Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Nov. 24, 2025, 9:47 p.m.

Overall Rationale: My model only uses on-the-field data from this season to make an opponent-adjusted profile for passing and rushing ypg, scoring efficiency, and a percentage of each of these stats allowed on defense. The model uses this to see how likely each team is to beat each other team, and then ranks teams based on their expected number of wins against the other 135 teams in college football. This win percentage is then scaled by each team's actual win percentage to avoid weirdness like 3-9 Nebraska being ranked when I first started this ranking a few years back. The model doesn't consider recruiting or past seasons so it tends to be better at identifying the surprising teams each season.

• Ballot
• Analysis

Rank	Team	Reason
1	Ohio State Buckeyes	Expected Wins: 128.18
2	Indiana Hoosiers	Expected Wins: 127.98
3	Oregon Ducks	Expected Wins: 114.10
4	Texas A&M Aggies	Expected Wins: 112.17
5	Texas Tech Red Raiders	Expected Wins: 111.10
6	Ole Miss Rebels	Expected Wins: 102.53
7	Georgia Bulldogs	Expected Wins: 102.50
8	BYU Cougars	Expected Wins: 98.53
9	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	Expected Wins: 97.42
10	Alabama Crimson Tide	Expected Wins: 96.86
11	Miami Hurricanes	Expected Wins: 95.86
12	Utah Utes	Expected Wins: 95.63
13	Oklahoma Sooners	Expected Wins: 91.54
14	Michigan Wolverines	Expected Wins: 90.82
15	Vanderbilt Commodores	Expected Wins: 90.75
16	USC Trojans	Expected Wins: 86.53
17	Washington Huskies	Expected Wins: 80.26
18	James Madison Dukes	Expected Wins: 77.74
19	North Texas Mean Green	Expected Wins: 77.20
20	Texas Longhorns	Expected Wins: 73.89
21	Tennessee Volunteers	Expected Wins: 72.96
22	Virginia Cavaliers	Expected Wins: 72.88
23	SMU Mustangs	Expected Wins: 72.86
24	Arizona Wildcats	Expected Wins: 72.34
25	Iowa Hawkeyes	Expected Wins: 71.93

Teams Ranked:

Rank	Team	Unusualness
1	Ohio State Buckeyes	0.00
2	Indiana Hoosiers	0.00
3	Oregon Ducks	1.07
4	Texas A&M Aggies	-0.07
5	Texas Tech Red Raiders	0.00
6	Ole Miss Rebels	0.00
7	Georgia Bulldogs	-1.11
8	BYU Cougars	0.00
9	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	0.00
10	Alabama Crimson Tide	0.00
11	Miami Hurricanes	0.15
12	Utah Utes	0.00
13	Oklahoma Sooners	-1.24
14	Michigan Wolverines	0.00
15	Vanderbilt Commodores	0.00
16	USC Trojans	0.32
17	Washington Huskies	4.64
18	James Madison Dukes	0.00
19	North Texas Mean Green	0.00
20	Texas Longhorns	0.00
21	Tennessee Volunteers	0.00
22	Virginia Cavaliers	-0.45
23	SMU Mustangs	0.00
24	Arizona Wildcats	0.59
25	Iowa Hawkeyes	0.00

Omissions:

Team	Unusualness
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	0.53
Tulane Green Wave	0.55
Pittsburgh Panthers	0.21

Total Score: 10.93