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LegionMammal978 Ballot for 2025 Week 14

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Nov. 23, 2025, 12:45 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Computer poll designed to give the maximum-likelihood estimate (i.e., the "simplest possible explanation") for all games in the season, or equivalently, to evenly balance the strength of each team's wins against its losses. The underlying probability model is an Elo-like logistic curve P(A > B) = 1/(1+10^[(B-A)/400]). The ranking is based only on this season's wins and losses: margin of victory, last season's performance, conferences and divisions, etc. are not considered. There is no recency bias or inertia: every week is counted equally. The top 25 is filtered to FBS teams, but games in lower divisions are included in the calculations. A tie counts as ½ W + ½ L. Within groups where each team has transitively beaten all the others ("circles of suck"), the MLE converges on a fixed result, and assigns a Team Score to each team. To compare between groups, I add two fictitious teams, a "top" team who has beaten everyone and a "bottom" team who has lost to everyone, then let the score gap between them stretch to infinity: each group ends up a fraction of the way between the bottom and top, which is its Group Score. All Group Scores respect the transitive property between groups. For each team in a group, I've listed the computed balance between wins and losses to yield its Team Score. The full ranking can be found at <https://gist.github.com/LegionMammal978/ed6cb8b074a3fa44631c6bab49192b9d>. All data is sourced from CollegeFootballData.com.

Rank Team Reason
1 Indiana Hoosiers (±0) Group Score .833, Team Score 1551.
2 Ohio State Buckeyes (±0) Group Score .750, Team Score 2442.
3 Texas A&M Aggies (±0) Group Score .750, Team Score 2425.
4 Oregon Ducks (±0) Group Score .667, Team Score 3102.
5 Georgia Bulldogs (±0) Group Score .500, Team Score 5115: 60.7% #6 Ole Miss + 24.8% #9 Texas + 9.4% #13 Tennessee + 1.8% #30 Kentucky + 1.3% #35 Mississippi State + 1.3% #37 Florida + 0.8% #45 Auburn = 100.0% #8 Alabama.
6 Ole Miss Rebels (±0) Group Score .500, Team Score 5075: 72.1% #7 Oklahoma + 13.7% #17 LSU + 3.8% #23 South Carolina + 3.7% #27 Tulane + 3.6% #30 Kentucky + 2.6% #37 Florida + 0.2% #78 Washington State + 0.1% #89 Arkansas = 100.0% #5 Georgia.
7 Oklahoma Sooners (+1) Group Score .500, Team Score 4944: 52.7% #8 Alabama + 17.4% #13 Tennessee + 13.2% #16 Missouri + 11.1% #18 Michigan + 3.8% #23 South Carolina + 1.7% #45 Auburn + 0.2% #80 Temple = 66.3% #9 Texas + 33.7% #6 Ole Miss.
8 Alabama Crimson Tide (-1) Group Score .500, Team Score 4943: 48.9% #5 Georgia + 19.8% #12 Vanderbilt + 11.1% #13 Tennessee + 8.4% #16 Missouri + 8.2% #17 LSU + 2.4% #23 South Carolina + 1.2% #42 Wisconsin = 66.6% #55 Florida State + 33.4% #7 Oklahoma.
9 Texas Longhorns (+2) Group Score .500, Team Score 4853: 55.0% #7 Oklahoma + 36.3% #12 Vanderbilt + 4.9% #30 Kentucky + 3.6% #35 Mississippi State + 0.2% #89 Arkansas = 84.1% #37 Florida + 15.9% #5 Georgia + 0.0% #2 Ohio State.
10 BYU Cougars (±0) Group Score .500, Team Score 4837: 51.7% #14 Utah + 12.2% #26 Arizona + 11.5% #31 Iowa State + 9.6% #33 TCU + 8.4% #39 Cincinnati + 2.4% #54 East Carolina + 1.8% #62 West Virginia + 1.5% #66 Colorado + 0.8% #77 Stanford = 100.0% #11 Texas Tech.
11 Texas Tech Red Raiders (-2) Group Score .500, Team Score 4830: 58.4% #10 BYU + 31.1% #14 Utah + 6.8% #32 Houston + 1.5% #53 Kansas State + 1.3% #56 Kansas + 0.7% #70 UCF = 100.0% #20 Arizona State.
12 Vanderbilt Commodores (±0) Group Score .500, Team Score 4792: 35.9% #16 Missouri + 35.0% #17 LSU + 11.4% #23 South Carolina + 10.8% #30 Kentucky + 5.3% #45 Auburn + 1.0% #73 Virginia Tech + 0.6% #83 Utah State = 58.3% #9 Texas + 41.7% #8 Alabama.
13 Tennessee Volunteers (+3) Group Score .500, Team Score 4662: 37.5% #30 Kentucky + 28.8% #35 Mississippi State + 28.3% #37 Florida + 3.0% #75 Syracuse + 1.5% #89 Arkansas + 0.7% #103 UAB + 0.3% #117 New Mexico State = 41.5% #8 Alabama + 41.3% #7 Oklahoma + 17.2% #5 Georgia.
14 Utah Utes (-1) Group Score .500, Team Score 4659: 51.3% #20 Arizona State + 20.8% #39 Cincinnati + 9.2% #50 Baylor + 6.6% #53 Kansas State + 4.7% #62 West Virginia + 4.0% #66 Colorado + 3.2% #69 UCLA + 0.2% #114 Wyoming = 50.8% #11 Texas Tech + 49.2% #10 BYU.
15 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-1) Group Score .500, Team Score 4654: 47.8% #19 USC + 21.5% #29 Navy + 13.2% #41 Pittsburgh + 11.5% #43 NC State + 2.9% #67 Boise State + 1.7% #75 Syracuse + 0.9% #89 Arkansas + 0.5% #102 Purdue = 100.0% #21 Miami + 0.0% #3 Texas A&M.
16 Missouri Tigers (-1) Group Score .500, Team Score 4605: 40.8% #23 South Carolina + 30.1% #35 Mississippi State + 20.2% #45 Auburn + 8.2% #56 Kansas + 0.7% #105 Louisiana = 50.4% #12 Vanderbilt + 24.8% #8 Alabama + 24.7% #7 Oklahoma + 0.0% #3 Texas A&M.
17 LSU Tigers (±0) Group Score .500, Team Score 4600: 49.0% #23 South Carolina + 35.7% #37 Florida + 9.5% #58 Clemson + 2.6% #84 Western Kentucky + 2.0% #89 Arkansas + 1.1% #101 Louisiana Tech + 0.1% SE Louisiana = 57.6% #12 Vanderbilt + 28.3% #8 Alabama + 14.1% #6 Ole Miss + 0.0% #3 Texas A&M.
18 Michigan Wolverines (+1) Group Score .500, Team Score 4571: 35.7% #28 Washington + 21.2% #42 Wisconsin + 16.1% #47 Nebraska + 15.1% #48 Northwestern + 5.5% #64 New Mexico + 3.6% #74 Maryland + 1.4% #90 Michigan State + 0.8% #102 Purdue + 0.6% #107 Central Michigan = 83.7% #19 USC + 16.3% #7 Oklahoma.
19 USC Trojans (-1) Group Score .500, Team Score 4544: 50.0% #18 Michigan + 24.9% #24 Iowa + 11.1% #47 Nebraska + 10.4% #48 Northwestern + 1.4% #86 Missouri State + 1.0% #90 Michigan State + 0.6% #100 Georgia Southern + 0.6% #102 Purdue = 67.9% #25 Illinois + 32.1% #15 Notre Dame + 0.0% #4 Oregon.
20 Arizona State Sun Devils (+1) Group Score .500, Team Score 4491: 51.2% #11 Texas Tech + 18.3% #31 Iowa State + 16.1% #33 TCU + 7.0% #50 Baylor + 3.7% #62 West Virginia + 3.2% #66 Colorado + 0.4% #104 Texas State = 43.5% #35 Mississippi State + 40.4% #32 Houston + 16.1% #14 Utah.
21 Miami Hurricanes (+2) Group Score .500, Team Score 4485: 44.6% #15 Notre Dame + 16.1% #36 South Florida + 16.0% #37 Florida + 11.9% #43 NC State + 5.0% #55 Florida State + 2.6% #73 Virginia Tech + 2.0% #75 Syracuse + 1.9% #77 Stanford = 52.3% #49 Louisville + 47.7% #40 SMU.
22 North Texas Mean Green (+3) Group Score .500, Team Score 4416: 64.2% #29 Navy + 12.5% #65 UTSA + 6.6% #78 Washington State + 5.4% #81 Army + 4.4% #87 Rice + 4.1% #88 Western Michigan + 1.7% #103 UAB + 0.8% #113 South Alabama + 0.2% Lamar + 0.1% #133 Charlotte = 100.0% #36 South Florida.
23 South Carolina Gamecocks (+5) Group Score .500, Team Score 4371: 82.7% #30 Kentucky + 13.2% #73 Virginia Tech + 4.1% #95 Coastal Carolina = 36.0% #17 LSU + 35.1% #16 Missouri + 13.8% #12 Vanderbilt + 6.1% #8 Alabama + 6.1% #7 Oklahoma + 2.9% #6 Ole Miss + 0.0% #3 Texas A&M.
24 Iowa Hawkeyes (+10) Group Score .500, Team Score 4370: 42.5% #42 Wisconsin + 21.8% #52 Minnesota + 16.7% #60 Penn State + 15.3% #61 Rutgers + 3.7% #90 Michigan State = 66.0% #31 Iowa State + 34.0% #19 USC + 0.0% #4 Oregon + 0.0% #1 Indiana.
25 Illinois Fighting Illini (-5) Group Score .500, Team Score 4368: 62.5% #19 USC + 16.5% #51 Duke + 10.4% #61 Rutgers + 6.1% #74 Maryland + 3.0% #88 Western Michigan + 1.5% #102 Purdue = 56.5% #42 Wisconsin + 43.5% #28 Washington + 0.0% #2 Ohio State + 0.0% #1 Indiana.

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