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NotSoSuperNerd Ballot for 2025 Week 14

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Nov. 23, 2025, 9:34 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Bradley-Terry rankings for the expected end-of-season win totals; Pr[A beats B] = 0.5+0.5*tanh(rA-rB). Prediction model is a hybrid Kalman filter, driven by the win margin of each game.

Rank Team Reason
1 Indiana Hoosiers 4.581 [11.98 - 0.02]
2 Ohio State Buckeyes 3.263 [11.79 - 0.21]
3 Texas A&M Aggies 2.846 [11.48 - 0.52]
4 Georgia Bulldogs 2.783 [10.84 - 1.16]
5 Ole Miss Rebels 2.620 [10.78 - 1.22]
6 Oregon Ducks 2.536 [10.69 - 1.31]
7 Oklahoma Sooners 2.392 [9.75 - 2.25]
8 BYU Cougars 2.332 [10.92 - 1.08]
9 Texas Tech Red Raiders 2.286 [10.92 - 1.08]
10 Alabama Crimson Tide 2.282 [9.67 - 2.33]
11 Texas Longhorns 2.243 [8.52 - 3.48]
12 Vanderbilt Commodores 1.923 [9.41 - 2.59]
13 Utah Utes 1.824 [9.85 - 2.15]
14 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 1.779 [9.98 - 2.02]
15 Tennessee Volunteers 1.756 [8.59 - 3.41]
16 Michigan Wolverines 1.750 [9.21 - 2.79]
17 USC Trojans 1.553 [8.95 - 3.05]
18 LSU Tigers 1.488 [7.25 - 4.75]
19 Arizona State Sun Devils 1.387 [8.54 - 3.46]
20 Miami Hurricanes 1.364 [9.63 - 2.37]
21 Missouri Tigers 1.335 [7.59 - 4.41]
22 Washington Huskies 1.215 [8.31 - 3.69]
23 Tulane Green Wave 1.171 [9.97 - 2.03]
24 Arizona Wildcats 1.138 [8.46 - 3.54]
25 Illinois Fighting Illini 1.123 [7.73 - 4.27]

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