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Comit22 Ballot for 2025 Week 14

Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Nov. 23, 2025, 10:59 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Dropped: #21 Illinois, #22 Houston, #25 Missouri Next Up: SMU, Washington, Arizona, Wake Forest, Pitt Lot of movement up top this week. Oregon finally gets a statement win vs USC that moves them up from the no-man's land with Utah to right in the thick of it. BYU also gets a very important win plus some of their old wins (namely TCU, Iowa St, and Arizona) have only looked better as of late. If Arizona St debuting at #20 feels high, it does to me too. But the back fifth of the ranking is so weak that they've been bumped up mostly on the strength of their TTU victory. USC doesn't move down because, although my raw numbers have them losing a spot, they'd have lost that spot to Michigan and that head-to-head tiebreaker is too strong to me. It ultimately won't matter much because a Michigan loss to Ohio St would reset the records to even and a Michigan win would vault them way up so it's almost immaterial. Virginia is hanging on by the barest of threads. They're technically #26 this week behind SMU on my pure numbers, but I wasn't willing to leave out only 1 2-loss P5 team. The American is looking very strong with 3 ranked teams and I think there's a serious chance that the American and Sun Belt produce more deserving champions than the ACC, and I don't think that even a Georgia victory could save GT now. With the most likely matchup being Virginia v SMU, I don't really see a way for either of those teams to make enough ground to catch up to James Madison and North Texas. Finally, I think there's a pretty clear top 11 right now and, assuming everyone holds serve next week, I think it'll be very frustrating for whichever of Alabama or Notre Dame gets left out for the American/ACC/Sun Belt champion. I think the only other team that might be able to crash the party would be Michigan, as a win vs Ohio St would immediately jump them up to Alabama/Notre Dame to me and would making choosing which 1 of them to send to the playoff very difficult. I already said I don't think a GT win over Georgia would cut it, and a Texas win over A&M would be compelling but only moves them up to the Utah no-man's land to me, just barely below consideration for the cut-line. I also don't think Vandy can make it up with a win over Tennessee and there's no other big games to consider. It would take losses from multiple of Notre Dame/Alabama/Oklahoma/Ole Miss/Oregon for me to think anyone outside of the top 11 and Michigan has a shot. As for the ACC, I doubt I will be ranking the conference champion above North Texas or James Madison, so I think barring Miami winning it via chaos it's hoping for something weird to happen with the American.

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