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thatoneguyD13 Ballot for 2025 Week 14

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Nov. 23, 2025, 11:04 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Early season rankings are based largely on expected results versus other ranked teams, and as the season goes leans more heavily on results. By the end of the season, rankings are based entirely on resume. I lean heavily into head to head results and results against common opponents. I also sort teams into 6 tiers based on championship/playoff likelihood. Tier 1: Championship Frontrunners who are highly likely to make the playoffs, Tier 2: Playoff Teams who could conceivably win the championship but are behind Tier 1, Tier 3: Playoff Possibilities who are unlikely to compete for a championship, Tier 4: Teams with an outside shot at making the playoffs, Tier 5: Teams that can't make the playoffs except for winning conference or unprecedented chaos Tier 6: Teams that are eliminated from playoff contention. Tiers 5 and 6 don't enter into the top 25 until very late in the year.

Rank Team Reason
1 Ohio State Buckeyes Tier 1. The Game coming. Loss wouldn't drop them out of the playoffs but it would be a massive disappointment.
2 Indiana Hoosiers Tier 1.
3 Texas A&M Aggies Tier 1.
4 Georgia Bulldogs Tier 1.
5 Ole Miss Rebels Tier 2.
6 Texas Tech Red Raiders Tier 2.
7 Oregon Ducks Tier 2. Win over USC all but clinches their playoff berth.
8 BYU Cougars Tier 3.
9 Oklahoma Sooners Tier 3.
10 Alabama Crimson Tide Tier 3.
11 Miami Hurricanes Tier 3. Odd position where a win against Pitt could clinch a playoff spot but not get them into the ACC title game.
12 Notre Dame Fighting Irish Tier 3.
13 Vanderbilt Commodores Tier 4. A sixth SEC team is possible if Vandy beats Tenn in the final game and just one or two other things happen.
14 Utah Utes Tier 4.
15 Michigan Wolverines Tier 4. The Game coming. Win over OSU might put them in.
16 Virginia Cavaliers Tier 4.
17 USC Trojans Tier 5. Loss against Oregon probably sealed their fate.
18 Texas Longhorns Tier 5. Win against TAMU probably won't put them in the playoffs but I'm sure it would feel nice.
19 Pittsburgh Panthers Tier 5. A win over Miami might not be enough to get them into the title game.
20 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Tier 5.
21 Tennessee Volunteers Tier 5.
22 North Texas Mean Green Tier 5. North Texas has the clear advantage over JMU with comparative performance against Washington State.
23 SMU Mustangs Tier 5. Hard to believe that SMU controls their own destiny to make the playoffs at the moment, but they do.
24 Houston Cougars Tier 6. My first eliminated team in my top 25. They get the slight nod over ASU because of head to head win, but have no shot at the Big 12 title so they're out of the playoffs for sure.
25 Arizona State Sun Devils Tier 5. Could still make it conceivably, but they need a lot of help in the Big 12 race.

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