wins, TAMU and ND go and Alabama and Texas get left out. I see no reason why BYU should be left out at all, they are a definitive playoff team to me. Even with a loss to TTU in the CCG, I wouldn't drop them any further than 6th (still above Ole Miss, falling behind Georgia/TTU/Oregon). Similarly, I wouldn't drop TTU any further than 8th (still above TAMU/ND/Bama/Texas, falling behind Ole Miss/Oklahoma) with a loss. It will be a travesty if BYU is left out at 11-2 as I think they have one of the deepest bodies of work in the country and I think them having 2 top 25 wins (#14 Utah, #22 Arizona) plus the group of wins over Iowa State, TCU, Cincinnati, and East Carolina means that they've played a very reasonably difficult schedule (amongst contenders, I'd only entertain Oklahoma, Georgia, Alabama, and ND having harder schedules). If you want to put them at #6 below TTU that's fine, but I really can't see putting them so far down that they're at risk if they lose to TTU next week. As for the tiebreaks, the only one I'm unsure about is the JMU/UM/Navy tiebreak, especially since it risks running into the USC/Michigan H2H. I do feel pretty confident about JMU at the top at #17, but Navy only being a half-win above Michigan doesn't feel like enough to offset the SOS considerations while at the same time having Michigan and USC this close without USC being above feels wrong. I'm going to leave it like this, but I think it's just a tricky spot to be in. I wouldn't begrudge anyone who went #18 USC, #19 Michigan, #20 Navy or #18 Navy, #19 USC, #20 Michigan with these 3. Considering how weak I think the #21-#25 spots are, I'd be very open to the idea of ranking North Dakota St at the end of the year if they manage to win the FCS title. South Florida and especially Georgia Tech are very vulnerable there.

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