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LegionMammal978 Ballot for 2025 Week 13

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Nov. 16, 2025, 9:57 a.m.

Overall Rationale: I call this the "transitive W/L rankings". Rule 1: The ranking is based only on this season's Ws and Ls. There is no inertia: every week is counted equally. Margin of victory, past performance, conferences and divisions, etc. are not considered. I've filtered the top 25 to FBS teams, but games in lower divisions are included in the calculations. A tie counts as ½ W + ½ L. Rule 2: If team A has transitively beaten team B, but team B has not transitively beaten team A, then team A goes above team B. Rule 3: Within groups of teams that have all transitively beaten each other ("circles of suck"), teams receive a Team Score from a "retroactive Elo" model. Ordinary Elo scoring has to react to each game in sequence, but this model retroactively solves to find the simplest possible explanation (formally, the maximum likelihood estimate) for the Ws and Ls within the group. The overall effect is that each team's wins are precisely balanced against their losses to determine their Team Score. Rule 4: To compare between groups not connected by transitive Ws nor Ls, I add two fictitious teams, one who has lost to everyone and one who has beaten everyone, and use the same "retroactive Elo" model to place every group between the two. Then, I stretch the score gap between the bottom and top to infinity. In the limit, every group will end up a constant fraction of the way between the two, and this fraction becomes its Group Score. This process also adds a constant offset to the average Team Score of each group, which can affect cross-group comparisons but does not affect relative scores within each group. Rationales: For each team, I list the computed balance between its wins and losses to form the Team Score. The full ranking can be found at <https://gist.github.com/LegionMammal978/b31b76fa55beffcfdc252a5abe5b3cfc>. All data is sourced from CollegeFootballData.com.

Rank Team Reason
1 Indiana Hoosiers Group Score .833, Team Score 1551.
2 Ohio State Buckeyes Group Score .750, Team Score 2527.
3 Texas A&M Aggies Group Score .750, Team Score 2516.
4 Oregon Ducks Group Score .667, Team Score 3103.
5 Georgia Bulldogs Group Score .500, Team Score 5268: 60.2% #6 Ole Miss + 25.0% #11 Texas + 8.4% #16 Tennessee + 2.1% #27 Kentucky + 1.6% #36 Florida + 1.6% #37 Mississippi State + 1.0% #44 Auburn = 100.0% #7 Alabama.
6 Ole Miss Rebels Group Score .500, Team Score 5226: 67.3% #8 Oklahoma + 15.3% #17 LSU + 4.5% #27 Kentucky + 4.5% #28 South Carolina + 4.5% #29 Tulane + 3.4% #36 Florida + 0.3% #74 Washington State + 0.2% #85 Arkansas = 100.0% #5 Georgia.
7 Alabama Crimson Tide Group Score .500, Team Score 5096: 47.9% #5 Georgia + 19.8% #12 Vanderbilt + 10.6% #15 Missouri + 9.8% #16 Tennessee + 8.6% #17 LSU + 2.7% #28 South Carolina + 0.5% #59 Wisconsin = 65.1% #54 Florida State + 34.9% #8 Oklahoma.
8 Oklahoma Sooners Group Score .500, Team Score 5075: 59.5% #7 Alabama + 18.6% #16 Tennessee + 13.8% #19 Michigan + 5.2% #28 South Carolina + 2.6% #44 Auburn + 0.3% #77 Temple + 0.1% Illinois State = 66.9% #11 Texas + 33.1% #6 Ole Miss.
9 Texas Tech Red Raiders Group Score .500, Team Score 5035: 54.4% #10 BYU + 29.3% #13 Utah + 12.1% #22 Houston + 1.7% #52 Kansas State + 1.6% #53 Kansas + 0.8% #64 UCF = 100.0% #21 Arizona State.
10 BYU Cougars Group Score .500, Team Score 5020: 57.2% #13 Utah + 14.2% #26 Arizona + 11.4% #32 Iowa State + 7.4% #40 TCU + 5.3% #47 East Carolina + 2.1% #61 West Virginia + 2.0% #63 Colorado + 0.5% #87 Stanford = 100.0% #9 Texas Tech.
11 Texas Longhorns Group Score .500, Team Score 5007: 52.7% #8 Oklahoma + 36.9% #12 Vanderbilt + 5.9% #27 Kentucky + 4.4% #37 Mississippi State = 83.9% #36 Florida + 16.1% #5 Georgia.
12 Vanderbilt Commodores Group Score .500, Team Score 4950: 43.1% #15 Missouri + 36.2% #17 LSU + 12.6% #28 South Carolina + 6.4% #44 Auburn + 1.5% #66 Virginia Tech + 0.3% #97 Utah State = 58.1% #11 Texas + 41.9% #7 Alabama.
13 Utah Utes Group Score .500, Team Score 4851: 52.8% #21 Arizona State + 24.7% #33 Cincinnati + 10.4% #50 Baylor + 4.9% #61 West Virginia + 4.6% #63 Colorado + 2.1% #76 UCLA + 0.4% #108 Wyoming = 51.5% #10 BYU + 48.5% #9 Texas Tech.
14 Notre Dame Fighting Irish Group Score .500, Team Score 4830: 54.0% #18 USC + 20.6% #30 Navy + 12.1% #42 NC State + 9.3% #48 Pittsburgh + 2.5% #68 Boise State + 1.0% #85 Arkansas + 0.5% #98 Purdue = 100.0% #23 Miami.
15 Missouri Tigers Group Score .500, Team Score 4810: 38.5% #28 South Carolina + 29.8% #37 Mississippi State + 20.5% #44 Auburn + 10.8% #53 Kansas + 0.4% #110 Louisiana = 65.7% #12 Vanderbilt + 34.3% #7 Alabama.
16 Tennessee Volunteers Group Score .500, Team Score 4795: 51.9% #27 Kentucky + 40.3% #37 Mississippi State + 4.2% #75 Syracuse + 2.4% #85 Arkansas + 0.9% #105 UAB + 0.3% #120 New Mexico State = 44.0% #8 Oklahoma + 39.7% #7 Alabama + 16.3% #5 Georgia.
17 LSU Tigers Group Score .500, Team Score 4768: 48.1% #28 South Carolina + 37.9% #36 Florida + 10.7% #56 Clemson + 2.3% #85 Arkansas + 0.9% #103 Louisiana Tech + 0.1% SE Louisiana = 56.7% #12 Vanderbilt + 28.7% #7 Alabama + 14.6% #6 Ole Miss. [In this model, < #3 Texas A&M does not currently count against LSU's Team Score, since it is in a higher group.]
18 USC Trojans Group Score .500, Team Score 4754: 49.6% #19 Michigan + 21.7% #34 Iowa + 18.5% #38 Nebraska + 6.3% #55 Northwestern + 1.6% #80 Missouri State + 0.8% #92 Michigan State + 0.7% #96 Georgia Southern + 0.6% #98 Purdue = 58.5% #20 Illinois + 41.5% #14 Notre Dame.
19 Michigan Wolverines Group Score .500, Team Score 4733: 39.5% #31 Washington + 32.7% #38 Nebraska + 11.3% #55 Northwestern + 9.1% #59 Wisconsin + 4.3% #70 New Mexico + 1.5% #92 Michigan State + 1.1% #98 Purdue + 0.6% #109 Central Michigan = 79.3% #18 USC + 20.7% #8 Oklahoma.
20 Illinois Fighting Illini Group Score .500, Team Score 4717: 73.8% #18 USC + 12.8% #51 Duke + 7.5% #60 Rutgers + 3.4% #73 Maryland + 1.5% #90 Western Michigan + 1.0% #98 Purdue = 100.0% #31 Washington. [In this model, < #1 Indiana and < #2 Ohio State do not currently count against Illinois' Team Score, since they are in higher groups.]
21 Arizona State Sun Devils Group Score .500, Team Score 4688: 56.3% #9 Texas Tech + 18.0% #32 Iowa State + 12.8% #40 TCU + 8.3% #50 Baylor + 4.1% #61 West Virginia + 0.4% #106 Texas State = 48.0% #37 Mississippi State + 34.0% #22 Houston + 18.0% #13 Utah.
22 Houston Cougars Group Score .500, Team Score 4666: 51.3% #21 Arizona State + 34.6% #26 Arizona + 6.6% #63 Colorado + 5.4% #64 UCF + 1.6% #88 Rice + 0.3% Stephen F. Austin + 0.1% #128 Oregon State + 0.1% #131 Oklahoma State = 89.7% #61 West Virginia + 10.3% #9 Texas Tech.
23 Miami Hurricanes Group Score .500, Team Score 4660: 45.0% #14 Notre Dame + 17.4% #36 Florida + 15.5% #39 South Florida + 12.7% #42 NC State + 6.1% #54 Florida State + 2.1% #75 Syracuse + 1.1% #87 Stanford = 50.7% #45 SMU + 49.3% #43 Louisville.
24 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Group Score .500, Team Score 4619: 33.1% #41 Wake Forest + 20.9% #51 Duke + 14.5% #56 Clemson + 11.7% #63 Colorado + 9.1% #66 Virginia Tech + 5.6% #75 Syracuse + 5.1% #77 Temple = 100.0% #42 NC State.
25 North Texas Mean Green Group Score .500, Team Score 4581: 64.9% #30 Navy + 13.4% #65 Army + 8.2% #74 Washington State + 7.0% #79 UTSA + 3.7% #90 Western Michigan + 1.8% #105 UAB + 0.5% Lamar + 0.4% #122 South Alabama + 0.1% #132 Charlotte = 100.0% #39 South Florida.

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